Daily US Equity Opening News: NKE tumbles on soft guidance; RH hit on earnings and outlook miss; BAC & WFC upgraded

TODAY'S AGENDA:

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  US INDEX FUTURES: ES +0.6%, NQ +0.8%, YM +0.5%, RUT +0.6%


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  DAY AHEAD: Attention remains on ongoing geopolitical developments regarding the Middle East Conflict, with Trump set to make an important nationwide address at 21:00EDT/02:00BST. On data, global PMI data will be in focus, particularly the ISM Manufacturing PMI from the US at 15:00BST/10:00EDT. February Retail Sales are also due at 13:30BST/08:30EDT ahead of Fed speak from Musalem (14:05BST/09:05EDT) and Barr (14:10BST/09:10EDT). In Canada, participants will be eyeing the BoC Minutes. The earnings highlight is Conagra Brands (CAG) at 12:30BST/07:30EDT. Energy traders will be eying the weekly EIA inventory report, following the Private inventory overnight, which saw a chunky build in crude stocks but large draws in products. Crude stocks +10.3mln (exp. -1.3mln), Gasoline -3.2mln (exp. -2.2mln) and Distillates -10.4mln (exp. -1.3mln). Cushing rose by 800k. US President Trump is expected to give a nationwide address on Wednesday regarding an important update on Iran at 21:00EDT/02:00BST, according to the White House.


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  BROKER MOVES: WFC and BAC upgraded at HSBC; NKE downgraded at JPM, GS, and BofA after Q3 earnings report. For the full list, click here.
  


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  MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: XLE, NKE, RH, CALM, NCNO, TH, BAC, UNH, RIVN. For the full list, click here.
  


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  US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: EPD. Please click here for the full calendar.


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  ISM MANUFACTURING PREVIEW: The headline ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to show little change at 52.3 from 52.4. Prices Paid are seen rising to 72.5 from 70.5, while the employment gauge will be watched ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, with the manufacturing employment PMI previously remaining in contractionary territory at 48.8. As a basis for comparison, S&P Global’s flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4 in March from 51.6 in February, a two-month high, while the Manufacturing Output Index edged up to 52.9 from 52.7. Factory conditions improved for an eighth consecutive month, with production growth accelerating slightly and new orders recording their largest increase since October. Export orders stabilised after eight months of decline, while some firms reported easing tariff-related pressure and increased safety stock building to secure supply and pricing. Supplier delivery times lengthened by the most since October 2022, reflecting war-related shipping disruption and stronger purchasing activity. Input costs rose sharply on higher energy prices, and goods selling prices increased at the fastest pace since last August. Employment growth, meanwhile, slowed to its weakest in eight months.

IRAN

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  MIDDLE EAST: Focus remains on developments in the Middle East after the optimism seen in markets on Monday over a potential end to the war. Trump said overnight that the United States could leave Iran in two to three weeks. However, the Daily Mail reported that Trump is seriously considering taking Kharg Island, so uncertainty remains, and the outcome will largely depend on the negotiations. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key issue, with the United States suggesting it could leave Iran without securing the strait and calling on countries that use it to secure it themselves. This morning, the Iranian Deputy Parliament Speaker said the Hormuz will never be opened, which saw markets fade some of the recent optimism. U.S. President Trump is due to deliver a nationwide address tonight at 21:00 EDT/02:00 BST with an important update on Iran.


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  Trump - US President Trump said regarding lowering gas prices that all he has to do is leave Iran, suggests will be leaving Iran in two weeks or maybe three weeks. "We're finishing the job, which may take two to three weeks." Maybe we could make a deal before that; Could exit the war even without a deal with Iran.


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  UAE - The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the US and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, according to WSJ.


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  Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament - Iranian Deputy Speaker of Parliament said "Strait of Hormuz will never be opened, there has been no negotiation and there will be no negotiation", Fars reports. Meanwhile, the Iranian Foreign Minister highlighted that "So far, we have not given any answer to this 15-point plan of America. No response provided."


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  QatarEnergy - Qatari Defence said a cruise missile struck an oil tanker chartered for QatarEnergy in the economic waters, Al Arabiya reports.


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  US/NATO - US President Trump said he is strongly considering pulling the US out of NATO after it failed to join his war on Iran, The Telegraph reports.

FED SPEAK PREVIEW:

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  Fed's Musalem (2028 Voter, Hawk) to speak on the economy and monetary policy, text and Q&A expected. This will be the first speech from Musalem since the March FOMC, where we may get an updated view on his dot plots and his views on how the Middle East conflict will affect the US economy and thus his reaction function. Musalem usually leans hawkish and has previously suggested that policy is neutral now in real terms, while he also tends to be more concerned about the inflation side of the mandate over the employment side.


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  Fed's Barr (Voter, Neutral) to speak on AI and Consumer Issues, no text but a Q&A is expected. Given the title of the speech, we may not see much related to policy. Speaking last week, Barr said it makes sense to hold interest rates steady as the Middle East conflict, amongst other factors, complicates efforts to return inflation to 2%. He said tariff effects on inflation could persist beyond this year, and noted that non-housing services inflation and core inflation remain elevated.

Q1 M&A

• WSJ reported that large corporate deals had their best quarterly showing ever, as companies forged ahead with tie-ups and investments despite the Iran war rattling markets. In Q1, LSEG data shows 22 transactions valued at USD 10bln or more have been announced globally, the most since Q4 2015, when 21 deals were announced.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

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  NIKE Inc. (NKE) Q3 2026 (USD): EPS 0.35 (exp. 0.30), Revenue 11.28bln (exp. 11.23bln) Total Nike brand revenue 11.01bln (exp. 10.94bln). Gross margin 40.2% (exp. 39.8%). Greater China EBIT 467mln (exp. 269.5mln). Inventory 7.49bln (exp. 7.53bln). Q4 revenue view -2 to -4%, gross margin view down 25-75bps. Sees Greater China -20% in Q4 and modest growth in North America. Nike were -1% after the initial earnings release before extending lower after soft guidance. Shares were downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at Goldman Sachs, BofA; JPM downgraded shares to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight'. Goldman left the company's fiscal Q3 report "incrementally cautious" on the timeline of its recovery. Nike's momentum in sportswear "remains muted," its inventory reset actions are ongoing, and China remains under "particular pressure". The firm believes "more patience will be needed" as Nike executes its strategic plan as macro headwinds pick up. As such, it sees a balanced risk/reward for the shares.


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  RH (RH) Q4 25 (USD): EPS 1.53 (exp. 2.20), Revenue 842.6 (exp. 873.3mln). FY26 revenue view +4 to +8% to 3.58-3.65bln (exp. 3.77bln). Q1 26 revenue view -4 to -2% (exp. 876.7mln). Sees FY26 free cash flow at USD 300-400mln vs. USD 252mln in FY25. Said 2-year revenue growth has outpaced industry peers by 7 to 30 basis points.


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  PVH Corp. (PVH) Q4 2025 (USD) EPS 3.82 (exp. 3.31), Revenue 2.51bln (exp. 2.43bln). Q1 EPS view 1.65-1.80 (exp. 2.39), revenue to increase slightly Y/Y. FY26 EPS view 11.80-12.10 (exp. 11.88), FY26 revenue view to increase slightly Y/Y.


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  Tesla (TSLA) - Analysts polled by Visible Alpha expect Tesla Q1 deliveries at about 368,900 vehicles, representing a sequential decline of 11.8% but growth of 9.6% Y/Y. The average of 23 estimates compiled by Tesla is 365,645units. Analysts expect deliveries of 1.7mln vehicles this year and 1.84mln units in 2027.


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  Rivian (RIVN) - Upgraded at DA Davidson to 'Neutral' from 'Underperform'. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade following the stock's recent selloff. Much of the recent pullback is related to a "mixed-at-best investor reaction" to the pricing of early R2 trims, which is 55% higher than expected for some consumers. DA believes this "not-insignificant gap" is one of the risks Rivian faces in delivering 20,000-25,000 R2 units this year.


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  China Autos (NIO, LI, XPEV) - Trump's envoy says that the US will not allow Chinese electric cars from Canada to enter its market.


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  Macau - Macau's gaming bureau reported March gross revenue from games of fortune in the region was up 15.0% Y/Y to 22.612bln patacas.


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  Nio (NIO) - Delivered 35,486 vehicles in March, representing an increase of 136% Y/Y. The deliveries consisted of 22,490 vehicles from the company's smart electric vehicle brand Nio, 6,877 vehicles from the company's smart electric vehicle brand Onvo, and 6,119 vehicles from the company's small smart electric car brand Firefly. The company delivered 83,465 vehicles in the first quarter, representing an increase of 98.3% Y/Y.


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  Xpeng (XPEV) - Delivered a total of 27,415 vehicles, representing an 80% increase M/M.


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  Li Auto (LI) - As of March 31, Li Auto's cumulative deliveries reached 1,635,357. With the production bottleneck resolved, Li i6 monthly deliveries surpassed 24,000 units in March. The new Li L9 is expected to launch in the second quarter of 2026.

TECH

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  Chinese chips - Chinese GPU and AI chipmakers captured almost 41% of China's AI accelerator server market last year, reducing Nvidia's (NVDA) dominant position, according to Reuters, citing data from an IDC. Total shipments of AI accelerator cards by Nvidia, AMD (AMD), and Chinese chipmakers reached ~4mln units in China in 2025. Nvidia remained the market leader, shipping around 2.2mln cards and holding a 55% share; AMD held a 4% share, shipping roughly 160k cards. Huawei Tech led Chinese vendors, shipping ~ 812k AI chips, roughly half of all domestically branded shipments; Alibaba (BABA) came in at second place, shipping ~265k cards. Baidu's (BIDU) Kunlunxin and Cambricon each shipped around 116,000 cards, ranking them joint third among Chinese vendors.


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  TSMC (TSM) - Is expected to launch equipment installation and mass production of 3nm wafers in 2028 at its second factory in Japan, according to a Taiwanese government filing.


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  Microsoft (MSFT) - In talks with Chevron (CVX) and Engine No. 1 over a long-term agreement that would underpin a major energy complex in West Texas that would provide power to a large data centre campus, according to Bloomberg. The proposed natural-gas-fired facility in West Texas is estimated to cost ~USD 7bln and initially generate 2,500 megawatts of electricity. Meanwhile, Microsoft is on track to invest USD 5.5bln in Cloud and AI infrastructure in Singapore through 2029, WSJ reports.


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  nCino (NCNO) Q4 26 (USD): EPS 0.37 (exp. 0.21), Revenue 141mln (exp. 147mln). Q1 revenue view 154.5-156.5mln (exp. 152.74mln). FY27 revenue view 639-643mln (exp. 639.57mln). FY27 FCF view 132-137mln. Announced a USD 100mln accelerated share repurchase programme and appoints Keith Kettell as Chief Revenue Officer.


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  Oracle (ORCL) - Following a CNBC article on Tuesday that the company is laying off thousands of employees, people familiar with the matter, Oracle said it will lay off 491 employees working remotely in Washington state and at its Seattle offices, effective June 1, according to a notice filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act. The job cuts are part of a "reduction in force and other terminations," Oracle said, adding that its Seattle sites will remain open. That said, according to the BBC, citing one employee, some 10,000 people are believed to have lost their jobs so far, citing a drop in the number of staff active on Oracle's internal messaging system Slack.


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  OpenAI - Raised USD 122bln funding at a ~USD 852bln valuation, with backing from Amazon, Nvidia, SoftBank, Microsoft, others. Company now at ~USD 2bln monthly revenue, highlighting rapid growth and scaling as a core AI infrastructure platform.


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  Super Micro Computer (SMCI) - Multiple new class action lawsuits and legal investigations have been launched against Super Micro Computer after the DoJ indictment of company-affiliated individuals over alleged illegal exports of AI servers to China, Yahoo reports. At least four law firms and shareholder groups are now pursuing claims that SMCI made misleading statements, failed to maintain adequate export compliance controls, and exposed investors to legal and regulatory risk.

INDUSTRIALS

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  Defence names - Swiss government said it will continue to withhold payments to the US until binding delivery dates and payment milestones are provided. The timeline for delivery of the Patriot long-range ground-based air defence system to Switzerland remains uncertain. Payments related to F-35a (LMT) were brought forward to the end of March 2026. Meanwhile, the Pentagon said it reached a framework deal with Boeing (BA) and Lockheed Martin (LMT) to triple the production capacity of PAC-3 MSE seekers, according to a statement.


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  Lockheed Martin (LMT) - Awarded a USD 1.36bln US Navy contract modification for Conventional Prompt Strike program support (engineering, integration, materials, testing). Work runs through Sept. 2032; awarded as a sole-source contract.


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  Leonardo DRS (DRS) - Awarded a USD 533mln Navy IDIQ contract for infrared countermeasure systems (sensors, processors, support) for Navy and Army. Work runs through April 2030; not completed, funding obligated per orders.


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  AAR Corp (AIR) - Awarded a USD 305.7mln Navy IDIQ contract for C-40A fleet logistics and maintenance support (incl. depot and field services). Work runs through March 2031; competitively awarded (4 bids), funding per orders.


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  AeroVironment (AVAV) - Selected by the US Navy to provide intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance services in critical operations.


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  RTX's (RTX) - Pratt & Whitney failed to reach a supply deal with Airbus (AIR FP) for new engines this year, prioritising ground fleet over new A320neo deliveries.


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  Airbus (EADSY) - Removed from Goldman Sachs European conviction list.


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  American Airlines (AAL) - American Airlines and Qantas receive interim approval from Australia to continue cooperating on trans-pacific routes linking Australia and New Zealand with US, Canada and Mexico.


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  Target Hospitality (TH) - Secured over a USD 550mln multi-year contract with a top five hyperscaler supporting a data centre development. The contract includes two two-year extension options through January 2035 and provides potential variable revenue of ~USD 20-40mln annually after completion. Sees FY26 total revenue between at USD 360-370mln.

FINANCIALS

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  Ares Management (ARES) - Raised over USD 9.8bln for Opportunistic Credit Strategy. The company stated: "Has closed on over USD 9.8bln of capital for its Opportunistic Credit strategy, inclusive of the final closing of Ares Special Opportunities Fund III LP and related transaction vehicles. With over USD 8.3bln in equity commitments, ASOF III significantly exceeded its target and prior vintage fund size. ASOF III represents one of the largest dedicated pools of private capital raised for opportunistic credit. ASOF III seeks to provide private debt, equity and hybrid solutions that fill the gap between for-control private equity and more traditional corporate lending, while also opportunistically purchasing stressed public corporate credits."


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  Wells Fargo (WFC) - Wells Fargo has deployed USD 200bln+ into the US repo market since asset cap removal, becoming a key liquidity provider, Bloomberg reports. Activity supports low-risk growth and market stability, alongside Fed efforts to ease bank participation.


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  HSBC (HSBC) - Added to Goldman Sachs’ European conviction list. Goldman believes the bank's "scaled "deposit franchise should drive net interest income and structural growth.


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  Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) - Banks were upgraded at HSBC to 'Buy' from 'Hold' with a USD 55 PT (prev. 57). The firm said markets have "quickly repriced" higher downside macro risk and renewed credit concerns into the US bank stocks. The multi-year return on equity expansion is now "less clearly priced in" for the universal banks, creating opportunities.


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  Citizens Financial (CFG) - Added to Goldman Sachs' US Conviction List. Goldman believes the bank should continue to benefit from its "best-in-class return improvement story" and solid organic growth from its private bank. The firm has a USD 76 PT on CFG.

CONSUMER STAPLES

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  Conagra Brands (CAG) Q3 26 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.39 (exp. 0.40), Revenue 2.79bln (exp. 2.76bln); Cut FY26 adj. EPS view to 1.70 (exp. 1.72, prev. 1.70-1.85) and expects COGS inflation to continue at an "elevated level" in FY26.


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  Cal-Maine (CALM) Q3 26 (USD): EPS 1.06 (exp. 0.78), Revenue 667mln (exp. 642mln); conventional egg sales 283.2mln, -72.1% Y/Y. The CEO expects a progressive recovery in prepared foods, with volumes rebounding as capacity comes online and utilisation improves, supported by steady underlying demand.


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  Philip Morris (PM) - US FDA applications for nicotine pouches like Zyn and Velo delayed despite fast-track scheme amid concerns over risks to non-users and kids, according to reports.


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  Coca-Cola (KO) - Plans USD 1bln South Africa investment through 2030 to expand capacity and bolster distribution.


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  L'Oreal (lrlcy), Kering (PPRUY) - Companies announced the completion of L'Oreal's acquisition of Kering Beaute.

COMMUNICATIONS

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  Disney (DIS) - Upgraded at Raymond James to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' with a USD 115 PT. The current macro backdrop and Disney's international visitation headwinds provide an opportunity to invest at a "very attractive valuation". The firm believes Disney shares are "historically cheap even in some of the more draconian scenarios" it stress tested. Raymond James points out that the company's streaming business represents the majority of its operating income growth. It sees Disney's risk/reward as attractive at current levels.


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  AT&T (T) - To invest ~USD 1bln to upgrade FirstNet and deliver USD 1bln in cost savings via lower rates under revised agreement. Deal tied to Trump-era contract review order; FirstNet serves 31,000 U.S. first responder agencies, per NTIA statement.

HEALTHCARE

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  GE HealthCare (GEHC) - Received an unsolicited mini-tender offer by Potemkin Limited to purchase up to 100k shares of GE HealthCare common stock at USD 45.80/shr in cash; GEHC recommends shareholders reject this.


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  UnitedHealth (UNH) - Upgraded at Raymond James to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' with a USD 330 PT. The firm believes the company's expense upside is greater than the Street expects following recent management comments. Additionally, Raymond James anticipates margin improvement at Optum Health. It cites potential upside to earnings estimates over the next few years for the upgrade.

ENERGY

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  The Energy Sector ETF (XLE) - ETF is lower in pre-market trade as oil prices dive as markets position for a potential end of the war following Trump's comments overnight that they could leave Iran within two to three weeks, adding to the optimism seen on Tuesday.


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  Shell (SHEL) - In advanced talks with Venezuela to expand into multiple offshore gas fields, beyond the Dragon project. Could include four areas tied to the ~12 tcf Mariscal Sucre project, with a possible FID on Dragon by year-end.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

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  Beyond Meat (BYND) Q4 25 EPS (USD): EPS -0.29 (exp. -0.10), Revenue -19.7% Y/Y to 61.6mln. Q1 revenue view 57-59mln (exp. 63mln). Unable to file the Annual Report on the 10-K form by the deadline.

01 Apr 2026 - 13:50- Fixed IncomeResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk