Daily US Equity Opening News - Latest regional bank earnings ease recent fears; LLY & NVO hit by Trump push for lower prices

TODAY'S AGENDA:

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  US INDEX FUTURES: ES unch, NQ -0.1%, YM +0.2%, RUT unch.


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  DAY AHEAD: In energy, Baker Hughes will release weekly rig count data in the afternoon. Today's speakers include Fed's Musalem (2025 voter); the Fed will enter its blackout period on October 18th ahead of its October 29th confab. BoE's Greene and BoE's Breeden are also scheduled. Today's CRA docket includes potential reviews by DBRS on Italy (currently BBB), S&P on the Netherlands (AAA), and S&P on Greece (BBB/A-2).


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  BROKER MOVES: JEF upgraded at Oppenheimer; ZION upgraded at Baird; ASTS downgraded at Barclays. For the full list, click here.
  


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  MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: ZION/WAL, RF, TFC, FITB, HBAN, ALLY, STT, AXP, MY, LLY/NVO. For the full list, click here.
  


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  US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: MCHP, MRK, LLY, MRNA, PFE, GM, ED. For the full list, click here.
  

TRADE

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  Trump/China - US President Trump, on China trade, said we will see what happens, I do not know what is going to happen, will be meeting in a couple of weeks; on 100% tariffs, says it is not sustainable, they forced me to do that. We are going to do fine with China; We have to have a fair deal. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier are to speak over the phone today, via CNBC.

FINANCIALS

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  Regional Banks - US regional bank stocks fell sharply on Thursday as Zions Bancorp (ZION) reported a USD 50mln charge-off from two bad loans and Western Alliance (WAL) cited a fraudulent borrower, amplifying concerns over credit markets. Zions dropped over 11%, Western Alliance over 10%, and Jefferies fell 9%. The S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index dropped 6.3%, marking its worst decline since April.


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  American Express Co (AXP) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 4.14 (exp. 4.00), Revenue 18.43bln (exp. 18.06bln), Provisions for credit losses 1.3bln (exp. 1.41bln, prev. 1.4bln Y/Y). The decrease reflected a lower reserve build compared to the prior year, partially offset by higher net write-offs. The third-quarter net write-off rate was 1.9%, flat Y/Y. Guidance: FY EPS 15.20-15.50 (exp. 15.34), FY revenue growth 9-10%.


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  Truist Financial Corp (TFC) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.04 (exp. 1.00), 5.24 (exp. 5.19bln), NIM 3.02% (exp. 2.8%), NII 3.63bln (exp. 3.694bln). Guidance: Q4 adj. revenue growth 1-2% (exp. 5.32bln); raised FY outlook, now sees FY25 EPS at 15.20-15.50 (exp. 15.35), FY adj. revenue growth 1.5-2.5% (exp. 20.51bln)


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  Regions Financial Corp (RF) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj EPS 0.63 (exp. 0.60), Revenue 1.92bln (exp. 1.92bln), Provisions for credit losses 105mln (prev. 126mln Q/Q), NIM 3.59% (prev. 3.65% Q/Q, 3.54% Y/Y). Commentary: "Overall asset quality metrics remained stable to improving during the most recent quarter. Net charge-offs were 135mln or an annualised 55 basis points of average loans during the third quarter, representing an 8 basis point increase compared to the second quarter." "The majority of business services charges came from previously identified portfolios of interest, which were already reserved for. Business services criticised loans improved significantly during the quarter, decreasing almost USD 1bln, +20%, while non-performing loans decreased 2%, with the ratio of non-performing loans as a percentage of total loans declining 1 basis point to 79 basis points." Business services criticised loans decreased ~1bln or 20% while NPL balances declined 2%; ACL/NPLs increased to 226%. Low-cost deposit base continues to deliver peer-leading interest-bearing deposit costs of 2.01%. Expenses remain well-controlled and support self-funding of core modernisation and growth initiatives. Growth: Continuing to grow accounts across consumer checking, small business and wealth management. Wealth Management marked its 3rd consecutive record fee quarter, alongside a new record performance in Capital Markets (excl. customer derivative valuation adjustments).


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  Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 0.91 (exp. 0.87), Revenue 2.31bln (exp. 2.28bln), NII 1.53bln (exp. 1.52bln), NIM 3.13% (prev. 3.12% Q/Q), net charge-offs of 178mln related to impairment of an asset-backed finance commercial credit. Commercial net charge-offs 275mln, with a commercial NCO ratio of 1.46%, up 108bps from the prior quarter. The increase in commercial net charge-offs from the prior quarter was primarily due to the asset-backed credit mentioned above. Consumer net charge-offs were 64mln, with a consumer NCO ratio of 0.52%, down 4 bps sequentially. Sees Q4 net charge off ratio 40bps and expects Q4 NII to be stable to +1% vs Q3.


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  Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 0.41 (exp. 0.38), Revenue 2.15bln (exp. 2.06bln), provision for credit losses 122mln (exp. 106mln). CEO said: "Credit quality remains top tier, with net charge-offs at 0.22% and stable asset quality metrics, reflecting our disciplined client selection and proactive portfolio management". Raised midpoint FY25 mid-point FY25 NII to +10-11% Y/Y (prev. +8-9%).


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  State Street Corp (STT) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 2.78 (exp. 2.64), Revenue 3.545bln (exp. 3.45bln). NII 715mln (exp. 740mln). Provision for credit losses 9mln (prev. 30mln Q/Q).


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  Comerica Inc (CMA) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 1.35 (exp. 1.30), Net income 176mln (170mln), NII 574mln (568.5mln), NIM 3.09%, CET1 11.9%.


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  Ally Financial (ALLY) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.15 (exp. 1.01), Revenue 2.17bln (exp. 2.12bln), Adj. net income 363mln (exp. 314.6mln). Guidance: Raised lower-end of FY25 NIM view to 3.45-3.50% (prev. 3.40-3.50%); trimmed retail auto NCOs to 2.00-2.15% Y/Y (prev. 2.00-2.25%).


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  FNB Corporation (FNB) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 0.41 (exp. 0.37), Revenue 457mln (exp. 447mln). Raised FY25 NII outlook to 1.39-1.41bln (prev. saw 1.35-1.39bln).


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  Jefferies (JEF) - Upgraded at Oppenheimer to 'Outperform' from 'Perform' with a USD 81 PT. Oppenheimer writes that Jefferies has a "specific issue" with its First Brands exposure, but this is "very limited." The stock is down on "atmospheric" credit concerns which are "dubious". It views Jefferies as "entrepreneurial" with insiders owning 35%, and sees the company's growth as "very dynamic."


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  Zions Bancorp (ZION) - Upgraded at Baird to 'Outperform' from 'Neutral' with an unchanged USD 65 PT. The firm tells investors to take advantage of the selloff in the shares yesterday, sparked by Zions' regulatory filing regarding potential fraud on a USD 60mln syndicated loan. Baird said the USD 1bln decline in Zions' market cap likely reflects fears surrounding contagion risk and liquidity concerns. The firm views the magnitude of the pullback as overdone, noting the decline over a USD 50mln loss "seems a bit excessive." "Good underwriting relationships and disciplined loan growth over the past few years suggest lower credit risk from our perspective, creating a buying opportunity following today's market reaction."


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  Bitfarms (BITF) - Announced that it has priced its offering of USD 500mln aggregate principal amount of 1.375% convertible senior notes due 2031. The aggregate principal amount of the offering was increased from the previously announced offering size of USD 300mln.


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  Private Credit, High-Yield Bonds - Goldman Sachs President John Waldron warned that the USD 5tln growth in credit over the past decade — led by private credit, high-yield bonds, and leveraged loans — could have severe consequences if markets falter, highlighting risks from the rapid expansion in borrowing.


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  Bank Reserves - US bank reserves fell below USD 3tln to USD 2.99tln in the week through October 15th, down USD 45.7bln, nearly reversing the prior week’s USD 54.3bln rise, as Fed Chair Powell this week indicated QT may pause in the coming months.


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  Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.57 (exp. 0.54), Revenue 1.655bln (exp. 1.52bln); net income rose to 263mln from 184mln. Stock and options volumes climbed +67% and +27%, respectively, while customer accounts grew 32% to 4.1mln and equity rose 40% to 757.5bln.


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  JPMorgan (JPM) - In talks to lease all three towers of the Artist Square Towers development in Hong Kong’s West Kowloon, potentially marking the city’s largest office deal. The 672,000 sqft project is near the high-speed rail to mainland China, and the bank plans to relocate from its Central and Kwun Tong offices.


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  Argentina Loans - US banks including JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C) are in talks with the Treasury to provide up to USD 20bln in loans to Argentina, alongside a new USD 20bln US currency swap line, giving total support of USD 40bln, Semafor reports. The Treasury will back the programme if Argentine President Milei’s government pursues sound policies.


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  HSBC Holdings (HSBC) - Pledged no layoffs and plans to invest billions over the next few years as part of its proposed privatisation of Hong Kong subsidiary Hang Seng Bank. Investments will target customer services, technology, and the private wealth business, according to Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan.


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  HSBC Holdings (HSBC), UBS Group (UBS), BNP Paribas (BNPQY) - Global banks including UBS, HSBC, and BNP Paribas are hiring aggressively in Taiwan to capture part of the USD 8tln wealth market. Efforts focus on a newly established wealth management zone in Kaohsiung, following eased government regulations aimed at supporting growth in personal fortunes, Bloomberg reports.


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  BBVA (BBVA), Banco Sabadell (BNDSY) - BBVA’s EUR 19bln hostile bid for Banco Sabadell failed, securing only 25% of shareholder votes, below the 30% threshold required, ending the 17-month takeover attempt and marking a major setback for BBVA and Chairman Carlos Torres.

TECH

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  Oracle (ORCL) - Forecasted cloud revenue of USD 166bln and total revenue of USD 225bln by FY 2030, with adj. EPS of 21.00 (exp. 18.92). It expects AI infrastructure margins between 30-40%, and broader cloud margins of 65-80%, attempting to ease investor concerns over the profitability of its AI business. Shares rose 3% on Thursday but fell 2% in after-hours trading. Stifel reiterated its 'Buy' rating on Oracle, with a USD 350 PT, calling the outlook upbeat, but noted that FY26/27 EPS of 8.00/shr and 10.65/shr were below expectations; still, Stifel expects Oracle to consolidate its recent gains. Separately, WSJ writes that "Oracle isn't answering the hardest questions about its AI plans".


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  Micron (MU) - Will halt sales of server chips to Chinese data centres, Reuters reports, citing regulatory restrictions. The company confirmed its data centre business in China has been affected by the ban.


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  Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) - Will debut its first trifold smartphone at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea later this month. The device features two hinges, allowing it to function as a standard smartphone or a larger tablet when fully unfolded, and will be showcased at a Korean technology exhibition during the summit.


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  Apple (AAPL) - Developing its first touch-screen MacBook, reversing a long-standing policy from Steve Jobs’ era. The revamped MacBook Pro, code-named K114 and K116, is expected in late 2026 or early 2027, featuring thinner, lighter frames and powered by the M6 series of chips.


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  CoreWeave (CRWV) - Appointed Jon Jones as its first Chief Revenue Officer to lead global revenue, product scaling, and sales amid rapid growth. Jones, formerly Amazon’s (AMZN) Global Head of Startups and Venture Capital and VP of Go-to-Market, brings experience in AI innovation and cloud adoption.


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  GitLab (GTLB), Datadog (DDOG) - Datadog is reportedly exploring a renewed takeover bid for GitLab valued at over USD 60 per share, according to StreetInsider, citing a source (Note: GTLB closed +10.6% at 48.27/shr on Thursday following this report).


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  Rogers Corporation (ROG) - Board chair Peter Wallace will not seek re-election at the 2026 AGM. Armand Lauzon, a board member since 2023, has been elected as the next Chair, effective immediately. Wallace will assist in the transition, and the company will also appoint a new independent director, with input from Starboard Value.


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  Jabil (JBL) - Jabil executive chairman Mondello, along with directors Walters and Siminoff, will not seek re-election at the January 2026 annual meeting. Mondello will depart after 33 years with Jabil, including 10 as CEO; Lead Director Steve Raymund is expected to become board chairman.


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  Salesforce (CRM) - Hit with a proposed class action lawsuit by two authors who alleged Salesforce used thousands of books without permission to train its artificial intelligence software, Reuters reports.


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  AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) - Double downgraded at Barclays to 'Underweight' from 'Overweight with an unchanged USD PT of 60. Barclays argues the stock's valuation "has become excessive," citing valuation despite AST's "promising prospects" for the double downgrade.

HEALTHCARE

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  CVS Health (CVS) - Will serve as a core partner in the TrumpRx Fertility programme, providing nationwide access to fertility medications through its CVS Specialty Pharmacy and 9,000 community locations. The programme, launching January 2026, aims to cut prices of IVF drug Gonal-F by 84%, improving affordability and simplifying treatment access, said CVS SVP Lucille Accetta.


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  Regeneron's (REGN) - Libtayo has been recommended for EU approval by the CHMP for the adjuvant treatment of CSCC with a high risk of recurrence following surgery and radiation.


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  Merck KGaA (MKKGY) - US President Trump and Merck KGaA agreed to cut IVF drug prices by 84% in exchange for tariff protection, with sales to start via TrumpRX in early 2026. Merck KGaA will invest in US manufacturing, seek expedited FDA approval for Pergoveris, and all new US drugs will match prices in other developed markets.


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  Weight-Loss Drugs - Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk's (NVO) shares trade lower in extended trading after US President Trump said Ozempic prices would fall “pretty fast” to about USD 150/month (from roughly USD 1,000/month). Novo Nordisk confirmed discussions with the administration over the Most Favoured Nation order, while CMS head Mehmet Oz said price talks for GLP-1 drugs, including Ozempic, are ongoing.


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  Eli Lilly (LLY) - Announced prolonged survival in HR+, HER2-, high-risk early breast cancer with two years of treatment. Verzenio is the first contemporary therapy in over two decades to demonstrate a significant overall survival benefit in adjuvant HR+, HER2−, high-risk early breast cancer. Seven-year results from the Phase 3 monarchE trial also show Verzenio plus endocrine therapy demonstrated sustained benefits in invasive disease-free survival and distant relapse-free survival.


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  FDA Approvals - The US FDA announced expedited reviews for nine drugs under a new programme aimed at rewarding manufacturers aligning with Trump administration policy priorities. Commissioner Marty Makary confirmed the selected drugs will receive priority vouchers, marking the initiative’s first wave of approvals.


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  GRAIL (GRAL) - Expects Q3 revenue of USD 35.7-36.7mln (exp. 33.8mln), with US screening revenue at USD 32.1-33.1mln, and operating losses of USD 123.9-126.9mln. Cash and equivalents stood at ~USD 547mln. Revenue growth was driven by higher volumes, expanded provider network, partnerships, and promotions, partially offset by lower average sale price.


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  Boston Scientific (BSX) - To acquire Nalu Medical; transaction consists of an upfront payment of USD 533mln for the remaining equity


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  Roche (RHHBY) - CHMP recommended approval of Roche's Gazyva/Gazyvaro for lupus nephritis.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

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  Autos - The White House is set to ease tariffs on the US auto industry, extending a programme that lets carmakers reduce duties on imported parts from two to five years, Bloomberg reports. The move follows heavy lobbying by automakers seeking relief from record-level import tariffs.


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  Autoliv (ALV) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.32 (exp. 2.09), Revenue 2.7bln (exp. 2.7bln); sees FY25 organic sales of around 3%.


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  Ford (F) - NHTSA said Ford is recalling 291,901 US vehicles due to rear-view camera problems, and 332,778 US vehicles due to problems with the seat-belt.


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  Starbucks (SBUX) - A group of long-term Starbucks shareholders, including New York City Comptroller Brad Lander and several investment organisations, have urged Starbucks to restart negotiations with its workers' union to address staffing, wages, and other labour issues, Reuters reports.


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  BYD (BYDDY) - Will recall over 115,000 Tang series and Yuan Pro vehicles produced between 2015 and 2022 due to design defects and battery-related safety risks. The recall includes 44,535 Tang vehicles with component flaws and 71,248 Yuan Pro EVs with battery installation issues, marking the company’s largest recall to date.


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  Saks Global Enterprises - Cut FY guidance and reported a 13% sales decline to USD 1.6bln in Q2, citing inventory management challenges and strained vendor relationships. The retailer posted a USD 77mln loss (vs a USD 41mln loss Y/Y), highlighting operational and supply-chain pressures.


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  Volvo (VLVLY) Q3 2025 (SEK): Revenue 110.7bln (exp. 110.6bln), operating income 12.51bln (exp. 11.68bln); sees 2025 North American truck market 265k units (prev. saw 275k), sees 2025 European truck market of 290k (prev. 290k). Commentary: More difficult market conditions in North America and South America negatively impacted sales. Customers in North America continue to be cautious due to the weak freight market, and order intake in Europe has softened.

COMMUNICATIONS

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  Meta Platforms (META), Morgan Stanley (MS) - Meta Platforms and Blue Owl Capital are finalising a near USD 30bln financing package for the Hyperion data centre in Louisiana. Meta will retain 20% ownership, with the remainder held by Blue Owl. Morgan Stanley arranged over USD 27bln in debt and USD 2.5bln in equity financing via a special purpose vehicle.


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  Alphabet (GOOG), TeraWulf (WULF) - Alphabet-owned Google is providing a “backstop” for TeraWulf’s USD 3.2bln data centre debt deal, sparking investor demand above USD 10bln. The financing, tied to AI infrastructure, is rated Ba2/BB by Moody’s and Fitch, marking it at the high end of junk status and highlighting innovative approaches to AI-linked project funding.


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  Nintendo (NTDOY) - Asked suppliers to produce up to 25mln Switch 2 units by March 2026, targeting record first-year console sales, Bloomberg reports. Production began late 2024, with output levels to be adjusted based on holiday demand and early-year trends.

CONSUMER STAPLES

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  Coca-Cola (KO) - Considering an IPO of its Indian bottling unit, Hindustan Coca-Cola Beverages, potentially raising USD 1bln and valuing the unit at around USD 10bln, Bloomberg reports. The company has held preliminary talks with bankers but has not yet formally hired advisors, with the process still in its early stages.


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  Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) - Said to be offering free deferred pricing for soybean deliveries to a facility in Illinois, according to Reuters, citing sources.


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  Beef Prices - President Trump announced that his administration reached an agreement to lower beef prices for consumers, though he did not provide specific details on the measures involved, noting that previous anti-inflation efforts in the sector had been insufficient.

INDUSTRIALS

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  CSX Corp (CSX) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.44 (exp. 0.43), Revenue 3.59bln (exp. 3.58bln); volume rose 1% Y/Y and 2% sequentially. Lower coal prices and weaker merchandise volumes modestly reduced revenue, but overall earnings reflected resilient cost control and solid network efficiency. The CEO said operations remain strong, positioning the company for continued profitable growth and shareholder value creation.


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  Intuitive Machines (LUNR) - Upgraded at Deutsche Bank to 'Buy' from 'Hold with a USD 18 PT (prev. 6). The firm sees an "attractive" set-up for the next three to six months, supported by "clear commercial catalysts" for what it calls a "secular winner in the space exploration market." The stock trades at a "considerable" discount to "new space" peers Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Firefly (FLY), says Deutsche, who thinks the gap can compress should Intuitive win some major contracts.

ENERGY

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  EQT Corporation (EQT) - Raised its quarterly dividend by 5% to USD 0.165/shr.


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  SLB (SLB) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.69 (exp. 0.66), Revenue 8.93bln (exp. 8.90bln), adj. EBITDA 2.06bln (exp. 2.06bln).


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  NextDecade (NEXT) - Said it had reached a positive final investment decision on the fifth liquefaction plant, known as a train, of its Rio Grande export project in Texas, Reuters reports.

MATERIALS

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  Gold - HSBC forecasts gold could hit USD 5000/oz in 2026; raised average gold price forecast to USD 4600/oz (prev. USD 3950/oz).

TRADE

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  US Deficit - The US budget deficit for FY25 fell to USD 1.78tln (-2% Y/Y), as record-high tariff revenue helped offset borrowing, though the overall pace of borrowing remains elevated amid economic expansion and financial stability, Treasury Department data cited by Bloomberg showed.


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  Auto Tariffs - The White House is set to ease tariffs on the US auto industry, extending a programme that lets carmakers reduce duties on imported parts from two to five years, Bloomberg reports. The move follows heavy lobbying by automakers seeking relief from record-level import tariffs.


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  US-China - China’s Commerce Minister Wang blamed the US for recent trade tensions, citing “intensive” restrictive measures following last month’s Madrid talks. Wang warned against decoupling and highlighted US actions as the main driver of fluctuations in China-US economic and trade relations.


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  USMCA, Stellantis (STLA) - Canadian PM Carney said Stellantis will finalise decisions on future vehicle production at its Ontario plant after a review of the USMCA trade deal. The Jeep Compass will instead be produced in Illinois, avoiding US tariffs, following discussions with CEO Antonio Filosa.


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  US-South Korea - South Korea is in intensive talks with the US to finalise its USD 350bln investment pledge, including a potential currency swap line to shield against financial instability. Senior officials, including presidential policy chief Kim Yong-beom and Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo, are in Washington ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.


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  US-Australia, Rare Earths - Australia will highlight its rare earths production capabilities in upcoming talks with the US, aiming to support Washington’s strategy to diversify supply chains away from China. Treasurer Chalmers emphasised Australia’s reliability as a supplier of critical minerals to the US and other global markets.

MACRO

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  US Government Shutdown - Trump administration layoffs amid the shutdown have cut 400–600 Commerce Department staff, jeopardising AI initiatives tied to the White House’s action plan, Axios reports. Agencies, including NIST, BIS, and USPTO, were hit, with sources warning the cuts may become permanent and hinder progress on AI standards and export controls.


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  Japan Politics - Japan’s opposition party Ishin sees a 50-50 chance of forming a coalition with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party ahead of a parliamentary vote on leadership, co-leader Hirofumi Yoshimura said, as talks continue to determine the nation’s political direction.


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  BoJ - Governor Ueda signalled that the BoJ may raise interest rates if confidence in meeting its economic outlook strengthens, maintaining the stance of gradually normalising policy through rate hikes and balance-sheet adjustments.

GEOPOLITICS

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  US-Hamas - US President Donald Trump warned that if Hamas continues killings in Gaza, violating the ceasefire he brokered with Israel, the US will have “no choice but to go in and kill them.”


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  Russia Energy - A shipment of Russian liquefied natural gas from the blacklisted Arctic LNG 2 plant arrived at China’s Beihai LNG terminal, marking the first delivery since the UK sanctioned the facility, Bloomberg reports. The move highlights China’s continued demand for Russian energy despite Western sanctions aimed at curbing such imports.


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  US Southern Command - Navy Admiral Alvin Holsey, commander of US Southern Command, will retire in December, leaving a key Pentagon post amid ongoing military operations against suspected narco-traffickers in the region. Holsey assumed the role last November, and neither he nor Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth provided a reason for his departure.

17 Oct 2025 - 13:50- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk