EUROPEAN COMMODITES UPDATE: Crude curtailed by Saudi LPG adjustments, XAU resumes its ascent

WTI/Brent: -0.6%/-0.6%

• Crude was initially contained following the pushback from the OPEC Secretariat around reports that OPEC+ is said to be planning to increase production by 500k BPD. The morning saw the benchmarks oscillate in relatively limited ranges.


• However, as the morning progressed a bout of selling pressure emerged. No clear or overt fresh fundamental driver behind the move, though it is potentially a function of increased attention on Saudi Arabian Oil Co. cutting benchmark prices of LPG by more than forecast.


• As it stands, WTI and Brent are currently holding modestly in the red but off lows in respective USD 62.02-62.89/bbl and USD 65.69-66.57/bbl parameters.


• Elsewhere, the Italian Energy Ministry said the EU has not reached a deal to ban Russian LNG before 2028, as some nations have been unable to secure alternative suppliers. As a reminder, diversifying energy purchases away from Russia and ideally to the US was the main condition US President Trump outlined for exerting further pressure on Russia over the Ukraine war.


• On that point, it is worth bearing in mind remarks from Finnish President Stubb that Trump is moving from the “carrot” to the “stick”, with regards to sanctions on Russia.


• From a European perspective, Free Radio’s Jozwiak reports that a deal is not expected today on sanctions, but one could occur on Friday.

Gold: +1.0%

• Spot gold has rebounded from the profit taking seen on Tuesday, climbing across the European morning as the risk tone got hit by the government shutdown. While the general risk tone is off worst, XAU is yet to lose its allure and remains near its latest ATH of USD 3895/oz.


• Upside spurred by the uncertainty the shutdown presents and also the weaker USD we are seeing, as is often the case during a US shutdown. Ahead, we look to ADP and ISM, releases that may draw greater attention on account of the suspension of weekly jobless claims and the NFP report.

Copper: +0.2%

• 3M LME Copper is marginally firmer but veering towards the lower end of the day’s current USD 10.26-10.36k band. Focus primarily on the overarching macro narrative as outlined above.


• While only modest, the fact the space is firmer during the broader market pressure we are seeing and with China away for Golden Week is notable.


• Updates in the space include a fire at Glencore’s Lomas Bayas copper mine in Chile.

01 Oct 2025 - 10:20- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk