EUROPEAN COMMODITES UPDATE: Crude trims initial gains, metals glean strength from the dovish Fed source report

WTI/Brent: -0.1%/U/C

• Began the European morning on the front foot, taking impetus from the softer USD and improving risk tone. Drivers that were sufficient to lift WTI and Brent to peaks of USD 65.57/bbl and USD 67/08/bbl, respectively.


• However, as the morning progressed and despite or perhaps in-part because of the lack of newsflow (i.e. the Middle East situation appears to be stabilising), the benchmarks have lost ground with WTI now below USD 65.00/bbl and threatening a move into the red.


• As intimated, newsflow has been slow. A handful of geopolitical updates but nothing that has impacted the macro narrative with market focus firmly on the WSJ-Fed report and upcoming macro events.


• If the pressure continues and intensifies, then USD 63.54/bbl from the 11th June is the next significant support mark in WTI, similarly, Brent looks to USD 65.73/bbl.

Gold: +0.4%

• Firmer given the softer USD and lower yield environment on the back of the WSJ-Fed report around an early Fed Chair nominee announcement. A move that has been interpreted as one to undermine the authority of Chair Powell, with a dovish move occurring on the back of it given the list of potential nominees all fall on that side of the hawk-dove discussion.


• XAU itself gleaning some further impetus on the narrative that the undermining of Chair Powell draws into question the Fed's credibility and/or independence.


• XAU up to a USD 3350/oz peak, firmer but yet to approach USD 3369/oz or USD 3398/oz from Tuesday and Monday, respectively. Similarly, XAG is bid but has made a fresh WTD peak though is yet to eclipse USD 37.13/oz from last week.


• Ahead, focus will be on the numerous US data points and Fed speak; the latter will be scrutinised for any insight into the dovish tilt that some of Chair Powell’s remarks had, and of course for their views on the reported early-announcement of the next Chair.

Copper: +1.1%

• Firmer, benefiting from the increasingly constructive risk tone and the discussed USD pressure.


• Action that has been sufficient to lift 3M LME Copper to a USD 9.85k peak, the highest it has been since late-March but still shy of the USD 10k handle and the YTD peak at USD 10.16k thereafter.

26 Jun 2025 - 10:15- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk