Daily US Equity Opening News - Trump nominates Warsh as Fed Chair; AAPL beats, sees strong iPhone demand

TODAY'S AGENDA:

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  US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.6%, NQ -0.8%, YM -0.6%, RUT -1.2%


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  DAY AHEAD: In energy, Baker Hughes will publish its weekly rig count statistics. On the speakers' front, we may see an update from Fed Governors Miran and Waller following their dovish dissent at this week's FOMC; elsewhere, Fed Governor Bowman (voter, dove) and Fed's Musalem (2028 voter, hawk) are due to give policy remarks. In other central banks, ECB's supervisory policymakers Buch is due.


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  BROKER MOVES: SPOT upgraded at Citi; DLTR upgraded at CFRA. For the full list, click here.
  


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  MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: AAPL, SNDK, DECK, SOFI, CL, TSLA, VZ, CVX, SCHW, NVDA, WDC. For the full list, click here.
  

NEWS:

MACRO

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  Fed Chair - US President Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair. "I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best. On top of everything else, he is “central casting,” and he will never let you down"; said Christopher Waller, Rick Rieder, and others were interviewed for the Fed position, adding that all would have been outstanding and have a great and unlimited future with “Trump.”


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  Government Shutdown - President Trump said Senate Republicans and Democrats agreed to advance five spending bills funding most government agencies until 30th September, while removing DHS funding from a USD 1.2tln package. DHS funding will be extended for two weeks as talks continue amid protests and scrutiny of immigration enforcement.


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  Trump vs Treasury/IRS - President Trump sued the US Treasury and IRS for at least USD 10bln over an alleged unauthorised disclosure of his tax returns during his first term. The lawsuit was filed in Miami by Trump, his sons Donald Jr. and Eric, and the Trump Organisation.

TECH

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  Apple (AAPL) - Apple shares ended the extended US trading session around flat, having initially rose after profit and revenue beat expectations, driven by exceptionally strong demand for the latest iPhone models that delivered the company’s best iPhone sales growth in over four years. Apple also announced that it had acquired Israeli audio AI startup Q.ai; terms were undisclosed, but reports suggest the deal valued Q.ai at about USD 1.6bln. Q1 EPS 2026 (USD): EPS 2.84 (exp. 2.67), Revenue 143.8bln (exp. 138.36bln); iPhone net sales 85.27bln (exp. 78.65bln), Wearables, Home and Accessories net sales 11.49bln (exp. 12.04bln), iPad net sales 8.60bln (exp. 8.13bln), Mac net sales 8.39bln (exp. 8.95bln). Greater China net sales 25.53bln (exp. 21.32bln), and services net sales 30.01bln (exp. 30.07bln). Installed base reached a new record of over 2.5bln active devices, with TV viewership +36% Y/Y in December; declared a quarterly dividend of USD 0.26/shr. The CEO said iPhone demand was “unprecedented” and customer enthusiasm “extraordinary,” with all-time revenue records across every geographic segment. For Q2, it sees revenue growth of +13-16% Y/Y (exp. 10%). Services revenue is likely to be similar to Q1 levels, with operating expenses between 18.4-18.7bln; execs noted supply constraints from advanced-node availability and limited supply-chain flexibility, with channel inventory exiting Q1 very lean. Apple plans to prioritize launches of its premium iPhone models in 2026, including its first foldable iPhone and two high-end non-folding models with upgraded cameras and larger displays, Nikkei Asia reports. The standard iPhone 18 is expected to be delayed until the first half of 2027 due to supply-chain constraints and a shift in marketing strategy. Click here for the sell-side reaction to AAPL earnings.
  


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  NVIDIA (NVDA) - China has conditionally approved AI startup DeepSeek to buy NVIDIA H200 chips, with regulatory conditions still being finalised, sources cited by Reuters said. Authorities also approved purchases by ByteDance, Alibaba (BABA) and Tencent (TCEHY). The decision follows recent US clearance for H200 exports, though Chinese regulators retain final control.


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  Microsoft (MSFT), Perplexity - AI startup Perplexity signed a USD 750mln, 3yr cloud deal with Microsoft to use Azure, expanding beyond longtime partner Amazon (AMZN). The agreement allows Perplexity to deploy AI models via Microsoft’s Foundry service, including models from OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI. Separately, The Verge reports that Microsoft is prioritising fixes to core Windows 11 issues after bugs, ads and bloatware damaged user trust; Windows and Devices president Davuluri said the company will focus on improving performance, reliability and overall user experience based on customer feedback.


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  SanDisk (SNDK) - SanDisk shares jumped over in extended trading after it delivered a large earnings beat and raised guidance, citing exceptionally strong demand for memory and storage products from AI customers. Q2 EPS 6.20 (exp. 3.54), Q2 revenue USD 3.03bln (exp. 2.69bln). Performance benefited from better product mix, accelerating enterprise SSD deployments and strengthening demand, with management citing improved market dynamics and the growing role of its products in AI infrastructure. The CEO said results highlight agility in capitalising on mix and demand and noted a structural reset to better align supply with sustained demand. For Q3, sees EPS between 12.00-14.00 (exp. 4.33), and revenue at 4.4-4.8bln (exp. 2.91bln). Western Digital (WDC) said it plans to monetise its remaining 7.5mln SanDisk shares before the one year anniversary of the separation; separately, Kioxia Corporation and SanDisk Corporation extended the Yokkaichi joint venture through 2034, with SanDisk paying Kioxia USD 1.165bln in manufacturing services fees in instalments from 2026-2029.


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  Western Digital (WDC) Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.13 (exp. 1.92), Revenue 3.02bln (exp. 2.93bln), driven by AI-related data centre demand and high-capacity HDD adoption. CFO said the business continues to strengthen with expectations for strong revenue growth and improved margins. Sees Q3 EPS at 2.15-2.45 (exp. 1.94), and sees Q3 sales at 3.1-3.3bln (exp. 2.93bln), citing continued strength in data centre demand and improving profitability. WDC said it plans to monetise its remaining 7.5mln SanDisk (SNDK) shares before the one year anniversary of the separation.


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  KLA (KLAC) - KLAC shares fell in extended trading. Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 8.85 (exp. 8.80), Revenue 3.3bln (exp. 3.25bln), supported by strong demand for process control across foundry/logic and memory amid AI-driven investment. The CEO said it is well-positioned to benefit from long-term growth in AI infrastructure, including advanced packaging and services. Sees Q3 adj. EPS of 9.08 +/- 0.78 (exp. 8.98), revenue of 3.35bln +/- 150mln (exp. 3.29bln), and Q3 adj. gross margin ~61.75%, citing continued relevance of process control at the leading edge and sustained momentum from AI-related demand.


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  Sony (SONY), Nintendo (NTDOY) - Nintendo and Sony face scrutiny over the impact of rising memory chip prices driven by AI demand on console profitability when they report earnings next week, Bloomberg says. Nintendo’s Switch 2 has shown strong sales, while Sony’s PlayStation 5 may have benefited from a cheaper Japan-only version.


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  DXC Technology (DXC) Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.96 (exp. 0.83), Revenue 3.19bln (exp. 3.18bln), reflecting disciplined execution and continued investment across Core and Fast Track offerings, with increasing use of AI solutions. The CEO said that DXC is being repositioned as a strategic partner through differentiated solutions and AI-driven value creation. Sees Q4 adj. EPS between 0.65-0.75 (exp. 0.80), revenue between 3.16-3.19bln (exp. 3.18bln); for FY26, sees adj. EPS of 2.85-3.35 (exp. 3.13), and revenue at ~12.69bln (exp. 12.69bln).

FINANCIALS

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  Private Credit - Investors are underestimating risks in the private credit boom, according to PIMCO President Stracke, who said buyers chasing high yields often ignore additional credit risk in private deals.


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  US IG Debt - US IG corporate bond issuance exceeded USD 200bln in January, breaking the previous record and marking only the sixth month ever above that level, Bloomberg reports. Borrowers rushed to issue debt as borrowing premiums eased, with January surpassing September’s volume to rank among the top five months on record.


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  Visa (V) - Visa reported earnings that beat expectations, driven by stronger holiday spending that lifted payment volumes. Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.17 (exp. 3.14), Revenue 10.9bln (exp. 10.69bln); Q1 payments volume +8% Y/Y, cross-border volume +12% Y/Y, total processed transactions USD 69.4bln. Management said spending trends remained resilient with continued strength in cross-border activity and broad-based volume growth. Sees Q2 EPS growth at the high end of low double digits, and net revenue growth in the low double digits, alongside mid-teens operating expense growth. For FY26, sees EPS growth in the low double digits, net revenue growth in the low double digits and operating expense growth also in the low double digits.


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  American Express (AXP) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 3.53 (exp. 3.54), Revenue 18.98bln (exp. 18.92bln), Provisions for credit losses 1.4bln (exp. 1.47bln); To raise quarterly dividend to 0.95/shr. Guidance: FY revenue growth 9-10% (exp. 8.98%); FY EPS 17.30-17.90 (exp. 17.41). Provided a long-term target of revenue growth of 10%+ and EPS growth of mid-teens. CFO said the holiday shopping season was very strong for card members


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  SoFi Technologies Inc (SOFI) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.13 (exp. 0.12), Revenue 1.01bln (exp. 977mln); sees Q1 adj. EPS at 0.12 (exp. 0.12) and Q1 revenue at 1.04bln (exp. 1.04bln); FY26 guidance: EPS 0.60 (exp. 0.58), Rev. 4.65bln (exp. 4.59bln).


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  Aon (AON) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 4.85 (exp. 4.76), Revenue 4.30bln (exp. 4.38bln); Guides initial FY26 adjusted EPS with strong growth.


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  Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Q4 (USD) EPS 2.38 (exp. 2.35), Revenue 3.59bln (exp. 3.60bln).


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  Hartford Insurance (HIG) Q4 2025 (USD): Core EPS 4.06 (exp. 3.22), Revenue 7.3bln (prev. 6.869bln last year).


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  Blackstone (BX) - Considering selling Interplex’s information and communications technology unit amid interest from private equity firms and industry buyers, Bloomberg reports. The firm is working with advisers, and a potential transaction could value the business at more than USD 1bln.


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  Wells Fargo (WFC) - Raised CEO Scharf’s pay by +28% to USD 40mln for 2025, the highest in decades. The package includes USD 2.5mln base salary and a USD 37.5mln bonus (vs USD 28.7mln previously).


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  Charles Schwab (SCHW) - Paul Woolway will retire as CEO of Charles Schwab Bank on 1st July; Tyler Woulfe will succeed him. Separately, Charles Schwab raises quarterly dividend +19% to 0.32/shr.


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  Robinhood (HOOD) - The US government is considering giving Robinhood a key role overseeing new “Trump accounts” for millions of children, Bloomberg reports. Robinhood has begun internal preparations if selected as trustee. Fidelity Investments and Vanguard have not been considered or solicited for the initial rollout.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

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  Amazon (AMZN) - Amazon is in talks to invest up to USD 50bln in OpenAI, led by CEO Andy Jassy, according to the WSJ. OpenAI is seeking up to USD 100bln in new capital, potentially valuing the ChatGPT maker at as much as USD 830bln, the Journal adds.


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  Tesla (TSLA) - SpaceX is considering a potential merger with Tesla, or alternatively with AI firm xAI, according to sources cited by Bloomberg, as Elon Musk weighs consolidating his businesses. Talks include a SpaceX-Tesla tie-up pushed by some investors, and a SpaceX–xAI combination ahead of an IPO, the report said. Separately, Electrek reports that NHTSA crash data and Tesla mileage disclosures show Tesla Robotaxis crash more frequently than human drivers; the fleet records about one crash every 55,000 miles, vs around one police-reported crash every 500,000 miles for human drivers in the US.


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  Ford (F) - Ford expects a pre-tax remeasurement loss of about USD 0.6bln in Q4, including USD 300mln from US pension plans and USD 300mln outside the US.


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  Autoliv (ALV) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.19 (exp. 2.88), Revenue 2.82bln (exp. 2.77bln); sees FY26 organic sales around flat.


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  Just Eat (JTKWY) - Grubhub will remove delivery and service fees on restaurant orders above USD 50 as it seeks to attract customers from DoorDash (DASH) and Uber (UBER). The change begins rolling out to some users on Thursday, ahead of a wider launch on 2nd February, extending benefits previously limited to subscribers.


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  Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 3.33 (exp. 2.76), Revenue 1.96bln (exp. 1.87bln), driven by strong global demand for UGG and HOKA, with balanced growth across DTC and wholesale, continued international momentum and healthy US growth, alongside high levels of full-price selling supporting strong gross margins. The CEO said results reflected “significant global demand” and effective marketplace management, adding the group is on track for “another incredible year” of profitable growth across both brands. Sees FY26 EPS between 6.80-6.85 (exp. 6.84; prev. saw 6.30-6.39), and FY26 revenue at 5.4-5.425bln (exp. 5.37bln; prev. saw 5.35bln).

ENERGY

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  ExxonMobil (XOM) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.71 (exp. 1.70), Revenue 82.3bln (exp. 80.67bln). The CEO said, "Our transformation is delivering a more resilient, lower-cost, technology-led business with structurally stronger earnings power, grounded in advantaged assets, disciplined capital allocation, and execution excellence. Production: Reported that highest annual Upstream production in more than 40yrs, and record refinery throughput. FY net production reached its highest level in more than 40 years at 4.7mln oil-equivalent barrels per day. Production from the Permian, at 1.6mln oil-equivalent barrels per day, and Guyana, which exceeded 700,000 gross barrels per day, achieved annual records. Advantaged assets in the Permian, Guyana, and LNG represented 59% of production in 2025, an increase of approximately 7ppts vs 2024. Q4 net production reached 5.0mln oil-equivalent barrels per day, with advantaged assets setting new quarterly production records, including 1.8mln oil-equivalent barrels per day in the Permian and Guyana approaching 875,000 gross barrels per day. Meanwhile, cash capital expenditures totaled 29.0bln in 2025, including 2.6bln of acquisitions; 28.4bln was for additions to property, plant, and equipment. Expects cash capital expenditures of 27-29bln in 2026.


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  Chevron Corporation (CVX) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 1.52 (exp. 1.43), Revenue 46.9bln (exp. 46.88bln); hiked quarterly dividend +4% to 1.78/shr; Increased 2025 worldwide and US production by 12% and 16% percent to record levels; Reserve replacement ratio of 158% in 2025. As developments progress in Venezuela, Chevron continues to engage with the US and Venezuelan governments to advance shared energy goals. Production: Worldwide and US net oil-equivalent production set annual records; for 2025, the Hess acquisition contributed 261 MBOED, while legacy Chevron operations added another 124 MBOED, driven by growth in the Permian Basin and project ramp-ups at TCO and in the Gulf of America. Year-end 2025 proved reserves were approximately 10.6bln bbls of net oil-equivalent, subject to final review; the largest additions were from the acquisition of Hess and extensions and discoveries in shale and tight assets in the Permian Basin, and project approvals in Australia and Guyana. CEO sees Venezuelan output up 50% in the next 18-24 months. Meanwhile, capex in 2025 was higher Y/Y due to spending on legacy Hess assets post-acquisition and increased investments in US data centre power solutions, more than offsetting lower spend in downstream. Later, the FT, citing the CFO, reported that Chevron will not increase capex this year to fast-track expansion in Venezuela; Chevron will not raise capital spending to accelerate Venezuela expansion, instead focusing on lifting output from existing operations; Production is about 250k BPD, with potential 50% growth pending US approvals; Capital guidance remains 18-19bln for 2026, despite US pressure to invest.


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  Marathon Petroleum (MPC) - The United Steelworkers union said it has unanimously rejected Marathon’s contract proposal in talks over a national agreement covering US refinery and chemical plant workers. The parties face a 12:01 a.m. Sunday deadline to reach a new deal is before the current four-year contract expires.


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  Venezuela - The Trump administration eased sanctions by lifting a key barrier for US firms to trade Venezuelan oil after the government in Caracas passed legislation to improve conditions for foreign investors, WaPo reports.


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  China LNG - China’s LNG imports are expected to rise in January for a third consecutive month, reaching about 6.94mln tons, according to Kpler. The volume would be around +15% Y/Y, suggesting stronger purchases via long-term contracts.

MATERIALS

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  LME Trading Glitch - The LME delayed the start of trading by about one hour on Friday because of a technical problem, adding to confusion after a week of extreme volatility and sharp price gains. Electronic trading eventually began at 10:00am Hong Kong time.


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  Rio Tinto (RIO) - Rio Tinto and Aluminium Corporation of China agreed to acquire Votorantim’s 68.596% stake in Companhia Brasileira de Aluminio, via a joint venture owned 33% and 67%. The all-cash offer of BRL 10.50/shr values the stake at about USD 902.6mln, a 21.2% premium.


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  Eastman Chemical (EMN) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.75 (exp. 0.72), Revenue 1.97bln (exp. 2.02bln). Sees Q1 adj. EPS of 1.00-1.20 (exp. 1.28), citing seasonal volume/mix improvement, reduced customer caution, lower shutdown costs, improved utilisation and ongoing cost actions, partly offset by modestly lower prices in Fibers and Chemical Intermediates and higher energy costs; excludes potential winter storm impacts; wide range is due to macro uncertainty, but it expects meaningful earnings improvement vs 2025 levels.


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  Air Products and Chemicals (APD) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.16 (exp. 3.04), Revenue 3.10bln (exp. 3.05bln), sees FY26 adj. EPS at 12.85-13.15 (exp. 12.95).


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  Metalor Technologies - Paused accepting new scrap metal shipments and advance payments because of an inventory backlog caused by severe US weather and a surge in scrap driven by record gold prices, Bloomberg reports. The Swiss refiner outlined the measures in a 27th January update to clients.

COMMUNICATIONS

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  Verizon Communications (VZ) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.09 (exp. 1.05), Revenue 36.4bln (exp. 36.09bln); Q4 postpaid phone net additions 616,000 vs (exp. 417,250). Outlook: FY adj. EPS 4.90-4.95 (exp. 4.75); Capex 16-16.5bln; 2026 Mobility & Broadband service REV growth of 2%-3%, equating to about USD 93bln; 2026 retail postpaid phone net additions 0.75-1.0mln; Wireless service REV growth will be about flat in 2026.


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  LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS -0.26 (prev. 0.77 last year), Revenue 7.09bln (exp. 6.82bln).


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  Spotify (SPOT) - Upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at Citi arguing that the stock's valuation is now attractive and consensus estimates are beatable; Citi sees catalysts for Spotify shares due to price increases and accelerating buybacks.


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  Meta Platforms (META) - US law enforcement investigated allegations by former Meta contractors that staff could access WhatsApp messages despite encryption claims, Bloomberg writes. Special agents with the US Department of Commerce examined the claims. Similar allegations featured in a 2024 whistleblower complaint to the US SEC.

HEALTHCARE

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  Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 11.44 (exp. 10.56), Revenue 3.88bln (exp. 3.78bln); sees 2026 capex at 1.3bln.


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  Hologic (HOLX) Q1 2026 (USD): EPS 1.04 (exp. 1.10), Revenue 1.05bln (exp. 1.07bln).


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  Stryker (SYK) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 4.47 (exp. 4.40), Revenue 7.2bln (exp. 7.12bln), supported by healthy procedural volumes and strong capital equipment demand. The CEO said the company had an “outstanding finish to 2025” and enters 2026 with “significant momentum” at the high end of MedTech growth. Sees FY26 adj. EPS at 14.90-15.10 (exp. 14.94), and organic net sales growth of +8.0-9.5%, including a modestly favourable pricing impact, with FX expected to be slightly positive for sales.


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  Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - A US judge dismissed a lawsuit accusing J&J of fraud over its use of a subsidiary’s bankruptcy to resolve talc-related cancer claims, ruling that plaintiffs failed to show they were harmed by the delays caused by the bankruptcy process.


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  ResMed (RMD) Q2 2026 (USD): EPS 2.81 (exp. 2.72), Revenue 1.42bln (exp. 1.4bln).

CONSUMER STAPLES

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  Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL) FY25 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.69 (exp. 3.65), Sales 20.4bln (exp. 20.3bln). Q4 EPS 0.95 (exp. 0.91), Revenue 5.23bln (exp. 5.12bln). CEO "As we begin 2026, while we expect the difficult operating environment and slower category growth to continue in the short term, we are operating from a position of strength and are confident that the changes we are making will enable us to deliver consistent, compounded earnings per share growth and drive shareholder value in the long term". Sees FY26 net sales up 2-6%.


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  Mondelez (MDLZ) - Appointed Luca Zaramella as COO and CFO effective 1st February. The company is searching for a permanent CFO. Zaramella has served as CFO since 2018.

INDUSTRIALS

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  CK Hutchison (CKHUY) - Panama’s Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional a port contract held by CK Hutchison, citing audit irregularities, NYT reports. The firm has operated Balboa and Cristobal ports since 1997. The decision, issued on the 30th of January, complicates a proposed sale to a BlackRock (BLK)-led consortium amid US-China tensions.


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  RTX (RTX) - Received a USD 1.03bln US Army contract modification for year two production of the Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor, bringing total contract value to USD 1.03bln.

REAL ESTATE

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  Weyerhaeuser (WY) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.06 (exp. -0.13), Revenue 1.72bln (exp. 1.56bln).

TRADE

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  Rare Earths - The US plans to seek agreement with allies on a rare earth pricing mechanism during meetings with foreign ministers in Washington next week. Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Helberg said the aim is to support price stability for mineral refiners and extractors.


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  US-China - The US Treasury said China’s yuan is “substantially undervalued” and urged Beijing to allow the exchange rate to strengthen in a timely and orderly way. In its semi-annual FX report, the department cited China’s large and growing external surpluses and said adjustments should align with macroeconomic fundamentals.


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  UK-China/Canada-China - President Trump warned the UK and Canada against pursuing new business deals with China after their leaders visited Beijing this month. He said such moves were dangerous, criticised Canada’s economic position, and argued China should not be seen as a solution. Elsewhere, Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on Canadian aircraft sold in the US and decertify new planes made in Canada unless Ottawa approved certain Gulfstream jets; he accused Canada of refusing to certify several Gulfstream models, targeting Bombardier aircraft in response.


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  US-South Korea - South Korea’s industry minister met the US Commerce Secretary in Washington, but made no progress easing renewed trade tensions after President Trump threatened higher tariffs. The sides agreed to resume talks on Friday, with Seoul reaffirming commitments on agreed investment pledges and related legislation to support Korean investment in the US.


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  US-Cuba - President Trump authorised his administration to impose tariffs on goods from countries that supply oil to Cuba, escalating pressure on the communist-run government. The move tightens US sanctions policy as Trump seeks political change in Havana.

30 Jan 2026 - 13:48- Geopolitical- Source: Newsquawk