Daily US Equity Opening News - SMCI employees charged in NVDA server export scheme; FDX rises after beat and raise

TODAY’S AGENDA

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  US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.3%, NQ -0.4%, YM -0.2%, RUT -0.3%


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  DAY AHEAD: On the speakers’ slate, ECB’s Nagel (Hawk) is due. In energy, Baker Hughes will release weekly rig count stats. On today’s CRA slate, Scope will review Greece (BBB) and France (AA-); DBRS will review France (AA); Moody’s will review the EU (AAA) and the ESM (Aa1). Elsewhere, today is quadruple witching, where analysts say around USD 5.7tln of US stock, index and ETF options will expire, the largest March event on record, and escalating Middle East tensions could intensify the volatility. Citi and Goldman Sachs have noted elevated correlations, heavy short positioning, and two-way risks of further declines or a short-covering rebound.


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  BROKER MOVES: ARM double upgraded at HSBC; MOS downgraded at BofA. For the full list, click here.
  


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  MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: FDX, SMCI, NXST, TGNA, PL, UL, MKC, ARM, CMG, FIGS. For the full list, click here.
  


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  US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: MCHP . For the full list, click here.
  

IRAN

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  Kharg Island - The Trump Administration is reportedly considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran's Kharg Island to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reports citing sources. Such an operation, if approved, would also require more troops. Three different Marine units are on their way to the region. The White House and the Pentagon are considering sending even more troops soon, a US official said. Such an operation would only be launched after the US military further degrades Iran's military capacity around the Strait of Hormuz, Axios says; "We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes, take the island and then get them by the balls and use it for negotiations," a source with knowledge of the White House thinking said.


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  US - Reports on Thursday suggested that the Pentagon is weighing further troop deployments to the Middle East, though Politico sources said the scale and scope remain under review.


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  Israel - Israel PM Netanyahu said Iran can no longer enrich uranium or make ballistic missiles, and said US-Israeli operations have severely damaged Iranian capabilities. He added that Trump asked Israel to delay decisions on future South Pars strikes. Separately, Israel’s military said operations are not yet halfway complete, with officials and media reports indicating the campaign could continue for several more weeks. Netanyahu himself said the war might end sooner than people think.


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  Global Crude Prices - Saudi Arabia’s oil officials see a base case in which oil prices could rise above USD 180/bbl if Iran war-related energy supply disruptions continue until late April, WSJ reports.


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  Dubai Crude - S&P Global Energy revised the Dubai crude benchmark pricing process after the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted regional flows. Platts suspended the pricing offset for Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude, meaning Murban cannot trade below Dubai during the daily assessment, a move intended to encourage more tradable deliveries amid a regional supply crunch, Bloomberg said.


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  US LNG - After the outage at Qatar’s LNG complex, more LNG buyers and importers approached US suppliers on Thursday to secure fuel. Bloomberg said purchasers went directly to US producers and offtakers with long-term contracts for supply from existing and under-construction projects.


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  US Weapons, RTX (RTX), Lockheed Martin (LMT) - The US will fast-track up to USD 16.5bln of weapons sales to Middle East allies by bypassing Congress. The State Department approved a USD 8.0bln radar sale to Kuwait, and about USD 8.5bln of F-16 munitions, THAAD air defences and anti-drone FS-LIDS systems for the UAE.

NEWS:

TECH

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  Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN) - Nvidia will sell ~1M GPUs to Amazon Web Services through 2027, with deliveries starting this year, along with networking and other AI chips, Reuters reports. Deal size undisclosed; tied to Nvidia’s broader USD 1tln sales opportunity for Blackwell and Rubin chips.


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  AI Legislation - White House is expected to send Congress a federal AI legislative framework on Friday covering pre-emption, child safety, communities, creators and censorship, Axios reports. Policy disputes remain over children’s online protections and state-law preemption. The administration is working with House and Senate committees, while some AI companies say aligned state laws are manageable absent federal action.


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  AI Manufacturing - Jeff Bezos is in early talks to raise USD 100bln for a fund focused on acquiring manufacturing companies and using AI to speed automation, WSJ reports. The Amazon (AMZN) founder has met major asset managers and travelled to the Middle East and Singapore to seek backing. He was recently appointed co-CEO of Project Prometheus.


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  Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Nvidia (NVDA) - US prosecutors charged Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw, Ruei-Tsang “Steven” Chang and Ting-Wei “Willy” Sun with conspiring to divert US-assembled high-performance servers with Nvidia GPUs to China in violation of export controls. Liaw and Sun were arrested, while Chang remains a fugitive. The indictment identifies Liaw as a Super Micro Computer co-founder and executive. Super Micro said it is not named as a defendant in the export-control indictment involving Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw, Ruei-Tsang “Steven” Chang and Ting-Wei “Willy” Sun. The company placed the two employees on administrative leave, ended its relationship with the contractor, said the alleged conduct violated its policies, and stated it is cooperating with the government investigation.


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  Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) - Samsung is reportedly discontinuing its premium Galaxy Z TriFold smartphone months after launch, indicating it served as a technology showcase rather than a mass-market product, DigiTimes reports. Separately, it reports that Samsung unveiled advanced memory products, including HBM, at its shareholders meeting on 18th March , signalling a strategic push to strengthen its semiconductor competitiveness in AI memory.


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  Anthropic - Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark held a closed-door bipartisan briefing with the House Homeland Security Committee on national security and AI, Axios reports. Discussions were focused mainly on model distillation and export controls, while Anthropic’s Pentagon dispute was only briefly addressed.


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  OpenAI - Plans a desktop “superapp” combining ChatGPT, Codex and its browser, with Fidji Simo overseeing the product revamp and Greg Brockman helping lead related organisational changes, WSJ reports.


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  Arm (ARM) - Double upgraded at HSBC to 'Buy' from 'Reduce' with a USD 205 PT (prev. 90), arguing that the company's transition from being a smartphone dependent semiIP play to a "major" AI server CPU beneficiary is "still being undervalued by the market." All major hyperscalers have Arm-based server CPUs and are moving to both its v9 architecture as well as Neoverse Compute Subsystems, doubling its royalty revenue per chip.


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  Salesforce (CRM) - Director Laura Alber purchased 2.6K shares on 19th March, for a total USD 499K.


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  Xiaomi (XIACY) - Xiaomi’s Hong Kong-listed shares fell overnight amid concerns its updated EV will pressure profitability after only a minor price increase. It also unveiled three new AI models, and will invest at least USD 8.7bln in AI over three years.


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  China AI Stocks - Alibaba and Tencent have now lost USD 66bln in market value in the last 24 hours, as investors reacted to a lack of clear plans to monetise AI, Bloomberg said; Alibaba’s US shares posted their biggest fall since October, while Tencent recorded its worst drop in almost a year after recent gains tied to expectations around OpenClaw-style AI agents.


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  Planet Labs (PL) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS -0.04 (exp. -0.05), Revenue 86.8mln (exp. 78.2mln); sees Q1 revenue of 87-91mln (exp. 83.6mln) and FY27 revenue of 415-440mln (exp. 377.5mln).

INDUSTRIALS

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  FedEx (FDX) - Shares rose in extended trading after it beat expectations on earnings and revenue, raised FY guidance. Q3 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 5.25 (exp. 4.13), Revenue 24bln (exp. 23.48bln). Federal Express segment operating results improved in Q3, driven by higher US domestic and International Priority package yields, continued cost savings from transformation initiatives and increased US domestic package volume, partly offset by higher incentive compensation, wage rates, trade policy impacts, increased purchased transportation rates and the MD-11 grounding. Said transformation programmes may reduce about 5,000 operational employees, which is expected to occur over around 18 months. The planned spin-off of FedEx Freight remains on track for June, and noted the MD-11 fleet grounding had an impact on Q3 results. The CEO said the quarter reflected disciplined execution, network resilience and accelerating digital solutions. The CFO said the improved outlook reflects profitable growth and positions FedEx for stronger free cash flow. Raised FY26 adj. EPS to 19.30-20.10 (exp. 18.66, prev. saw 17.80-19.00), raised FY26 revenue growth view to 6-6.5% (prev. saw 5-6%). The company also said the midpoint of its outlook implies Q4 adj. EPS of about 5.80, and it does not expect as large a sequential increase from Q3 to Q4 as in recent years. Meanwhile, it said geopolitical conflicts are not expected to have a direct material effect, but broader impacts, including higher fuel prices and shipping volatility, are adversely affecting the global economy.


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  GE Vernova (GEV) - The US and Japan announced three projects worth up to USD 73bln as the second round of Japan’s investment under last year’s USD 550bln tariff deal, with a focus on energy including next-generation nuclear reactors, which will be made by GEV. Japan will invest in gas-fired power plants in Pennsylvania and Texas.

MATERIALS

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  Fertilisers - A bipartisan group of US senators introduced a bill to require mandatory fertiliser price reporting after the Iran war drove the biggest rise in crop nutrient costs in years. Senator Klobuchar said higher fertiliser costs and low commodity prices are hurting farmers’ profitability, and called for greater price transparency, domestic production and storage.


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  China Silver - China’s silver imports rose to an eight-year high at the start of 2026 as industrial and investment demand increased. Chinese customs data showed imports of more than 790 tons in the first two months, including nearly 470 tons in February, the highest ever for that month, Bloomberg said. Strong demand lifted local prices above international benchmarks and reduced exchange stockpiles.


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  Rio Tinto (RIO) - Rio Tinto temporarily shut its Amrun and Andoom bauxite mines in Northern Queensland as tropical cyclone Narelle hit northeast Australia, affecting operations that produce about 30mln tons annually, Reuters reports.


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  H.B. Fuller (FUL) - Announced a global minimum 10% price increase across all product lines, effective April, with higher increases for some technologies and regions. The company said the move reflects petrochemical industry constraints affecting availability and raw material costs.


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  Mosaic (MOS) - Downgraded at Freedom Capital to 'Sell' from 'Hold' with a USD 24 PT (prev. 30). The firm said the Middle East conflict has created a "bifurcated shock" in the fertilizer market. The conflict will compress Mosaic's margins as input costs surge without a corresponding rise in realised product prices. Freedom says that unlike the company's nitrogen-heavy peers that benefit from the energy volatility, Mosaic's profitability is expected to trough in mid-2026 before stabilizing.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

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  Unilever (UL), McCormick (MKC) - Unilever is in talks to separate its food business and combine it with McCormick in an all-stock deal that could come within weeks, according to the WSJ. The remaining Unilever would focus on beauty, personal-care products and home. A deal could be reached by the end of the month and would be structured as a Reverse Morris Trust (a tax-efficient M&A structure allowing a parent company to divest a subsidiary or business unit without triggering federal corporate taxes on the gains).


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  Amazon (AMZN) - Acquired Zurich-based autonomous robotics startup Rivr, in a deal aimed at improving package delivery efficiency, The Information reports. A spokesperson confirmed the acquisition. Rivr was valued at USD 110mln in an August 2024 funding round. Meanwhile, Amazon reportedly developed a new mobile phone and looks to integrate AI voice features, sources said.


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  Tesla (TSLA) - In talks to buy CNY 20bln of solar panel and cell manufacturing equipment from Chinese suppliers including Suzhou Maxwell, with some exports requiring Beijing’s approval. The equipment would support a target of 100 GW of US solar manufacturing by end-2028, with deliveries sought before autumn and some shipments expected to go to Texas, Reuters reports.


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  XPeng (XPEV) Q4 (CNY): Adj. EPS 0.52 (prev. -1.47 Y/Y), Revenue 22.3bln (prev. 16.1bln Y/Y); sees Q1 deliveries between 61k-66k.


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  Chipotle (CMG) - Upgraded at Mizuho to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' with a USD 40 PT (prev. 37). The firm sees a comp "inflection" for Chipotle in the near-term along with incremental margin visibility. The company's Q1 earnings report and Q2-to-date commentary offer potential positive catalysts. Importantly, trends strengthened as the quarter progressed, pointing to Q2 traffic and comp upside. Mizuho expects Chipotle's sales to accelerate as 2026 progresses with easier compares ahead and says the company's cycle of lower margin revisions is almost at an end. It finds the stock's valuation as "overly pessimistic."


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  Figs (FIGS) - Upgraded at Oppenheimer to 'Outperform' from 'Perform'. The company is positioned for a "sustained recovery". Figs' recent results suggest that it has "re-established its strategic footing". Oppenheimer is now optimistic that the company's improved operations and easing macro backdrop could put Figs on a path toward "peak performance metrics."

HEALTHCARE

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  Novartis (NVS) - Agreed to acquire an experimental breast cancer drug from Synnovation Therapeutics for up to USD 3bln, including USD 2bln upfront and up to USD 1bln in milestone payments.


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  Vaccine Advisors - HHS is considering replacing the CDC vaccine advisory panel or appealing a federal judge’s ruling that the appointments were unlawful, WSJ reports. The panel’s future was briefly thrown into doubt after one member said it would be dismantled, before later saying that the conclusion was based on miscommunication.


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  Eli Lilly (LLY) - England’s drug price regulator must reconsider its decision not to recommend Eli Lilly’s Alzheimer’s drug donanemab for NHS use after Lilly won an appeal, Bloomberg reports. NICE will review its initial guidance, which stated that the benefits of Kisunla did not justify the cost for the public health service. The drug is authorised in the UK and is currently available only privately.


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  Qiagen (QGEN) - Said newly published clinical and health economic data support use of QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus for tuberculosis infection detection, especially in immunocompromised and other high-risk groups.


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  Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (RYTM) - FDA approved its treatment, Imcivree, as the first therapy for acquired hypothalamic obesity; said approval comes after late-stage trial showed patients on Imcivree cut Body mass index by about 16% over a year, vs. an increase on those given placebo.

FINANCIALS

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  Citigroup (C) - Citigroup global chair of investment banking John Chirico will retire after decades advising some of the bank’s most important clients. The move was announced in an internal memo.


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  Standard Chartered (SCBFY) - Standard Chartered and BSI Bank failed in Singapore High Court bids to join winding-up applications linked to 1MDB. The judge ruled that the banks could not intervene in the applications brought by four offshore companies because they did not meet the criteria as contingent creditors, Bloomberg reports.

COMMUNICATIONS

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  Nexstar (NXST), Tegna (TGNA) - The Justice Department unconditionally cleared Nexstar’s USD 3.5bln acquisition of Tegna; the DOJ granted early termination, ending its review of the deal. The decision came less than a day after a group of state attorneys general sued to block the transaction.


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  Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) - Tencent is rapidly rolling out agentic AI across WeChat, a move that could reshape competition in Chinese AI, DigiTimes reports.

REAL ESTATE

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  Realty Income (O), Apollo (APO) - Realty Income and Apollo-managed funds intend to invest USD 1.0bln for a 49% stake in a new JV, expected to own a diversified portfolio of about 500 single-tenant retail properties under long-term net leases. Realty Income will continue managing the portfolio. The transaction is expected to close on 31st March.

ENERGY

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  Australia LNG - Australia is weighing a windfall tax on its LNG industry as fuel prices rise. PM Albanese asked the Treasury to model the measure.

20 Mar 2026 - 12:48- Geopolitical- Source: Newsquawk