Daily US Equity Opening News - SSNLF sees Q2 profits halving; AAPL AI exec leaves for META; XOM sees Q2 hit

TODAY'S AGENDA

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  US INDEX FUTURES: ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%, YM -0.1%, RTY +0.4%


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  DAY AHEAD: The NY Fed will release its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations; last month, median one-year ahead inflation expectations eased to 3.2% (prev. 3.6%), the three-year expectations fell to 3.0% (prev. 3.2%), while the five-year pared back to 2.6% (prev. 2.7%). In later trade, Consumer Credit stats for May are expected to fall to USD 10.50bln from USD 17.87bln in April. Afterhours, the API will publish its weekly inventory stats, where headline crude stocks are expected to draw down by a rate of -2.6mln bbls, distillates are seen drawing by -0.2mln bbls, and gasoline stocks are seen drawing by -1.7mln bbls. On today's speakers' slate, ECB's Nagel, and ECB VP de Guindos. In supply, the US will sell USD 58bln of 3yr notes.


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  BROKER MOVES: BAC, JPM, GS downgraded at HSBC; CRWV downgraded at multiple brokers. Click here for the full list.
  


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  MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: Samsung Electronics, XOM, AAPL/META, AMZN, BAC/JPM/GS. For the full list, click here.
  

TRADE

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  US Tariffs - US President Trump informed Japan and South Korea of new 25% tariffs on all their exports to the US from August 1st, separate from sectoral tariffs, with penalties for transshipment. Trump warned that any increase in tariffs by Japan would be met with a matching US increase. He suggested potential tariff adjustments if Japan opens its markets and removes trade barriers. Additional tariffs announced include 25% on Malaysia, Tunisia and Kazakhstan; 30% on South Africa and Bosnia; 32% on Indonesia; 35% on Serbia and Bangladesh; 36% on Cambodia and Thailand; and 40% on Laos and Myanmar. The EU will not receive such a letter, per EU sources. Trump confirmed the August 1st deadline is firm but may consider other ideas and is close to a trade deal with India. The White House confirmed the deadline via executive order and said tariff rates would not stack.


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  US-EU - The EU aims to finalise a preliminary trade deal with the US this week to secure a 10% tariff rate extension beyond the August 1st deadline. The deal seeks exemptions for key products such as aircraft, parts, wine, and spirits, with some relief expected in the agreement in principle, Bloomberg reports. Elsewhere, the US reportedly offered the EU a 10% tariff deal with caveats, though talks remain fluid and subject to final approval by President Trump, according to Politico. EU Commission President von der Leyen said Europe must demonstrate strength in trade talks. The EU is exploring a car deal to offset US exports against imports, Reuters said.


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  US-Japan - Japanese PM Ishiba said no agreement has been reached as Japan defended key interests but will continue dialogue to seek a mutually beneficial deal. He noted past talks helped avert a 30-35% tariff hike, and the US has proposed continued negotiations until the August 1st deadline. Finance Minister Kato expects the US stance to shift and said Japan will support affected industries while coordinating with other agencies.

EQUITY NEWS

• BofA increased its 2025 year-end SPX target to 6300 from 5600.


• Goldman Sachs raised their 3-, 6-, and 12-month SPX return forecasts by +3% (6400), +6% (6600), and +11% (6900), respectively. Goldman maintains their EPS growth forecasts of +7% in 2025, and +7% in 2026, but see risks to estimates in both directions.

TECH

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  Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) - Samsung’s Q2 operating profit fell 56%, its first Y/Y decline since 2023, due to AI chip inventory write-downs linked to US export curbs to China. Samsung reported a preliminary Q2 operating profit of KRW 4.6tln (exp. 6.2tln) and a Q2 preliminary revenue of KRW 74.0tln (exp. 75.8tln). Its results highlight market share losses in memory amid AI disruption. It also announced a KRW 3.9tln share buyback alongside the report. Samsung said H1 earnings were hit by low utilisation in its non-memory chip business, US curbs on advanced AI chip sales to China, and inventory value adjustments; it expects H2 losses to narrow on improved non-memory chip demand. It added that customers are currently evaluating and receiving upgraded HBM chips.


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  Samsung Electronics (SSNLF), Alphabet (GOOG) - Epic Games has settled its antitrust lawsuit with Samsung, dropping claims that it colluded with Google (GOOG) to stifle alternative app stores on Samsung devices; the case against Google continues, but only on non-antitrust grounds.


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  SoftBank (SFTBY) - Ola Electric Mobility, backed by SoftBank, faces a crisis a year after its blockbuster IPO in India. Co-founder Bhavish Aggarwal invested in a UK R&D centre with top automotive talent to develop an electric car, aiming to emulate Elon Musk’s impact in India’s two-wheeler and electric vehicle market.


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  Figma (FIG) IPO - Figma’s expected US IPO is attracting strong interest due to its 46% Y/Y Q1 revenue growth, high customer retention, and strong gross margins, Bloomberg reports. Analysts anticipate it will be valued among the top enterprise software companies, marking a rare software listing in a slow IPO market.


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  CoreWeave (CRWV) - Downgraded at Stifel to 'Hold' from 'Buy' with a USD 115 PT (prev. 75); downgraded at Mizuho to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' with a USD 150 PT (prev. 70). Stifel views CRWV shares as fairly valued with the acquisition of Core Scientific (CORZ) providing "key near-term overhangs" for CoreaWeave to get through. Meanwhile, Mizuho recognises CoreWeave's "extremely high volatile" presents risks to both the upside and downside. Mizuho views the stock as fairly valued at current levels with risks around customer concentration.


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  Datadog (DDOG) - Downgraded at Guggenheim to 'Sell' from 'Neutral'. The firm cites the risk of potential significant optimization by OpenAI, which it believes to be Datadog's largest customer. The firm believes that OpenAI's observability software roadmap is shifting toward more cost-efficient, in-house technologies and argues that OpenAI may have already started to move off Datadog for log management onto its internally built solution, which the firm sees being followed by the planned deprecation of other Datadog functions.


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  Solar - US President Trump signed an Executive Order on Monday to eliminate subsidies for unreliable “green” energy sources like wind and solar in furtherance of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The Order directs the Secretary of the Treasury to terminate the clean electricity production and investment tax credits for wind and solar facilities and implement the enhanced Foreign Entity of Concern restrictions each as identified in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The Order also directs the Secretary of the Interior to revise regulations and policies to eliminate preferential treatment for wind and solar facilities compared to reliable, dispatchable energy sources. Following the decision, weakness is seen in the premarket in shares of Sunrun (RUN), First Solar (FSLR), and Enhpase Energy (ENPH).
  


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  Akamai Technologies (AKAM) - Announced new members elected to its board. Effective immediately, Janaki Akella and Bas Burger have joined.


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  GlobalFoundries (GFS) - To acquire MIPS to accelerate AI and compute capabilities and is expected to complete in H2 '25.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

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  Amazon (AMZN) - Amazon has extended Prime Day to a four-day event starting Tuesday, rebranding it as “Prime Week” to boost shopper engagement and Prime sign-ups, WSJ reports. US sales are projected to hit a record 12.9bln (up 53% Y/Y), according to Emarketer, despite waning interest in the original 24-hour format.


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  Wendy's (WEN) - Appointed Ken Cook as interim CEO.


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  Porsche AG (DRPRY) - Porsche H1 global sales fell 6% to 146,391 units, with China down 28% and Germany down 23%. Sales rose 10% in North America and overseas/emerging markets. Europe ex-Germany fell 8%. Porsche cited challenging conditions and tariffs and sees the environment remaining challenging in H2. Electrified vehicles made up 36% of deliveries, up 14.5% Y/Y.


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  Nissan Motor (NSANY) - Nissan’s 5yr credit default swaps hit a 16yr high, near 388bps (vs 375bps on the prior day), amid plans for a USD 4bln foreign currency bond sale, raising concerns over higher interest expenses. Its CDS has now risen to the highest level since 2009.


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  Starbucks (SBUX) - Exploring removing canola oil from its US food menu, including reformulating its egg white and roasted red pepper bites. The company plans to add a new egg bite made with avocado oil as part of this change.


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  LVMH (LVMUY) - Selling its only US hotel, the 90-room El Encanto in California, to a partnership of brothers Justin and Tyler Mateen and Culver Capital for USD 82.2mln.

FINANCIALS

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  JPM, GS, BAC - HSBC downgraded shares of JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America; JPM was downgraded to 'Reduce' from 'Hold', GS was downgraded to 'Reduce from 'Hold' and BAC was downgraded to 'Hold' from Buy'. The HSBC analyst is more cautious on universal banks and brokers following the recent rally in the shares. HSBC argues for a more constructive stance on super-regionals. HSBC adds, that while operating fundamentals in the banks and broker group appear healthy, share valuations are "increasingly stretched". On GS, HSBC thinks that good news is "more than priced in" and that the absence of a material increase in Investment Bank activity over a sustained period and/or a cool down in market performance "could lead to disappointment and a correction". On JPM, HSBC sees an unattractive risk-to-reward profile at current share levels and regarding BAC, HSBC sees limited upside in the shares.


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  Australia Pension Funds - Australia’s top pension funds, managing AUD 4.1tln, are shifting focus from US equities due to stretched valuations and increased volatility from Trump’s policies, Bloomberg reports. AustralianSuper ended its overweight in global equities, while Colonial First State is moving towards emerging markets to diversify away from expensive US stocks.


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  CME Group (CME) - A trial has begun in a class-action lawsuit by former Chicago floor traders who allege CME misled them and stripped away membership privileges during the shift to electronic trading. The case centres on claims of harm from CME’s transition, which marginalised traditional open-outcry participants.


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  XP (XP) - Filed a US lawsuit on Monday accusing the short seller Grizzly Research of defamation over a March 12 report accusing XP of running a "Madoff-like Ponzi scheme", Reuters reports. XP said it suffered more than USD 100mln in harm to its business and reputation from the report, with many longtime clients, investors and business partners withdrawing their funds.


• EU to rebuke Italy for conditions on UniCredit (UNCRY) and Banco BPM (BNNCY) deal, Bloomberg reports.

ENERGY

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  Clean Energy - President Trump ordered stricter enforcement of clean energy tax rules, directing the Treasury to tighten definitions of project start dates and limit tax credit claims to projects with substantial construction underway, following cuts to solar and wind incentives in his USD 3.4tln budget bill.


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  China LNG - China’s summer power demand rises amid the heat, but spot LNG imports remain low, Bloomberg notes. Cheap coal, abundant fuel inventories, and growing renewable energy capacity have reduced reliance on costly LNG, limiting the risk of blackouts despite increased electricity use along the eastern seaboard, the report adds.


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  Exxon (XOM) - Expects Q2 earnings to be negatively impacted by USD 0.8-1.2bln from lower liquids prices and USD 0.3-0.7bln from lower gas prices vs Q1. The estimates reflect market dynamics and are not a comprehensive forecast of Q2 results, it said. Separately, Exxon Mobil made a second gas discovery in Cyprus’s offshore Block 10, boosting hopes for larger reserves as the country seeks to export gas to Egypt.


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  BP (BP), Shell (SHEL) - Both companies made agreements with Libya's National Oil Corp to conduct studies for hydrocarbon exploration and development at three Libyan oilfields, NOC said on Monday. BP will also study broader "unconventional" oil and gas potential within the country, which refers to extracting hydrocarbons trapped in porous rock formations, requiring specialised extraction technologies such as fracking.


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  Venture Global (VG) - Exported more LNG cargoes from its Plaquemines export facility in Louisiana and earned more than double in fees compared with its other US plant, a company filing showed on Monday. During the same period, it exported 38 LNG cargoes from its Calcasieu Pass facility at an average liquefaction fee of USD 2.66 per mmBtu.


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  Citgo, Gold Reserve (GDRZF) - Holders of defaulted Venezuelan bonds are seeking a preliminary injunction to block a USD 7.4bln bid by Gold Reserve’s consortium to buy PDV Holding, Citgo’s parent company, arguing the sale would strip their rights to payment. The request is planned to be made in Manhattan federal court.

INDUSTRIALS

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  Honeywell (HON) - To evaluate strategic alternatives for Productivity Solutions and Services and Warehouse and Work Flow Solutions businesses; HON to become a pure-play automation business post-separation. Context: "Since June 2023, Honeywell has announced a number of strategic actions to drive organic growth and simplify its portfolio, including $14 billion of accretive acquisitions: Compressor Controls Corporation, SCADAfence, the Access Solutions business from Carrier Global, Civitanavi Systems, CAES Systems, the LNG business from Air Products, Sundyne, Johnson Matthey's Catalyst Technologies Business and Li-ion Tamer. Honeywell also completed the sale of its Personal Protective Equipment business to Protective Industrial Products in May 2025." Note, The separations follow a USD 5bln stake in February 2025 from activist investor Elliot Investment Management.


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  Boeing (BA) - The FAA plans to mandate inspections of around 2,200 Boeing 737s and 757s, citing risks that improper maintenance could compromise main landing gear integrity, expanding on a February directive concerning 767s, according to FlightGlobal. Separately, Ryanair (RYAAY) CEO, asked about diversifying away from Boeing, said it is not possible due to full order books, adding that "nobody has any choice".


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  Raytheon (RTX) - Raytheon's Barracuda vehicle is on track to achieve initial operational capability and low-rate initial production by 2030.


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  Daimler Truck (DTRUY) - Will repurchase EUR 2bln of its shares starting in H2 2025, with the buyback due to run over two years, continuing shareholder returns despite costs from transitioning to low-emission vehicles. The announcement came ahead of its capital markets day on Tuesday, where new medium-term targets are expected. Additionally, the company upgraded its financial targets for 2030: adj. ROS of more than 12% for the industrial business (9-13% through cycle range); FCF IB targeted to increase by 50% until 2030 vs. 2024; Dividend policy of 40-60% payout ratio of net profit confirmed.


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  Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY) - CEO O'Leary said they are seeing strong bookings and rising prices for its summer season, with no signs that customers are delaying holidays due to a recent heatwave. O'Leary said the consensus is that Q1 after-tax profit will double Y/Y; sees no reason to object to that.

HEALTHCARE

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  EU Medical Devices - A European business group in China criticised Beijing’s new restrictions on EU medical device makers, calling the measures retaliatory and escalating trade tensions. Jens Eskelund, president of the European Chamber, said the move undermines hopes for resolving longstanding issues and deepening EU-China economic ties.


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  Biogen (BIIB) - Expects a Q2 EPS impact of 0.26 due to a USD 46mln pre-tax charge related to acquired in-process R&D, upfront and milestone expenses, according to a filing. The charge will affect both GAAP and non-GAAP results and stems from collaboration and licensing costs, which Biogen does not forecast due to inherent uncertainty.


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  Centene (CNC) - S&P Global Ratings is considering downgrading Centene to junk status after the insurer suspended its 2025 profit outlook. Centene withdrew its earnings forecast due to shifting insurance market trends, especially regarding Affordable Care Act plans, reducing S&P’s confidence in the company’s ability to build capital quickly.


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  Novartis (NVS) - Novartis’ Coartem Baby, the first malaria medicine approved for newborns and young infants by Swissmedic and is expected to gain rapid approval in eight African countries. Novartis will introduce the infant-friendly treatment largely on a not-for-profit basis to improve access in malaria-endemic areas.


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  Nanobiotix (NBTX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Nanobiotix announced the EU reclassification of JNJ-1900 from device to drug, aligning with US and other markets, following updated mechanism insights. It also filed a new composition of matter patent to strengthen IP. JNJ-1900, licensed to J&J, is in a global development programme including a Phase 3 trial.


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  Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Johnson & Johnson'S supplemental new drug application was submitted to US FDA for caplyta with data demonstrating significant schizophrenia relapse prevention compared to placebo.

COMMUNICATIONS

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  Meta Platforms (META), Apple (AAPL) - Apple’s top AI models executive, Ruoming Pang, is leaving for Meta, marking another setback for Apple’s AI ambitions, Bloomberg reports. Pang, who led the Apple foundation models team and joined from Alphabet (GOOG) in 2021, becomes the latest major hire for Meta’s new superintelligence group amid its aggressive talent drive.

MATERIALS

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  Rio Tinto (RIO) - The next Rio Tinto CEO is expected to consider big M&A deals and cost cuts, according to sources cited by Reuters. Final candidates will present to the board in London this week, with an announcement possible by late July. Internal candidates include Simon Trott, Bold Baatar, Jerome Pecresse, and Mark Davies.

UTILITIES

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  Vistra (VST) - Received Nuclear Regulatory Commission approval to extend operations of its 1,268MW Perry Nuclear Power Plant through 2046. The plant, first online in 1986, was operating under a 40-year licence. All six reactors in Vistra’s fleet now have approved extensions.

CONSUMER STAPLES

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  Hershey (HSY) - Appointed Kirk Tanner as President and CEO, effective August 18th, 2025.

OTHER TRADE

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  Japan Trade Stats - Japan’s exports rose 0.7% Y/Y in the first 20 days of June, improving from a 3% decline in the same period in May. The slight increase comes ahead of planned higher US tariffs and follows an average export growth of 4.6% over the year through May.


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  US-BRICS - The US will not immediately impose a new 10% tariff on a BRICS member in response to 'anti-American' actions, according to a source cited by Reuters. Brazilian President Lula said other countries have the right to respond if the US issues tariffs and called for alternatives to reliance on the USD in global transactions.


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  Germany Trade Stats - On the data front, Germany trade surplus widened to EUR 18.4bln in May (exp. 15.5bln, prev. 14.6bln), with imports falling by -3.8% M/M (exp. -0.9%), and exports declining by -1.4% M/M (exp. -0.2%); ING said the exports data disappointed, and shows that the reversal of the front-loading effect is still in full swing in the export sector.

MACRO

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  Federal Reserve - The Fed has a 9% probability of its benchmark lending rate hitting zero over the next seven years, according to a study by the NY and San Francisco Fed banks. The current high interest-rate uncertainty is a key factor contributing to this risk.


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  Treasury Cash Buffers - The US Treasury will rebuild its cash buffer after the debt ceiling hike, but expects to issue about USD 450bln in net bills in Q3, significantly less than the USD 1.1tln issued in the same period of 2023 after the debt ceiling suspension, BBG reports.


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  RBA - Australia’s RBA held its key interest rate steady at 3.85%, surprising most economists and traders who expected a 25bps cut; the central bank signalled a wait-and-see stance amid global uncertainty from US tariff plans, balancing easing pressures with a tight labour market and weak productivity growth.

GEOPOLITICS

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  US-Israel - US President Trump met Israeli PM Netanyahu at the White House as the Middle East shifts from conflict to diplomacy. Trump said Israel had agreed to conditions for a 60-day Gaza ceasefire, signalling a rare opening for renewed dealmaking in the region, WSJ reports.


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  US-Ukraine-Russia - President Trump said the US will send more weapons to Ukraine, reversing recent Pentagon halts on air-defence missiles and artillery shells, to help Ukraine defend itself amid heavy attacks.

08 Jul 2025 - 13:58- Geopolitical- Source: Newsquawk