EUROPEAN COMMODITIES UPDATE: A subdued Dollar keeps commodities underpinned

Crude Oil: WTI Jun +0.3%, Brent Jul +0.1%

• Stuck in lacklustre trade at the time of writing, with a lack of fresh energy specific catalysts ahead of Ukraine and Russia’s leaders meeting in Turkey on Thursday, along with the US-Saudi Investment Forum.


• Price action this morning is tracking the softer dollar, which is giving back some gains made at Monday’s rally.


• In terms of geopolitics, it is unclear whether US President Trump will be participating in the potential Russia-Ukraine talks in Turkey after his trip to Saudi Arabia, though updates from Ukrainian officials suggest the Ukrainian President will only meet his Russian counterpart, and not other members of the delegation.


• On today’s docket, Trump will be speaking at the Saudi Investment Forum at 15:00 BST. We are also expecting the weekly private stocks data, and before that, the US CPI.


• The above geopolitics and trade remain the focal points for the European gas benchmark, which, like crude, is in rangebound trade between EUR 34.93-35.78/MWh.

Precious Metals: Gold +0.6%, Silver +1.6%, Palladium +0.2%

• Spot gold is firmer and benefiting from the weak dollar, as well as a reversal of yesterday’s dismal performance in the haven space.


• Participants await US CPI in which analysts expect US headline CPI to rise +0.3% M/M in April (prev. -0.1%), with the annual rate seen unchanged at 2.4% Y/Y. The core rate is also expected to rise +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.1%), with the annual rate of core CPI seen unchanged at 2.8% Y/Y.


• Specifically for price action, the yellow metal sits between its relatively narrow USD 3,216.05-3,265.45/oz range, and at the time of writing, is trading on either side of the USD 3,250/oz mark.

Base Metals: 3M LME Copper +0.7%

• Base metals are broadly in the green, having seen sideways trade overnight after retreating yesterday despite the positive tariff developments, with prices subdued by recent dollar strength.


• Copper is benefiting from the softer dollar and resides in the middle of its USD 9,488.3-9,572.45/t range, after a pullback from highs at 09:00 BST, where it tested resistance at USD 9,575/t.

13 May 2025 - 10:15- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk