Daily US Equity Opening News - Trump softens tone on China over the weekend; WBD rejects PSKY takeover bid; FAST EPS miss

TODAY'S AGENDA:

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  US INDEX FUTURES: ES +1.3%, NQ +1.7%, YM +0.9%, RUT +1.6%


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  DAY AHEAD: The Columbus Day holiday in the US means that cash bond markets are closed, although equity markets are open today. In Canada, it is Thanksgiving. President Trump is in the Middle East to mark a deal ending the Israel-Hamas war and greet hostages freed after two years, and includes stops in Israel and Egypt to celebrate the agreement and plan next regional steps. In France, PM Lecornu is due to deliver remarks later today after the unveiling of a new government cabinet, his second attempt in a week to stabilise the government aims to secure support for the 2026 budget, however, opposition from the far-left and far-right persists, and the Socialists remain undecided, with pension reform at the centre of the impasse On today's speakers' slate, Philly Fed's Paulson (2026 voter) will speak at a conference on the global economy in transition.


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  BROKER MOVES: EL upgraded at Goldman Sachs; INTC, GFS, TXN downgraded at BofA, AMAT upgraded. For the full list, click here.
  


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  MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: Mag-7, WBD, BX, BA, JPM, AZN, JEF, FAST. For the full list, click here.
  


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  US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: AMZN, MSFT, BAC, BLK, BX, CG, GS, MSFT, SMCI, LLY, PFE. For the full list, click here.
  


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  WEEK AHEAD: This week's highlights include the start of earnings season, China inflation and trade data, UK GDP. On the corporate reporting front, big banks will kick-off earnings season from Tuesday, where the likes of BLK, JPM, WFC, GS and C will report.


• Click here for Newsquawk's week ahead briefing.


• Click here for Newsquawk's weekly US earnings estimates.

TRADE

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  US-China - US President Trump eased market jitters regarding US-China trade relations after posting on Truth Social that it "will all be fine" with China, praising Xi, noting the meeting with Xi isn't cancelled and "might still happen". The post follows Trump earlier saying he will impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports from November 1st, and add export controls on critical software, after Beijing tightened rare earth export rules. US Vice President JD Vance urged China to “choose the path of reason,” suggesting the US may hold greater leverage if the dispute continues. China criticised Trump’s threat as “a typical example of US double standards,” warning of possible countermeasures. Beijing said it was “not afraid” of a trade war. This morning, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump's post on Friday turned the tables, noting China made a miscalculation. Bessent said 100% tariffs do not have to happen, and the US is going to reject licensing requirements.


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  Rare Earths, US-Australia - The Pentagon plans to purchase up to USD 1bln of critical minerals for stockpiling, according to the FT, citing recent Defense Logistics Agency filings. The move follows new Chinese export controls on rare earths and other essential materials for defence and technology manufacturing. Separately, Australia is considering a resources deal with the US involving mandated floor prices for critical minerals and funding for new rare earth projects, The Age reported. Officials are discussing contributions to an AUD 1.2bln strategic reserve ahead of PM Albanese’s meeting with President Trump on October 20th, amid efforts to reduce Western reliance on Chinese rare earths.


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  US-China, Boeing (BA) - President Trump said the US may impose export controls on Boeing plane parts in response to China’s rare earth export limits. Boeing has 222 jets on order in China, representing less than 5% of its backlog, so any financial impact is expected to be small. China’s COMAC C919 production has also been slowed by US export restrictions.

TECH

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  NVIDIA (NVDA) - US Treasury Secretary Bessent, on whether there have been talks to have the US take a stake in NVIDIA, says "not that I was a part of".


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  Apple (AAPL) - Apple is in late-stage talks to acquire the engineers and technology of computer vision startup Prompt AI, CNBC reports. The 11-person company’s Seemour app, which enhances home security cameras, will be retired. Its technology is expected to be integrated into Apple’s HomeKit division. Meanwhile, Apple may unveil an M5 iPad, MacBook Pro, and Vision Pro this week, Bloomberg reports.


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  Qualcomm (QCOM) - China’s regulator said Qualcomm admitted it failed to notify authorities when it completed its acquisition of Israel’s Autotalks in June, despite prior warnings. The State Administration for Market Regulation has launched an antitrust investigation. Separately, Qualcomm CEO Amon met with Indian PM Modi to discuss AI, innovation, and skilling; Modi highlighted Qualcomm’s commitment to India’s semiconductor and AI initiatives, praising the country’s talent and scale for developing transformative technologies.


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  AMD (AMD) - AMD CEO highlighted the company’s competitive stance in the chip industry, focusing on taking market share from larger rivals like NVIDIA (NVDA), amid a broader tech landscape shaped by AI developments and policy discussions, WSJ reports.


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  GlobalFoundries (GFS) - Downgraded at BofA to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral'. The firm doesn't see a specific catalyst for any immediate decline in the stock, but believes the company will need to display faster gross margin improvement and pricing power than what has been seen in the last two years.


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  Texas Instruments (TXN) - Downgraded at BofA to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' with USD 190 PT (prev. 208). The firm appreciates the "high quality" of TI's assets and its execution consistency, but believes the turmoil caused by global tariffs could keep the lid on any near-to medium-term demand improvement in the industrial economy.


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  Intel (INTC) - Downgraded at BofA to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral. The firm writes that the recent USD 80bln jump in Intel's market cap more than reflects its improved balance sheet and external foundry potential, while the competitive outlook remains challenged with "no discernible AI portfolio/strategy," uncompetitive server CPU, and less flexibility now than before in divesting loss-making manufacturing. The stock has come "too far, too fast" when considering Intel's still-challenged fundamentals, BofA says.


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  Applied Materials (AMAT) - Upgraded at BofA to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a USD 250 PT (prev. 180). The firm cites prospects for WFE outgrowth in calendar year 2026 for the first time in four years due to robust DRAM investments, behind the downgrade. BofA also argues "an attractive valuation gap to large peers".


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  Micron (MU) - Double upgraded at BNP Paribas Exane to 'Outperform' from 'Underperform' with a USD PT of 270 (prev. 100). The firm now "fully embraces" high-bandwidth memory as a sustainable, separate growth vector and believes Micron and the market are in the "early innings of a memory supercycle."


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  Fair Isaac Corp (FICO) - Downgraded at Oppenheimer to 'Perform' from 'Outperform'. The firm writes that given the combination of regulatory uncertainty, potential share loss to VantageScore, and a 10% stock gain since the announcement on October 1, its analysis suggests FICO's valuation is "now full."


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  LG Electronics - Expects Q3 operating profit of KRW 688.9bln, down 8.4% Y/Y, but above market consensus, supported by strong affiliate performance despite challenging market conditions.


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  xAI - CEO Musk said they are building world models for use in gaming and robotics, and has hired two AI researchers, Zeeshan Patel and Ethan He, from NVIDIA (NVDA) to work on them, FT reports. xAI will release a "great AI-generated game before the end of next year."


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  Wayve - UK AI/auto startup, Wayve, is in discussions with Microsoft (MSFT) and SoftBank (SFTBY) to raise up to USD 2bln of new funding in a deal that could value Wayve at ~USD 8bln, FT reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

FINANCIALS

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  JPMorgan (JPM) - Announced the Security and Resiliency Initiative, a USD 1.5tln, 10-year plan to facilitate, finance and invest in industries critical to national economic security and resiliency. As part of this new initiative, JPMorganChase will make direct equity and venture capital investments of up to USD 10bln to help select companies primarily in the US enhance their growth, spur innovation, and accelerate strategic manufacturing.


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  Jefferies (JEF) - Said its exposure to bankrupt auto parts maker First Brands is limited to USD 43mln in receivables and USD 2mln in loans via its Point Bonita fund, saying any losses are readily absorbable. First Brands, with USD 11.6bln in liabilities, is currently facing a US DoJ probe.


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  Morgan Stanley (MS), Jefferies (JEF) - Morgan Stanley’s asset management arm has sought to withdraw part of its investment from Jefferies’ Point Bonita Capital fund, which holds around one-quarter of its 3bln USD trade-finance portfolio in receivables linked to bankrupt auto parts maker First Brands, according to Bloomberg.


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  Blackstone (BX), Tritax Big Box Reit (BBOX LN) - Blackstone is in advanced talks to sell around GBP 1bln of logistics assets to London-listed Tritax Big Box Reit, potentially receiving part of the payment in Tritax equity, Sky reports. The deal could make Blackstone one of Tritax’s largest shareholders, following a recent public bidding dispute over Warehouse Reit.


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  Blackstone (BX) - In the early stages of considering a possible cash offer for self-storage company Big Yellow Group, Reuters reports. Big Yellow confirmed that it has held meetings with a "small number" of parties to discuss a range of options, including a potential sale, but said that it has not received any formal approach and is not currently in discussions with any party regarding a sale. Blackstone has a November 10 deadline to make a firm offer or walk away.


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  Bank of America (BAC) - Plans a significant risk transfer on USD 3bln of private markets loans, Bloomberg reports. BBG says that the portfolio underlying the potential transaction consists of subscription lines. Final terms are subject to discussions with investors.


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  Goldman Sachs (GS) - Lost more than a dozen senior investment bankers this year, a higher number than normal, after internal shakeups and a sluggish start to 2025 drove them to seek new opportunities, according to Reuters, citing three sources familiar with the situation. Some had left because they expected to be passed over for promotions this year, including to Goldman's elite partner class, while others exited because they expected meagre bonuses after dealmaking stalled in the first half.


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  PayPal (PYPL) - Downgraded at Goldman Sachs to 'Sell' from 'Neutral', believing PayPal will face several transaction margin headwinds in 2026, including interest rate headwinds and the lapping of a reacceleration of its credit products. Goldman sees less visibility for PayPal's branded checkout reacceleration in the near term, given softer trends in Germany, tariff disruptions in the US, and competing wallet form factors.


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  Lloyds (LYG) - Increased its motor finance compensation provision by GBP 800mln, bringing the total to GBP 1.95bln; the higher provision reflects a rising likelihood of more historical cases being eligible for redress.


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  Galaxy Digital (GLXY) - Announced a USD 460mln private investment from a major asset manager, involving the purchase of 9.03mln shares from the company and 3.75mln shares from executives, including the CEO, at USD 36/shr. The transaction is expected to close around October 17th.

INDUSTRIALS

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  Fastenal Co (FAST) Q3 25 (USD): EPS 0.29 (exp. 0.3), Revenue 2.13bln (exp. 2.13bln); Cut FY2025 net capex outlook. Commentary: Q3 price-cost dynamics had a neutral effect on gross profit margins. Company navigating tariffs, aiming to maintain gross profit margins amid inflation. Market conditions remain sluggish. Price contributed 240-270bps, lower than expected, but pricing actions continue to progress.


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  Boeing (BA) - President Trump said the US may impose export controls on Boeing plane parts in response to China’s rare earth export limits. Boeing has 222 jets on order in China, representing less than 5% of its backlog, so any financial impact is expected to be small. China’s COMAC C919 production has also been slowed by US export restrictions.


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  Bloom Energy (BE) - Announced a USD 5bln strategic partnership with Brookfield to implement AI infrastructure; to announce European AI factory site this year. At the centre of the new partnership, Brookfield will invest up to USD 5bln to deploy Bloom's advanced fuel cell technology.


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  Caterpillar (CAT), RPMGlobal (RUL AT) - Caterpillar acquired ASX-listed mining software firm RPMGlobal for about USD 1bln after offering AUD 5/shr in September (33% premium vs the August 28th closing price). RPMGlobal will be delisted following the deal. The acquisition awaits approvals from the Foreign Investment Review Board, the competition regulator, and shareholders.


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  Delta Air Lines, Aeromexico - Delta and Aeromexico have sued the US government, contesting an order requiring them to dissolve their joint venture by January 1st. The partnership allows coordination of scheduling, pricing, and capacity for US-Mexico flights.


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  Spirit Airlines (FLYY), AerCap (AER) - Spirit has secured Bankruptcy Court approval for a USD 475mln debtor-in-possession financing facility from existing bondholders and an agreement with AerCap. The deal includes a USD 150mln payment from AerCap, rejection of 27 aircraft leases, resolution of all disputes, future delivery of 30 aircraft, and significant operating cost reductions.


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  Leonardo DRS (DRS) - Launched SAGEcore, a software platform integrating AI, advanced sensors, and edge computing; the platform is designed for tactical edge operations, enabling real-time situational awareness and decision-making.


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  Russia Fuel Subsidies - Russian President Putin relaxed fuel subsidy rules for refiners, allowing continued aid even if diesel and gasoline wholesale prices exceed thresholds. The decree, effective from October 1st to May 1st, aims to support the industry amid intensified Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure.

HEALTHCARE

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  AstraZeneca (AZN) - President Trump announced a deal with AstraZeneca to lower consumer drug prices in exchange for tariff relief, marking the second major White House agreement with a pharmaceutical company aimed at reducing healthcare costs for Americans. AstraZeneca will offer significant discounts across its prescription drug portfolio.


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  Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Discontinued its cell therapy R&D, shifting focus to obesity and diabetes treatments, and is seeking partners with suitable capabilities and manufacturing capacity to advance its innovations; the move follows ongoing efforts to find a cure for type 1 diabetes amid broader headcount reductions.


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  Eli Lilly (LLY) - South Africa's Aspen Pharmacare said it had secured regulatory approval to market Eli Lilly's blockbuster diabetes and obesity drug, Mounjaro, for chronic weight management in the country, Reuters reports. The greenlight follows Aspen's earlier approval and launch of the drug, chemically called tirzepatide, in South Africa last December as a treatment for Type 2 diabetes. Aspen, a sales agent for Lilly, will launch Mounjaro for weight management in South Africa as an easy-to-use KwikPen injector device. The company has been betting on Mounjaro's imminent launch to compete against Novo Nordisk's rival product, Wegovy, which the Danish drugmaker had debuted in South Africa in August, eight months after Eli Lilly.


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  Regeneron (REGN) - Reported updated data for DB-OTO, its gene therapy targeting profound hearing loss from OTOF variants. In the pivotal CHORD trial, 11 of 12 participants showed clinically meaningful hearing improvement, including three reaching normal hearing. Eight with longer follow-up maintained or improved hearing, and all three completing speech assessments demonstrated significant gains.


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  Incyte (INCY) - Announced Phase 1 results for INCA33890, a TGFbetaR2PD-1 bispecific antibody, and INCB161734, a selective oral KRAS G12D inhibitor. Both will be presented at ESMO 2025. The company highlighted positive early findings supporting further development for advanced solid tumours, including colorectal and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.


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  Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Urged shareholders to reject Tutanota’s unsolicited mini-tender offer to buy up to 500,000 shares at 145/shr, noting the offer is below market value and subject to conditions. The company said it has no affiliation with Tutanota and advised investors not to tender shares. Meanwhile, the FDA approved on Friday labelling changes for the blood cancer therapy of Johnson & Johnson and its partner Legend Biotech to include a warning for a potentially fatal gastrointestinal condition.


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  Zoetis (ZTS) - Said the EMA’s Committee for Veterinary Medicinal Products issued a positive opinion recommending EU approval of Lenivia for reducing osteoarthritis pain in dogs. The European Commission’s decision is expected in Q4 2025, with commercial launch in 2026 pending approval.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

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  Tesla (TSLA) - Launched its lower-priced Model Y Standard variant in Europe, with prices starting at EUR 39,990 in Germany, NOK 421,996 in Norway, and SEK 499,990 in Sweden. The model features reduced interior amenities and no standard Autosteer, aiming to boost demand in a softening European EV market. Separately, Tesla sold ~5,400 of the Cybertruck pickup trucks last quarter, -62.6% Y/Y, according to Business Insider, citing data from Cox Automotive. Elsewhere, Tesla China VP Zhu says the Shanghai gigafactory began a production ramp-up in Q4.


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  Amazon (AMZN) - Hiring 250k people this holiday season.


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  General Motors (GM) - In 2021, General Motors invested in rare-earth magnet production in the US as part of its effort to cut reliance on China, WSJ reports. Therefore, GM is set to be the only US automaker with a large direct supply of American-made rare-earth magnets from multiple factories. This gives GM a major advantage as China introduces tighter regulations on the export of rare-earth magnets.


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  Hyundai Motor (HYMTF) - Hyundai Motor’s Georgia plant, recently targeted in one of the largest US immigration raids, had a reputation as a dangerous construction site. Since 2022, three workers have died and over a dozen suffered serious injuries, including falls without harnesses and forklift accidents, according to a WSJ review of federal records.

MATERIALS

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  Cobalt - Cobalt prices reached a 3-year high as export restrictions in the DRC, the world’s largest producer, threaten shortages. A new quota system replacing the ban from Thursday could push the market into deficit next year, reports suggest. Since the plan’s announcement last month, cobalt hydroxide and refined metal prices have risen over 20%.


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  Codelco - Acquired a stake in Robert Friedland’s I-Pulse, which uses electricity to break rocks, aiming to improve efficiency at its ageing copper mines. Terms were not disclosed. The US-based firm, with labs in France, counts Rio Tinto (RIO), Newmont (NEM) and Teck Resources (TECK) among its investors.


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  Gold/silver - BofA lifted its gold price forecasts after spot gold hit its USD 4,000/oz forecast; said a 14% increase of investment demand – similar to what was seen this year – could lift gold to USD 5,000/oz, a 28% demand increase could see a rally to USD 6,000/oz. Still expect further upside in 2026: Gold potentially rising to USD 5,000/oz (USD 4,400 average), Silver potentially rising to USD 65/oz (USD 56.25/oz average). Downside risks to watch: US mid-term election outcomes impacting policy implementation; Possible Fed hawkish pivot if data improves; Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs sees the most likely medium-term path for silver prices as one of further gains, as Fed cuts attract inflows. However, in the near term, GS sees greater volatility and downside risk than for gold, reflecting silver’s smaller and less liquid market.

COMMUNICATIONS

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  Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - Warner Bros. Discovery has reportedly rejected Paramount Skydance’s initial takeover bid of around USD 20/shr, deeming the offer too low. Paramount may respond by raising its bid, approaching shareholders directly, or securing additional support from a financial partner. WBD CEO Zaslav told Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison to stop with low-ball expressions of interest and open his father's bank account for a deal that is considerably higher than the USD 20/shr indicated offer, via FBN.


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  Alphabet (GOOGL) - Google has warned it will be "extremely difficult" for Australia to enforce a law prohibiting anyone younger than 16 from using social media, Reuters reports. Australia is set to become the first country to block the use of social media for those under 16 years of age in December, where platforms will be asked to use AI and behavioural data to infer one's age.


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  Meta (META) - Andrew Tulloch, co-founder of Mira Murati's Thinking Machines Lab, has left to join Meta, WSJ reports. Tulloch had been offered a package that could have been worth USD 1.5bln over at least six years, including top bonuses and extraordinary stock performance.

CONSUMER STAPLES

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  Estee Lauder (EL) - Upgraded at Goldman Sachs to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a USD 115 PT (prev. 76). The firm sees a "fundamental inflexion" for the company with the business potentially returning to sales growth as soon as the September quarter. Goldman is more optimistic on the shares, citing the attractiveness of the prestige beauty industry and Estee's stabilising business trends in its key China market.


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  Target (TGT) - Added to DA Davidson's "Stampede List", citing "Equity/Debt Recapitalisation" as a potential catalyst. The firm keeps its "Buy" rating, but lowered its PT to USD 108 (prev. 115). Under the leveraged buyout possibility, the acquirers would need to drive a 2.8% annual EBITDA dollar increase over the next five years to generate a required 25% five-year IRR, and while fundamentals remain challenged at Target, margins seem to be flattening out as guidance implies a better trend, DA Davidson argues.

UTILITIES

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  ReNew Energy Global (RNW) - Abu Dhabi Investment Authority raised its non-binding offer for ReNew Energy Global to USD 8.15/shr for all outstanding shares, marking a “best and final” proposal. The consortium stressed that no agreement or obligation will exist until definitive transaction agreements are executed.

ENERGY

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  Exxon (XOM) - CEO said their business activity in Europe is retreating.

TRADE (MORE)

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  China Trade - China’s imports of iron ore, copper and coal all reached their highest levels this year in September as industrial demand rose ahead of the autumn season. Soybean imports also hit a four-month high, while crude oil, copper ore and natural gas fell month-on-month but remained above year-ago levels. Meanwhile, Chinese exports rose 8.3% Y/Y in September (exp. 6.6%), the fastest growth in six months, signalling resilience in overseas shipments and strengthening Beijing’s position in the ongoing trade tensions with the US.


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  US-EU - The US and EU clashed over a UN-backed plan to cut global shipping carbon emissions ahead of this week’s International Maritime Organization vote. The EU urged adoption of the net-zero framework, while Washington threatened penalties for countries supporting the proposal, reflecting rising tensions over climate policy in international transport.


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  Netherlands-China - Shares in China's Wingtech Technology fell 10% after the Dutch government took control of its European unit Nexperia, citing national security concerns. While production can continue, the government can block or reverse decisions and requires Wingtech to suspend changes to Nexperia’s assets, business, or personnel for up to a year, Bloomberg reports.


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  US-South Africa - South African Trade Minister Parks Tau said a trade deal with the US is close, focusing on tariffs and reciprocal benefits, though he did not provide further details.

MACRO

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  US Government Shutdown - WSJ writes that the US government shutdown is beginning to have tangible effects: Smithsonian museums are closed, federal workers are missing pay and relying on savings, and businesses dependent on government services face layoffs and delays.


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  US September CPI Report - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report on October 24th at 13:30BST/08:30EDT, a rare exception during the government shutdown. The original publication date had been October 15th.


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  US Growth - Economists have raised their forecasts for US GDP growth to 1.8% for 2025 (vs a 1.3% forecast in June), driven by stronger business investment, according to the National Association for Business Economics survey; growth in 2026 is expected to be similar. As a comparison, the Fed's September forecasts had pencilled in growth of 1.6% this year, rising to a rate of 1.8% next year. Meanwhile, the NABE survey suggests that job gains are anticipated to remain weak.


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  US-China, China Stocks - Citigroup (C) and JPMorgan (JPM) recommend investors pivot toward defensive Chinese stocks amid rising US-China trade tensions. Citi favours domestic yield plays, while JPMorgan highlights banks with strong earnings and dividend records as safer bets amid potential tariff risks.


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  Taiwan - Taiwan's Economy Ministry said that no significant impact is expected on Taiwan's semiconductor industry from China's new curbs on rare earths, as they differ from the metals needed for the chip sector, Reuters reports.


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  KRW - South Korean authorities issued a rare verbal intervention, signalling they are closely monitoring the KRW currency for one-sided volatility. The Finance Ministry and Bank of Korea cited increased currency swings driven by both domestic and external factors.


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  French Politics - French PM Lecornu unveiled a new Cabinet two days after his reappointment, following his 14-hour resignation last week. The government mixes civil servants and politicians, including centrists Darmanin, de Montchalin, and Barrot. Conservatives Vautrin, Genevard, and Dati also join, while Lescure remains Economy Minister. Survival depends on Socialist support, as far-right and far-left parties oppose it.

GEOPOLITICS

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  US-Ukraine-Russia - President Trump said he may arm Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles for strikes deeper into Russia, but could first discuss the plan with President Putin in an effort to end the conflict. He raised the topic in a weekend call with Ukrainian President Zelensky.

13 Oct 2025 - 13:54- MetalsResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk