Daily US Equity Opening News - Trump announced 50% copper tariffs; TSMC Q2 revenue likely topped expectations; DAL earnings beat

TODAY'S AGENDA:

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  US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.1%, NQ -0.1%, YM -0.2%, RTY -0.2%


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  DAY AHEAD: On the speakers' slate, Fed's Waller (Voter, Dove) to speak on the balance sheet; Fed's Musalem (2025 voter) will speak on the economy and monpol; Fed's Daly (2027 voter) will give remarks on the outlook. Elsewhere, BoE's Breeden will give remarks on financial stability. Elsewhere in central banks, the Banxico's June meeting minutes will be published in the afternoon. Notable US corporates reporting today include: Levi's (LEVI). In supply, the US will sell USD 22bln 30yr bonds.


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  BROKER MOVES: AMD upgraded at HSBC; MCD upgraded at Goldman, CAKE downgraded . For the full list, click here.
  


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  MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: TSM, MBLY, TSLA, KLG, Copper Names, DAL, CAG, AMD, MCD. For the full list, click here.
  


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  DAILY US CONFERENCE CALENDAR: WMT. For the full list, click here.
  

TRADE

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  Copper Tariffs - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on US copper imports, effective August 1st, citing national security concerns. Trump emphasised copper’s critical role in defence and technology sectors, blaming previous administrations for weakening the US copper industry and promising to restore its dominance. Bloomberg reports that copper traders are rushing to deliver shipments into Hawaii and Puerto Rico to beat Trump’s planned 50% tariffs starting on August 1st, with futures in NY surging to a 25% premium over global prices, creating a profitable arb trade that risks losses if shipments miss the deadline.


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  US-EU - The EU and US are advancing trade talks ahead of the August 1st tariff deadline, with proposals including car import quotas, tariff cuts, and export credits, Reuters reports citing sources. A 25% US tariff on EU cars since April is central to discussions.


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  US-Brazil - US President Donald Trump threatened a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, accusing Brazil of "attacks" on US tech firms and a "witch hunt" against former president Bolsonaro, who faces trial for a coup attempt. Brazil’s president Lula warned of reciprocal tariffs and rejected interference in Brazil’s judiciary.


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  US-Mexico - The US has paused the restart of livestock imports from Mexico due to concerns over a parasitic fly. Agriculture Secretary Rollins ordered an immediate closure of trade via southern ports, just days after trade had resumed.


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  US-Japan - Japan’s automakers cut export prices to the US by 19.4% Y/Y last month, the largest decline since 2016, to offset the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on vehicles and maintain competitiveness, according to the BoJ's corporate goods price report.

EQUITY NEWS

TECH

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  TSMC (TSM) - TSMC's Q2 revenue is likely to be TWD 933.8bln (exp. TWD 927.83bln), according to Reuters' calculations; TSMC itself reported YTD sales were +40% Y/Y, and June sales likely grew by +26.9% Y/Y.


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  Apple (AAPL) - Analysts at LightShed Partners said Apple should consider replacing CEO Tim Cook due to the company’s challenges with AI. They argued that the iPhone maker now needs a product-focused CEO instead of one with a logistics background like Cook.


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  Groq - Groq, a challenger in chips for large language models, is in talks to raise USD 300-500mln at a USD 6bln valuation, according to The Information citing sources.


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  Mobileye (MBLY) - Priced a 50mln share spot secondary at USD 16.50/shr, up from an initial 45mln shares, and below the last close of USD 17.32.


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  PTC (PTC), Autodesk (ADSK) - Autodesk is exploring a potential cash-and-stock acquisition of PTC, which has a market value of around USD 25bln, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. Other industry players are also said to be showing interest in the software firm.


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  Accenture (ACN), Microsoft (MSFT) - Companies expand their collaboration on Gen-AI powered cyber solutions.


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  AMD (AMD) - Upgraded at HSBC to 'Buy' from 'Hold' with a USD 200 PT.


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  Workday (WDAY) - Downgraded to 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' at Piper Sandler with a USD 235 PT (prev. 255). Piper believes per-employee pricing risk coupled with "eroding appetite" to invest materially in applications could further pressure growth at Workday.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

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  Tesla (TSLA) - Plans to expand its robotaxi service to the San Francisco Bay Area within two months, pending regulatory approval, following a limited test in Austin, Reuters reports. Separately, the WSJ reports that Tesla shareholders are pressuring the board to schedule its annual meeting by July 13th to remain compliant with Texas law requiring a meeting every 13 months; failure to do so would place the company out of compliance.


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  Amazon (AMZN) - Adobe reported USD 7.9bln in US online sales during the first 24 hours of Prime Day, up 9.9% Y/Y, marking 2025’s biggest e-commerce day so far. However, Brand Adviser cited a 41% drop in Amazon's day-one sales.


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  China Vehicle Sales - China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported China's June vehicle sales rose 13.8% Y/Y (vs +11.2% in May); Jan-June sales climbed 11.4% Y/Y(vs +6.1% Y/Y in May). June new energy vehicle sales rose 26.7% Y/Y, with Jan-June NEV sales up 40.3% Y/Y.


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  European Autos - EU and US are advancing trade talks ahead of the August 1st tariff deadline, with proposals including car import quotas, tariff cuts, and export credits, Reuters reports. A 25% US tariff on EU cars since April is central to discussions, with mechanisms considered to benefit BMW (BMWYY), Mercedes (MBG), and potentially Volkswagen (VWAGY).


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  Japan Autos - Japan’s automakers cut export prices to the US by 19.4% Y/Y last month, the largest decline since 2016, to offset the impact of President Trump’s tariffs on vehicles and maintain competitiveness, according to the BoJ's corporate goods price report.


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  Ford (F) - Said the USD 3bln plant is building in Marshall, Michigan to produce EV batteries will still qualify for federal tax credits due to last-minute changes in the OBBB, NYT reports. Meanwhile, Ford is recalling 850,318 US vehicles due to a risk of engine stalling, which increases the chance of a crash, according to the NHTSA.


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  Nissan (NSANY) - Plans to sell USD 4bln foreign currency bonds with a record high coupon of 8.125% for 10yr notes, exceeding its previous 7.5% coupon from 1986. The move adds pressure on the struggling automaker as it seeks a business turnaround. Final pricing is expected today.


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  Ulta Beauty (ULTA) - To buy Space NK from its owner Manzanita Capital. Space NK will operate as a standalone subsidiary of Ulta Beauty and will continue to be led by its existing management team, including Space NK chief executive officer Andy Lightfoot.


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  Cheescake Factory (CAKE) - Downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy'. The firm cites valuation and the stock's recent rally for the downgrade with near-term catalysts possibly less pronounced, while upside to consensus views appears more limited from here.


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  BMW (BMWYY) - Q2 Deliveries: 621.27k, +0.4% Y/Y; Europe +10.1%, China -13.7%, US +1.4%.


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  Adidas (ADDYY), Puma (PUMSY) - Adidas and Puma are refocusing on running shoes to regain market share lost to smaller rivals like Hoka and On Holding, Bloomberg reports. The revival is crucial to offset share price declines and prepare for potential US tariffs impacting key supply chains.


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  Fast Retailing (FRCOY) - 9-month net profit rose 8.4% Y/Y to JPY 339.10bln, operating profit rose 12.2% to JPY 450.95bln, pretax profit rose 8.9% to JPY 520.51bln. For FY24/25, it sees a net profit of JPY 410bln, an operating profit of JPY 545bln, and a pretax profit of JPY 635bln.

CONSUMER STAPLES

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  McDonald's (MCD) - Upgraded at Goldman Sachs to 'Buy' from 'Neutral'. Goldman sees McDonald's using its "marketing power" to elevate consumer awareness around its new menu offerings to generate traffic and check growth. Goldman has begun to see some early signs that McDonald's new product offerings and value platform are working, saying the brand has maintained traffic growth above peer levels.


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  WK Kellogg (KLG) - Ferrero is close to acquiring WK Kellogg in a deal valued at around USD 3bln, according to sources cited by the WSJ. An agreement could be finalised this week, pending final negotiations.


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  Costco (COST) - Costco's June comparable sales (ex-gasoline/FX) showed a rise of 6.2% for the 5-week period (prev. 6.0%); US comps were +5.5% (prev. 5.5%); for the 44-week period, total sales were up 7.7% (prev. 7.9%).


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  Dollar Tree (DLTR) - Replenished its share repurchase authorisation to USD 2.5bln, maintaining the limit previously approved by the board in September 2021.


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  Conagra Brands (CAG) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.56 (exp. 0.58), Revenue 2.8bln (exp. 2.83bln). Outlook: FY26 Adj. EPS 1.70-1.85 (exp. 2.22), 2026 organic net sales growth -1% to +1% vs fiscal 2025. 2026 adj. operating margin ~11.0% - ~11.5%. Expects an impact on fiscal 2026 from previously announced tariffs.


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  Helen of Troy (HELE) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.41 (exp. 0.91), Revenue 372mln (exp. 397mln). Outlook: Q2 adj. EPS 0.45-0.60 (exp. 1.21), Q2 revenue 408-423mln (exp. 475mln).


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  Seven and i Holdings (SVNDY) - Net profit rose 129.2% Y/Y to JPY 49.01bln, operating profit rose 9.7% to JPY 65.08bln, while recurring profit fell 3.1% to JPY 53.28bln. For FY25/26, it sees a net profit of JPY 255bln, an operating profit of JPY 424bln yen, and a recurring profit of JPY 386bln.


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  Barry Callebaut (BRRLY) - Cut its FY volume guidance to a 7% decline (prev. saw mid-single-digit drop) and lowered EBIT growth forecast to mid-high single digits (prev. saw double-digits), citing extreme cocoa market conditions. Nine-month sales volumes met forecasts at 1.6mln tonnes, down 9.5% in Q3, while revenue rose 50% as costs were passed on.

INDUSTRIALS

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  Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 2.10 (exp. 2.05), Revenue 16.6bln (exp. 15.46bln), adj. PBT 1.8bln (exp. 1.74bln). Restored FY guidance of adj. EPS 5.25-6.25 (exp. 5.36). Continued strength in diverse revenue streams is driving double-digit margins. Q3 guidance Increasing quarterly dividend by 25% beginning in Q3; EPS 1.25-1.75 (exp. 1.30); revenue flat/+4% Y/Y; "...with unit revenue trends expected to improve through the second half of the year as we continue to adjust capacity and the industry further rationalizes supply". Expect an improving industry backdrop in H2, as carriers rationalise capacity after the summer peak period.


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  China Construction - China’s construction equipment sales surged in H1 2025, with domestic excavator sales rising nearly 23% Y/Y, signalling stronger demand in the sector. The growth suggests a recovery in construction activity and implies increased steel demand, according to data from the China Construction Machinery Association. Separately, a gauge of Chinese property shares has posted the largest gain in nine months amid speculation a high-level meeting will be held next week to help revive the property sector, according to Bloomberg.


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  Plug Power (PLUG) - Filed for offering of up to 31.5mln shares of common stock by selling stockholders.


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  Agco (AGCO) - Authorised a new USD 1bln share repurchase programme following its pending resolution with Tractors and Farm Equipment Limited.


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  AZZ (AZZ) Q1 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.78 (exp. 1.60), Revenue 422.0mln (exp. 435.91mln). Adj. EBITDA 106.4mln, 25.2% of sales. It reduced debt by 285.4mln, and now has a net leverage ratio of 1.7x. Outlook: Raised FY26 EPS outlook to between 5.75–6.25 (exp. 5.88), and sees revenue stable at 1.63–1.73bln (exp. 1.68bln).


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  Bloom Energy (BE) - 10mln share spot secondary; price ranges from USD 27.75-28.71.

HEALTHCARE

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  Preventive Services Task Force - The HHS postponed the Preventive Services Task Force meeting originally set for July 10th, raising concerns among public health experts. The task force’s recommendations influence which services insurers must cover for free under the Affordable Care Act.


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  UnitedHealth (UNH) - Appointed Mike Cotton as head of its Medicaid insurance segment, filling a recent vacancy. Bobby Hunter, previously head of Medicare insurance, now oversees both Medicaid and Medicare as CEO of government programmes.


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  Pfizer (PFE) - Said Embark met key secondary endpoint; no safety signals were observed in analysis and safety results were consistent with the demonstrated safety profile of xtandi.


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  Moderna (MRNA) - Received full US FDA approval for COVID vaccine, spikevax, in children aged 6months through 11years at increased risk for COVID.


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  Merck (MRK) - Said FDA sets target action date of April 28th, 2026 for India.


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  Bayer (BAYRY) - Filed for EU approval of gadoquatrane with the European Medicines Agency; if approved, it would become the lowest dose macrocyclic GBCA available in the EU. Further regulatory submissions are planned globally in the coming months.


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  Ultragenyx (RARE) - Ultragenyx and Mereo BioPharma received a DMC recommendation to continue the Phase 3 Orbit study of UX143 in osteogenesis imperfecta, with final analysis expected at year-end. The safety profile was deemed acceptable, and patient dosing will continue per protocol across both Orbit and Cosmic studies. That said, shares have slumped as the study did not meet the criteria for early stoppage with final results delayed until year-end.


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  Solena Therapeutics (SLNO) - Announced proposed USD 200mln public offering. Soleno intends to grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional USD 30mln of shares of common stock.


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  Personalis (PSNL), Tempus AI (TEM) - Personalis expanded its collaboration with Tempus AI to include colorectal cancer in their NeXT Personal MRD test partnership, alongside breast, lung, and immunotherapy monitoring. The deal now runs to November 2029, with Tempus' exclusivity extended through 2028.

FINANCIALS

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  Blackstone (BX), Legal & General (LGGNY) - Blackstone and Legal & General have formed a private credit partnership targeting growth to USD 20bln over five years, Bloomberg reports. Blackstone will originate investment-grade private credit deals for L&G’s annuities business, and develop public-private hybrid credit solutions with L&G’s asset management unit.


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  Goldman Sachs (GS) - Acquired the four-star Mercure Ambassador hotel and mixed-use retail property in Seoul’s Hongdae area for USD 190mln, as it aims to strengthen its real estate alternatives business in South Korea.


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  Barclays (BCS), HSBC (HSBC) - Barclays hired Joseph Lee from HSBC as head of high-touch equity sales trading for Asia-Pacific, expanding its staff after a near-decade exit from the business, Bloomberg reports.


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  Crypto - A US Senate panel debated crypto regulation, with Republicans pushing for a light-touch approach and Democrats warning of loopholes and conflicts. The Senate Banking Committee aims to finalise legislation by September 30th, while the House will consider its own crypto-market structure measure next week.

MATERIALS:

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  BHP (BHP), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Glencore (GLNCY), Rio Tinto (RIO), Southern Copper (SCCO) - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on US copper imports, effective August 1st, citing national security concerns. Trump emphasised copper’s critical role in defence and technology sectors, blaming previous administrations for weakening the US copper industry and promising to restore its dominance.


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  Canada Critical Minerals - Canada’s Business Council urged the government to lead in producing and processing strategic minerals for military use, proposing a NATO-backed critical mineral reserve to secure stable supplies amid export restrictions and limited inventories.


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  Indonesia Aluminium - Chinese tycoons including Tsingshan Holding, China Hongqiao, and Shandong Nanshan are investing billions to expand Indonesia’s aluminium industry, aiming to offset production limits in China, Bloomberg reports. Goldman Sachs expects Indonesian aluminium output could increase five-fold by 2030, potentially reshaping the global aluminium market.

COMMUNICATIONS

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  Meta Platforms (META) - Received a positive mention in Bloomberg, where an opinion piece stated that Meta is gaining momentum by attracting leading talent with large pay and pledges to make AI free and impactful. Separately, Meta offered former Apple (AAPL) AI models team leader Ruoming Pang a compensation package exceeding USD 200mln over several years; Apple did not match the offer, which surpasses pay for all Apple leaders except CEO Tim Cook.


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  ITV (ITV LN), Disney (DIS) - Companies struck a streaming deal. Companies hope content-sharing agreements will help them attract new subscribers in a fiercely competitive market.


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  Fuji Media (FJTNY) - Shares fell 4.2% in APAC trade after the company announced it may issue free stock acquisition rights if an investor acquires 20% or more of voting shares to block activist investor Yoshiaki Murakami’s control.


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  WPP (WPP) - Appointed Cindy Rose as CEO, succeeding Mark Read, who will step down and support the transition until year-end; follows the advertising group's shares sliding by 15% on Tuesday after it cut profit guidance.

ENERGY

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  OPEC Conference - OPEC has excluded Bloomberg News, the New York Times, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, and Reuters from its biennial oil seminar in Vienna, without explanation. Other news organisations received access, extending a ban first imposed two years ago.


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  Chevron (CVX) - Cutting local and regional units to adopt a centralised model, aiming to save up to USD 3bln by 2026. A single offshore division will manage assets across the US Gulf, Nigeria, Angola, and the Eastern Mediterranean, while shale operations in Texas, Colorado, and Argentina will be consolidated.

GEOPOLITICS

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  Critical Minerals - Canada’s Business Council urges the government to lead in producing and processing strategic minerals for military use, proposing a NATO-backed critical mineral reserve to secure stable supplies amid export restrictions and limited inventories.


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  US-Russia - US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is set to meet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov during an ASEAN summit (October 26–27th) in Kuala Lumpur as the US prepares to send additional weapons to Ukraine amid ongoing conflict with Russia. Separately, Senate Majority Leader Thune expects a vote this month on new severe sanctions against Russia, reflecting growing US-Russia tensions; over 85 senators back the bill.


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  Israel-Hamas - US President Trump said negotiators are very close to a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, aiming for peace and hostage returns. A senior Israeli official was less optimistic, suggesting a temporary truce might be reached within one to two weeks.

MACRO

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  BoK Policy Announcement - The Bank of Korea kept its seven-day repurchase rate steady at 2.5%, as expected, maintaining an accommodative policy while monitoring risks from rising US tariffs and surging apartment prices in Seoul. The central bank remains cautious about financial imbalances before considering further easing.


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  Global Bonds - Aviva Investors remain neutral on government bonds but underweight long-dated US Treasurys and Bunds while overweight UK gilts, citing expected BoE rate cuts and looser US and German fiscal policy. It sees reduced US trade policy risk. In Japan, it expects the long end of the JGB curve to flatten amid likely issuance shifts.

RECAP

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  FOMC Minutes Recap: The minutes revealed a divided committee on the rate outlook, echoing the June Dot Plot. Most participants viewed some reduction in the Fed funds rate this year as appropriate, though only a couple — likely Waller and Bowman — would consider a cut as early as July, if data evolves as expected. Some judged that no cuts were needed, citing elevated inflation, persistent expectations, and resilient economic activity. On the neutral rate, several participants said the current rate may not be far from neutral. All agreed in June that holding rates steady was appropriate. On inflation, a few noted limited recent progress on core inflation, and some expressed concern that lower- and middle-income households are increasingly trading down due to price pressures. On the labour market, most believed higher tariffs or increased policy uncertainty would weigh on demand, with many expecting gradual softening; a few flagged early signs of weakness and said they would monitor for further deterioration. Participants agreed risks of both higher inflation and weaker employment had eased but remain elevated, and although uncertainty has declined slightly — partly due to fewer announced or expected tariffs — it is still high. Separately, Fed staff revised up their 2025 real GDP growth forecast and projected slightly lower inflation. Elsewhere, the NY Fed’s SOMA chief noted markets now expect balance sheet runoff to conclude by February 2026 (previously January 2026), with the Fed’s portfolio seen at USD 6.2tln (around 20% of GDP), reserves at USD 2.9trln, and ONRRP balances staying low. In wake of the minutes' release, WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos said the division within the Fed signals growing uncertainty over inflation and tariffs, suggesting a less unified approach; he notes that Powell has hinted at a lower bar for cuts by summer’s end, but disagreement over tariff-driven price risks could delay action or limit consensus on timing.

10 Jul 2025 - 13:59- EquitiesGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk