ECB SPF (Q3). HICP Inflation: 2022 7.3% (prev. 6.0%; ECB June 6.8%,) 2023 3.6% (prev. 2.4%; ECB June 2.1%), 2024 2.1% (prev. 1.9%; ECB June 2.1%), Longer-term/2027 2.2% (prev. 2026 2.1%)

Inflation:

• Regarding the near-term outlook, respondents cited energy and food prices as the main factors behind their upward revisions to the 2022 and 2023 inflation expectations. In addition to the direct impact on consumer prices of food and energy, with gas mentioned more often than oil, respondents also noted that indirect effects working through the production chain were behind the higher expectations for HICP inflation excluding food and energy. In the previous round, respondents generally did not consider underlying price pressures to have increased.
• For the shorter and medium-term horizons, quantitative indicators of uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook increased to record levels and the balance of risks was assessed to be clearly on the upside.
• Similar to the previous round, there was a number of respondents who reported longer-term inflation expectations above 2.5% (8, or 17%, in the third quarter of 2022 compared with 5, or 11%, in the second quarter of 2022 round).

Growth:

• SPF forecasts for the second quarter of 2022 were broadly similar to those of the June 2022 Eurosystem staff Macroeconomic Projection Exercise, but were more pessimistic for the following three quarters (by about 0.3 percentage points per quarter).

via ECB