Daily US Equity Opening News - NKE surges after earnings; TikTok-META developing TV app; EU mulls actions against META

TODAY'S AGENDA:

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  DAY AHEAD: Final University of Michigan sentiment data is due today, where there will be particular focus on the 1yr and 5-10yr inflation expectations (currently 5.1% and 4.1%, respectively) - note, some Fed officials, like Fed's Barkin, have suggested that he has some concerns about taking too much of a signal from the Michigan sentiment data, perhaps due to the disparity between Republican and Democrats inflation expectations. Today's speakers' slate features Fed's Hammack (2026 voter) and Fed's Cook (voter) speaking on "Building Strong and Sustainable Communities". Remarks are also due from the ECB's Cipollone. In energy, the weekly Baker Hughes rig count changes are due.


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  BROKER MOVES: EL upgraded at HSBC; GOOGL downgraded at BNPP Exane. Click here for the full list.
  


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  MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: NKE, CNXC, TM, EL, META, BX, UNH. For the full list, click here.
  


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  DAILY US CONFERENCE CALENDAR: ANET. Click here for the full calendar.
  


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  WEEK AHEAD: Highlights include US NFP, ISMs, EZ CPI, Japanese Tankan, China PMIs and Swiss CPI. Click here for the full report.
  

EQUITY NEWS:

TRADE

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  US Trade Deals - The US and China finalised a trade understanding, which was signed two days ago, and confirms commitments including China’s rare earth supply, according to US Commerce Secretary Lutnick. The White House also plans imminent agreements with 10 major trading partners, he added.


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  US-China - China and the US confirmed details of a trade framework, with China agreeing to approve export applications for controlled items per law, while the US will lift certain restrictive measures. Both sides maintained close communication following recent meetings in London.


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  US-Europe - European allies face reluctance over “Buy American” policies despite recent military budget increases, as they must rely heavily on US weapons amid urgent defence rebuilding, Bloomberg reports. President Trump’s recent European visit reinforced this reliance, even as some countries prefer more diverse procurement options. Separately, EC President von der Leyen said the EU is prepared for a possible breakdown in trade talks with the US, following a review of the Trump administration’s latest tariff proposal, which is still under assessment. The WSJ reports that the EU is considering lowering tariffs on various US imports to secure a swift trade deal with Trump; EU leaders plan to debate potential concessions, including reducing non-tariff barriers, increasing US product purchases like LNG, and cooperating on China-related economic issues.


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  US-Japan - Japan’s economy minister said the government will act “without hesitation” to counter the impact of US auto tariffs, pledging additional measures if needed to support the industry amid escalating trade tensions.


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  US Reconcilliation Bill - On whether the US Reconcilliation Bill can be sent to President Trump by the July 4th deadline, Punchbowl surmises that it is possible, but is becoming increasingly difficult; Senators say voting will not begin until Saturday at the absolute earliest; "...one key holdout said they’re far from the point when Trump will be needed to help close a deal." Senators said voting will not begin until Saturday at the absolute earliest, with that viewed as optimistic. Senate parliamentarian ruling focused on "the provider tax freeze in the bill rather than the Senate’s more drastic constraints for Medicaid expansion states, according to two sources with knowledge of the decision". Republicans believe they can come up with a fix. President Trump has reportedly told multiple GOP senators privately that he prefers the House’s provider tax framework, which is much less drastic than the Senate’s version.


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  Trump vs. Casa - The US Supreme Court is to commence the last ruling day of the current term at 10:00ET/15:00BST, via Politico; watching out for the Trump v. Casa ruling. Trump v. Casa is a challenge to Trump's executive order, which ended birthright citizenship. Playbook surmises it as "the Trump administration’s request to rein in the power of federal district court judges to block federal policies on a nationwide basis". Politico's Josh writes, "The court could tell judges to narrow those injunctions and future ones in other cases, or set some criteria for them, or could snub the administration by turning down the request". Alternatively, the court could focus on just the birthright component and "push the whole fight off until sometime this fall...". Desks focused on this in the context of the NY Court of International Trade which, on May 28th, ruled the President exceeded the authority granted to him under the IEEPA by imposing across-the-board tariffs; IEEPA is meant to address "unusual and extraordinary" threats during periods of emergency. The ruling sparked a risk-on reaction. Note, the ruling was not pertinent to industry-specific tariffs, i.e. if the Supreme Court rules, in the Trump v. Casa case, that the smaller court overstepped its authority, then it is plausible they could take the same approach to the NY court ruling; though this is entirely speculative, as it stands.

MACRO

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  Fed Chair Appointment - The White House said President Trump’s decision on a successor for Federal Reserve Chair Powell is not imminent, despite reports suggesting a summer pick. Officials noted no decisions are near, though Trump retains the right to change his mind and has multiple potential nominees.


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  SPX - UBS Global Wealth Management raised its S&P 500 year-end price target to 6,200 (prev. saw 6,000).

TECH

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  Apple (AAPL) - Proposed an overhaul of its App Store to address EU antitrust concerns following a EUR 500mln fine. The plan aims to reduce costs and barriers for third-party developers to direct customers away from Apple’s ecosystem for payments.


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  SoftBank (SFTBY) - Masayoshi Son said he may lead SoftBank for another decade, but has internal candidates in mind for succession, including Junichi Miyakawa. He has not disclosed names, but noted they work closely with him, addressing investor concerns during the firm’s AGM while reaffirming his AI-driven vision, Bloomberg reports.


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  Uber Technologies (UBER) - In early talks to help fund ex-CEO Travis Kalanick’s potential acquisition of Pony.ai’s US unit, as competition from Waymo and Tesla’s robotaxi services intensifies, NYT reports. Kalanick would run Pony if the deal proceeds, marking his return to autonomous vehicles while continuing to lead CloudKitchens.


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  Concentrix (CNXC) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 2.70 (exp. 2.75), Revenue 2.42bln (exp. 2.38bln). Outlook: Q3 EPS 2.80–2.90 (exp. 2.90), Q3 revenue 2.45–2.47bln (exp. 2.39bln). Raised FY25 EPS view to 11.53–11.76 (exp. 11.53), revenue outlook to 9.72–9.82bln (exp. 9.61bln). Expects adj. FCF at 625-650mln, and returns 240mln to shareholders.


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  Domo (DOMO), Snowflake (SNOW) - Expanded its collaboration with Snowflake to offer a fully managed analytics and BI solution via Snowflake Marketplace.


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  DeepSeek - Germany's data protection commissioner has asked Apple and Google to remove Chinese AI startup DeepSeek from their app stores in the country due to concerns about data protection, Reuters reports.

COMMUNICATIONS

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  Alphabet (GOOGL) - Downgraded at BNP Paribas Exane to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform'. The firm notes the cost of the ongoing GenAI infrastructure build-out and determines that consensus is likely still underestimating 1) the amount of CAPEX to be spent and 2) the depreciation costs that are set to hit hyperscalers' P&Ls. This may create downside risk to consensus earnings estimates, and create risk of multiple contractions for selected hyperscalers. Moreover, Google's business model transition risks may weigh on top line Search Advertising growth as Google sees fewer Search clicks, and explores new monetisation approaches like AI Overviews, AI Mode, Live Search and the Gemini Assistant.


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  Meta Platforms (META) - Said EU commission continues to discriminate against its legitimate business model. Meta said it has engaged constructively with EU antitrust regulators, and introduced extensive changes despite EUs moving goalposts; the changes made go beyond what EU rules require. Separately, Meta is in advanced talks to acquire AI voice startup PlayAI, aiming to boost its AI assistant and smart glasses capabilities, Bloomberg reports. The deal would include technology and some employees but is not final, with financial terms undisclosed.


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  ByteDance, Meta Platforms (META) - TikTok and Instagram are developing TV apps to expand viewership beyond mobile, following YouTube’s (GOOG) success on connected TVs, The Information reports. The move targets longer viewing sessions and greater ad revenue, as both platforms seek to compete more directly with traditional streaming and YouTube’s dominance in the living room.


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  Alphabet (GOOG), Oracle (ORCL) - Alphabet appointed Kobi Bar-Nathan, formerly Oracle’s cloud CFO and previously at Microsoft, as its new CFO for Google Cloud, signalling intensified competition in the cloud industry.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

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  Nike (NKE) - Nike's shares rose by over 10% in extended trading after its Q4 results signalled that the sales slump is bottoming out, and the CEO's turnaround strategy gained investor support following an upbeat earnings call, reversing some of the stock’s recent declines. Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.14 (exp. 0.12), Revenue 11.097bln (exp. 10.66bln); Q4 net income 211mln (exp. 185.9mln), Q4 pretax profit 318mln (exp. 233.5mln). Gross margins fell by 440bps in Q4 to 40.3%; Direct revenue was down 14%, wholesale was down 9%. Q4 inventory 7.49bln (exp. 7.17bln). Outlook/commentary: Exec said Q4 reflected the largest financial impact for its 'Win Now' actions and expects headwinds to moderate from here. CEO said the sportswear industry remains affected by geopolitical and tariff uncertainty. Nike expects tariffs to raise costs by about 1bln, and Q1 gross margins will fall 350-425bps, including a 100bps tariff impact for the sportswear maker. Q1 revenue is projected to decline by mid-single digits. The CFO added share buybacks have been moderated and cost reductions may be evaluated. To cut its reliance on production in China for the US market to mitigate the impact of US tariffs on imports. Currently, China accounts for about 16% of the shoes Nike imports into the US, but CFO Matthew Friend says they aim to cut it to a "high single-digit percentage range" by the end of May 2026. Post-earnings, NKE was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at HSBC with a USD 80 PT (prev. 60). The bank says there is now "more than tangible evidence" that Nike has a path to see its sales rebound in the "not-too-distant future". HSBC expects the company's margins will be "repaired" despite an unfavourable tariff headwind.


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  Alibaba (BABA) - Promoted e-commerce chief Jiang Fan to its five-member Partnership Committee. Simultaneously, it reduced the broader leadership body from 26 to 17 members, signalling a strategic shift towards AI and international growth.


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  Unilever (UL) - Will acquire men’s grooming brand Dr Squatch from Summit Partners for USD 1.5bln, according to the FT, citing sources. The deal, previously announced without terms, adds to Unilever’s men’s care portfolio including Axe and Dove Men+Care, and is aimed at scaling Dr Squatch internationally. Summit had earlier sought over USD 2bln.


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  Starbucks (SBUX) - Appointed Dambisa Moyo and Marissa Mayer to its board, effective 25 June. Moyo brings global economic and investment expertise, with prior roles at Goldman Sachs and the World Bank. Mayer, CEO of Sunshine AI and former Yahoo! CEO, adds over 20 years of consumer tech experience.


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  Best Buy (BBY), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) - Best Buy appointed Neal Sample as chief digital and technology officer, previously executive vice president and chief information officer at Walgreens.


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  Toyota Motors (TM) - Toyota’s global sales hit a third consecutive monthly record in May at 955,532 vehicle units, +8% Y/Y, driven by strong hybrid demand in the US, Japan, and China, Bloomberg reports. Production reached 906,984 units despite concerns over tariffs on imported cars.


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  MGM Resorts International (MGM) - MGM Yonkers, a subsidiary of MGM Resorts International, submitted a USD 2.3bln commercial casino license application to New York regulators to transform Empire City Casino. Aims for completion by mid-2029.


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  Skechers USA (SKX) - Skechers priced over USD 6bln in debt to back its buyout by 3G Capital, including bonds and loans. Some tranches offer better borrower pricing and allow deferred cash interest, while bond investors gained protections preventing asset transfers to new subsidiaries.


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  Estee Lauder (EL) - Upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Hold' at HSBC with a USD 99 PT (prev. 80). HSBC notes the magnitude of Estee's restructuring program and USD weakness could signal an end to the company's earnings downgrades. HSBC says a combination of Leonard Lauder's passing, hopes of stabilization in Chinese consumption, dollar weakness and "American resilience" drive its upgrade to Buy.


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  Li Auto (LI) - Expects to deliver circa 108k vehicles in Q2 (vs. May 29th guidance of 123-128k).


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  Shein - Expected to file a draft prospectus for a Hong Kong IPO, via Reuters citing sources; expected to occur by Monday.

CONSUMER STAPLES

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  United Natural Foods (UNFI) - United Natural Foods experienced reduced sales volume and higher operational costs after a security breach in June disrupted order fulfilment, it said. The incident did not involve personal data and has been contained, with core systems restored. The breach is expected to materially impact net income and adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2025, though cybersecurity insurance will cover related costs, it added.


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  Walmart (WMT) - Closing its Sam’s Club fulfilment centre in Fort Worth, Texas, affecting fewer than 200 employees. Operations will shift to a high-tech facility in Lancaster, Texas, and three other Dallas-area sites, Reuters reports. Walmart offered a USD 7,500 transfer bonus and relocation support for workers who move to other centres. Separately, Walmart-backed Flipkart is leveraging video content and live streaming to engage young Indian consumers and boost online sales.


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  Target (TGT) - Will introduce smartphone-controlled digital locks on store shelves to reduce theft and speed up access, Chief Stores Officer Adrienne Costanzo said. The technology may extend to Shipt delivery employees and paid membership users. Target is also testing product bundles, like coffee and snacks, on its website to compete better and boost sales, aiming to gauge consumer interest and offer greater value.


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  J.M. Smucker (SJM) - Will remove all FD&C colours from its consumer food products by end-2027.


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  DOGE - US DOGE Service has sent staff to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives with the goal of revising or eliminating dozens of rules and gun restrictions by July 4th, via WaPo citing sources.


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  Cognac - French Cognac producers have reportedly agreed on a tentative deal with China's MOFCOM on minimum import prices, via Reuters citing sources. China has reportedly made finalising the minimum price deal conditional on progress in talks on the EU's EV tariffs.

FINANCIALS

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  US Bond ETFs - Taiwanese investors have withdrawn about USD 3.3bln from US-focused bond ETFs this year, the fastest outflow since early 2020, driven by rising currency risks, BBG reports. This sell-off in Taiwan, Asia’s most active bond ETF market, surpasses other regional markets, and could further strengthen the island’s currency, the report adds.


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  Japan Bonds - Japanese households increased their JGB holdings by 17.1% Y/Y as of end-March, the fastest growth since 2007, according to the BOJ, marking a ninth straight quarterly rise as higher yields draw retail demand amid ongoing inflation. Separately, Daiwa House Industry’s pension fund has allocated 57% of its assets to alternatives including private equity, private debt and hedge funds as of March-end, marking a sharp departure from bonds amid efforts to boost returns in a low-yield environment.


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  Blackstone (BX), Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) - Blackstone has acquired another USD 2bln in commercial real estate loans from Atlantic Union Bankshares at a discount of around 7%, adding to its USD 20bln in purchases over 24 months, WSJ reports. The loans are performing and backed by apartments and retail but discounted due to higher rates since origination.


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  Banco de Sabadell (BNDSY), BBVA (BBVA) - BBVA is considering continuing its takeover bid for Banco Sabadell and consulting investors for support after Spain ruled the banks could not fully merge for several years, Bloomberg reports. BBVA believes most cost savings remain achievable, albeit more slowly, but the final decision depends on backing from key investors.


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  PayPal (PYPL) - PayPal CEO Alex Chriss said stablecoin adoption in the US faces significant challenges and will take time. He noted the lack of consumer incentives, prompting PayPal to introduce rewards and incentives to encourage usage.


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  Crypto - House Republicans plan a single procedural vote to advance both the Genius Act (stablecoin regulation) and Clarity Act (crypto market structure), aiming to send the Senate-backed legislation to President Trump as early as the week of July 7th, according to Bloomberg citing sources.

MATERIALS

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  Australia Rare Earths - Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers has launched Federal Court proceedings against Indian Ocean International Shipping for failing to divest its stake in Northern Minerals as ordered under foreign investment rules. It's the first legal action of its kind and targets non-compliance with a 2024 divestment directive.


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  Phoenix Tailings IPO - US rare earths refiner Phoenix Tailings aims for an IPO within three years after expanding production plants for rare earth elements used in automobiles, medical devices, and military equipment. CEO described the target as aggressive but consistent with his daily approach to ambitious goals.


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  Akzo Nobel (AKZOY), JSW Group (JSTL) - JSW agreed to acquire up to 75% of Akzo Nobel’s Indian business for about EUR 1.4bln, including debt. The deal is expected to close in Q4 2025 and will generate approximately EUR 900mln in net cash proceeds for Akzo Nobel.


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  China Copper - Chile’s Antofagasta agreed with some Chinese copper smelters to a record low zero processing fee per metric ton and per pound, down from USD 21.25/ton and 0.02125/pound in 2025 benchmarks. Reuters said it benefits smelters amid concentrate shortages, but may deepen losses and pressure production cuts in China.


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  China Coal - China’s thermal coal market has shown signs of seasonal recovery amid a heatwave, with benchmark prices rising from a four-year low of RMB 610/ton to RMB 619/ton, according to CCTD, after months of steady decline since last autumn.


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  Givaudan (GVDNY) - Will acquire a majority stake in Vollmens Fragrances; terms undisclosed. The deal will be funded via existing resources, and is expected to close in H2 2025. Both Givaudan and Vollmens’ founding family have options to increase Givaudan’s shareholding in the future.

INDUSTRIALS

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  General Dynamics (GD) - Received a not-to-exceed USD 1.85bln US Navy contract modification for long lead materials and preliminary construction of Virginia-class Block VI submarines.


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  AeroVironment (AVAV) - AeroVironment’s Wildcat UAS has achieved key milestones in DARPA’s Early VTOL Aircraft Demonstration, completing VTOL-to-forward-flight transitions, validating core flight and propulsion systems, and starting mission payload integration.


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  DNOW (DNOW), MRC Global (MRC) - DNOW will acquire MRC Global in an all-stock deal valued at about USD 1.5bln including net debt, creating a leading energy and industrial solutions provider. MRC shareholders receive 0.9489 DNOW shares per MRC share, a +8.5% premium. The combined enterprise value is around USD 3.0bln, with shareholders owning 56.5% DNOW, and 43.5% MRC post-merger.


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  AZZ (AZZ) - Boosted quarterly dividend +17.6% to 0.20/shr.

HEALTHCARE

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  UnitedHealth (UNH) - UnitedHealth Group’s Optum Health care delivery unit leader has left, signalling management changes under new CEO Stephen Hemsley, Bloomberg reports. Patrick Conway, recently promoted to CEO of the broader Optum division, will also serve as Optum Health CEO.


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  CVS Health (CVS) - CVS Health's PBM unit must pay the US government USD 95mln after a federal judge found it overcharged Medicare for prescription drugs.


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  Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) - Announced that the FDA has approved label updates for both of its CAR T cell therapies, Breyanzi for the treatment of large B cell lymphoma and other lymphomas and Abecma for the treatment of multiple myeloma.

ENERGY

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  UAE Crude, BP (BP), TotalEnergies (TTE) - UAE’s surprise cut to Murban crude supply to partners including BP and TotalEnergies caused trading losses due to hedging mismatches in derivatives, with losses reaching up to USD 12/bbl for some equity shareholders, a steep relative to typical profits of a few cents per barrel, Bloomberg reports.


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  Canada Energy - Canada’s Senate passed PM Carney’s bill to fast-track major projects like pipelines and mines which are deemed in the national interest, speeding up environmental and other reviews. The legislation aims to boost economic growth amid a trade war with the US.

27 Jun 2025 - 13:50- Geopolitical- Source: Newsquawk