Daily US Equity Opening News - DELL removes US discounts; TSLA expanding into Saudi Arabia; STZ lower after earnings

TODAY'S AGENDA:

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  US INDEX FUTURES: ES -2.1%, NQ -2.6%, YM -1.6%, RTY -3.5%.


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  DAY AHEAD: Today's speaker's slate includes: Fed's Bowman (voter) has a Senate nomination hearing after she was nominated to be Vice Chair for Supervision; Logan (2026 voter), Schmid, Goolsbee (2025 voter), and Harker (2026 voter) are also due. Elsewhere, SNB's Tschudin and Moser, BoE's Breeden and RBA's Bullock will deliver remarks. In supply, the US will sell USD 22bln of 30yr bonds, and the Treasury will announce auction sizes for next week's 20yr bond and 5yr TIPS issuance.


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  BROKER MOVES: DHR upgraded at Barclays; CBOE downgraded at BofA. For the full list, please click here.
  


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  MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: Mag-7, NVDA, TSLA, TSM, DELL, STZ, WMT, X. To see the full list, please click here.
  


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  DAILY US CONFERENCE CALENDAR To view the calendar, please click here.
  

TARIFFS

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  US Tariffs - US President Trump raised tariffs on China to 125% from 104%, but authorised a 90-day pause for 75 countries seeking talks, lowering reciprocal tariffs to 10% during this period. He suggested that China wants a deal but is unsure how to proceed, and stated a deal could be reached with all parties, including the EU. Trump emphasised flexibility with tariffs and noted that sectoral tariffs still remain in play. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that non-retaliating countries would be rewarded, and the pause was to allow time for negotiations. No changes were made to tariffs on Canada and Mexico, with the 25% levy on non-USMCA trade remaining. EU retaliation tariffs may be delayed, and the EU is reportedly considering purchasing more US gas. Trump’s advisor Navarro said trade talks would progress swiftly, with each deal tailored.


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  US-China - Chinese state media has suggested that the PBoC may soon ease monetary policy by cutting interest rates and banks' reserve requirements to support the economy amid rising trade tensions with the US; the move would be aimed at countering the economic impact of soaring US tariffs. Elsewhere, China's Commerce Minister expressed willingness to resolve differences with the US via negotiations but warned that China would resist if the US insisted on its own way. He criticised US reciprocal tariffs as a serious infringement on global interests. In talks with EU trade chief Sefcovic, he highlighted China's readiness to deepen trade and investment ties with the EU and address trade frictions, including trade transfer issues. Chinese leaders are to set meet on stimulus following President Trump's tariff shock.


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  US-EU - The EU is considering increasing its purchase of US LNG to ease tensions with President Trump over tariffs. While prioritising its green energy goals, the bloc is also open to expanding LNG imports, provided these align with its environmental transition. The US is already the EU's largest LNG supplier, and this move follows Trump's suggestion for the EU to buy USD 350bln of US energy.


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  Sell-Side Calls - Citi said the tariff pause ex-China doesn't signal the US has avoided a growth slowdown; effective tariff rates have risen ~21ppts YTD, with trade uncertainty likely to persist; Citi added that non-China imports may surge, dampening Q2 growth. Citi still expects Fed rate cuts in May or June. Raymond James views the 90-day pause in non-China tariffs as a near-term positive but warned that persistent uncertainty from the 10% global tariff, 125% China tariff, and sector-specific measures may weigh on corporates amid Trump’s reshoring agenda; RJ sees the 10% tariff as key to funding a potential USD 5tln tax package. Evercore ISI maintained a 35-40% probability of a US recession despite a partial retreat on tariffs; it forecasts tariffs peaking at 25% before dropping to 15-17% by Q1; while shifting imports from China to countries like Vietnam may reduce Q4 inflation slightly, 13% of US imports are from China, and are hard to replace, it added.


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  Pharma Tariffs - President Trump reiterated that he plans major tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, ending long-standing exemptions and alarming buyers reliant on low-cost imports from India, China, and Europe. Indian and EU drugmakers warn of price hikes and supply disruptions, while US generics, especially, may face production challenges due to low margins and limited relocation viability, reports suggest.


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  Retailers - Many US companies rushed in goods to avoid President Trump's threatened tariffs that imports soared to near-record levels in recent weeks. Now, retailers and other importers are hitting the brakes, awaiting clarity on where the new duties will land. US import bookings on massive container ships dropped 64% from March 24-31 to April 1-8, the week when Trump announced "reciprocal" tariffs on a swath of countries, container-tracking software provider Vizion said.

MACRO

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  Stock Dip - Citigroup’s global wealth head Andy Sieg advised clients to avoid chasing market rallies and buying the dip amid ongoing volatility. Despite the potential end of the “peak shock,” he emphasised the importance of discipline and caution, stating now is not the time to increase exposure to risky assets.


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  US Fiscal - Republican leaders delayed a vote on President Trump's budget plan due to resistance from hard-right conservatives. The holdouts argue the plan, which includes tax cuts, lacks sufficient spending cuts. The delay creates uncertainty in the GOP's legislative agenda as they seek a path forward on tax and spending issues.


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  US Economy - Despite a 90-day tariff reprieve boosting stock markets, corporate leaders are bracing for a recession, Bloomberg reports, noting that CEOs from Cos. like Delta Air Lines (DAL) and Walmart (WMT) are facing uncertainty, with rising pessimism affecting demand. JPMorgan's (JPM) Jamie Dimon Tuesday also warned of increasing defaults, while automakers are offering discounts or holding prices steady to attract cautious consumers. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs' economists revised their US recession forecast after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs; they had initially expected a recession due to new country-specific tariffs but reverted to their prior non-recession forecast. Analysts still anticipate policy uncertainty could cause a sharp economic slowdown this year.


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  US-China - US Defense Secretary Hegseth said the US aims to end China's influence over the Panama Canal as part of efforts to strengthen the Americas. During a visit to Panama City, Hegseth avoided addressing whether the US acknowledges Panama’s sovereignty over the canal, a subject President Trump has expressed interest in “taking back,” potentially using force.


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  Redfin - Reported that homebuyer demand improved last week, but tariff turmoil, rising rates, and economic jitters likely to hamper sales

TECH

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  Nvidia (NVDA) - Following a Mar-a-Lago dinner, the Trump administration paused plans for stricter curbs on Nvidia's H20 chip, crucial for AI development in China, CNBC reports. In return, Nvidia pledged new US investments in AI data centres. The reversal followed growing political pressure for tighter controls, despite fears China could stockpile chips before potential restrictions.


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  Apple (AAPL) - Chartered cargo flights to ferry as many as 1.5mln iPhones from India to the US in an effort to beat President Donald Trump's tariffs, according to Reuters citing sources.


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  Alphabet (GOOG) - Google is partnering with the largest electrical grid operator in North America, PJM Interconnection, to roll out AI technologies aimed at getting new power supplies connected faster.


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  TSMC (TSM) - The world’s largest contract chipmaker reported Q1 revenue rose +42% to TWD 839.25bln (exp. 835.66bln), driven by strong demand for AI servers and smartphones ahead of anticipated US tariffs. It marks TSMC's fastest growth since 2022, with electronics manufacturers stockpiling goods in US warehouses to mitigate potential trade disruptions.


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  STMicroelectronics (STM) - Told the Italian government and unions that no plant in Italy or worldwide will be shut down, according to a slide show. All planned investments at the Agrate and Catania facilities are confirmed. Meanwhile, announced a company-wide programme to reshape the manufacturing footprint and resize the global cost base; Crolles 300MM fab will be the core part of digital products ecosystem; Toours to remain focussed on 200MM silicon production. Will see 2,800 people leave the co. globally on a voluntary basis over 3 years, on top of normal attrition.


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  OpenAI - Accused Elon Musk of a year-long campaign to harm the company, urging a court to intervene. The startup claims Musk has used legal threats, social media, and press attacks to undermine OpenAI’s success, in order to benefit his own AI venture, xAI.


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  AI Data Centres - The IEA warned that the growth of AI-focused data centres will significantly increase demand for coal and gas-fired power plants. By 2030, power demand from these centres is expected to double. While renewable energy will expand, intermittent sources like wind and solar will not meet the demand, necessitating baseload generation from gas plants.


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  Intel (INTC) - CEO reportedly invested in hundreds of Chinese firms over the decades, according to Chinese and US filings cited by Reuters; invested in firms with connections to the Chinese military.


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  Dell Technologies (DELL) - Reduced or removed US discounts on many of its computers, reflecting the impact of fluctuating tariff policies, Bloomberg reports.


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  Microsoft (MSFT) - The Xbox Games Showcase 2025 will stream on June 8th at 6 pm UK time, followed by 'The Outer Worlds 2' direct. The event will feature upcoming games, developer insights, and global broadcasts in over 40 languages, with extended coverage continuing throughout the week on Xbox Wire and related platforms.


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  Fabrinet (FN) - Files to sell 381,922 ordinary shares for holders.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

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  Amazon (AMZN) - The Shenzhen E-commerce Association, representing over 3,000 Amazon sellers, stated that US tariffs are severely impacting survival in the US market. Some sellers are shifting to new markets, while others continue shipping. It warned the tariffs could cause the collapse of small businesses and accelerate unemployment in China. Separately, the CEO said they know customers care about selection and price and will do everything they can to offset tariffs; done some strategic forward inventory buys, via CNBC; Too early to see change in consumer behaviour; Do think that it's possible the environment will be a little bit easier to start to acquire.


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  Tesla (TSLA) - Expanding into Saudi Arabia, signalling the resolution of a previous feud between CEO Musk and the Kingdom’s leadership. At a launch event in Riyadh, Tesla will display its model lineup, along with prototypes of the Cybercab and humanoid robot Optimus. Details about the company's broader plans are scarce, but at least one showroom is under construction, Bloomberg reports.


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  Capri Holdings (CPRI) - Prada (1913 HK) has struck a USD 1.4bln deal for Capri's Versace, according to WSJ.


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  Nissan (NSANY) - Partnered with SoftBank (SFTBY)-backed Wayve Technologies to integrate the latter's AI driving system into its ProPilot driver-assist technology, expected to appear in vehicles in approximately two years.


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  Harley-Davidson (HOG) - Director Jared Dourdeville resigned, citing concerns over the Cos. leadership, particularly CEO Jochen Zeitz. Dourdeville, representing the second-largest shareholder, criticised decisions that he believes have harmed the brand, including a widespread work-from-home policy and the departure of senior leaders, leading to "cultural depletion."


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  Nestle SA (NSRGY) - May be forced to stop marketing Perrier as a mineral water after admitting it used filtration methods deemed illegal for natural mineral waters. The French government's hydrogeologists issued an unfavourable opinion on the practice, prompting the company to launch an audit of its filtration methods.


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  MSG Entertainment (MSGE) - Appointed David Collins as EVP and CFO, effective April 14th. He was previously CFO and EVP at Harris Blitzer Sports and Entertainment.

CONSUMER STAPLES

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  Constellation Brands (STZ) - Shares fell in extended trading after it lowered its FY26 profit forecast, citing the impact of new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on its beer and spirits business, and after it sold several wine brands to The Wine Group. Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 2.63 (exp. 2.26), Revenue 2.16bln (exp. 2.13bln). Comparable operating profit +4.4% Y/Y to 659mln (exp. 637.7mln). Wine & Spirits operating income -10% Y/Y to 99.7mln (exp. 91.6mln), while wine & spirits net sales 459.8mln (exp. 408.7mln). Constellation will divest its mainstream wine brands, vineyards, and facilities to The Wine Group, including Woodbridge, Meiomi, and Robert Mondavi Private Selection; The deal is expected to close by FY26-end and aims to streamline its wine portfolio, achieving cost savings of over USD 200mln by FY28. Sees EPS growth for FY28 of the low-single-digit to mid-single digits; guidance assumptions reflect the anticipated impact of tariffs announced by the US on April 2nd, and Canada on March 4th.


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  PriceSmart (PSMT) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 1.45 (vs. 1.31 Y/Y), Revenue 1.36bln (vs. 1.29bln Y/Y); adj. EBITDA 87.0mln (vs. 84.1mln Y/Y).


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  Walmart (WMT) - Reaffirmed its goal for International GMV to reach USD 200bln by 2028, with strong FY growth in net sales (+9.1%) and operating income (+17%). Sam’s Club membership hit record highs, with over half of new members from Gen Z or Millennials. Walmart US has added USD 121bln in sales over the last five years.


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  P&G (PG) - Was targeted by EU antitrust watchdog alongside Coca-Cola (KO) raids, according to Bloomberg. Procter & Gamble was the unidentified target of an informal antitrust probe by EU watchdogs, BBGT reports citing sources. Regulators suspect it may have illegally segmented product sales in the bloc to prevent products moving freely from one country to another at lower prices. As well as firing off a list of questions to P&G, EU officials have also sought evidence from rivals and customers.


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  Costco (COST) - Net sales for the first 31 weeks were USD 158.87bln (+8.3 Y/Y); Comp. sales (ex-gasoline/FX) for the four weeks through April 6th: US +8.7% (prev. +8.6 in Feb), Canada +10.6% (prev. +3.2%), international +9.9% (prev. -0.6%), Total +9.1% (prev. 6.5%).

ENERGY

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  US LNG - The EU is considering increasing its purchase of US LNG to ease tensions with President Trump over tariffs. While prioritising its green energy goals, the bloc is also open to expanding LNG imports, provided these align with its environmental transition. The US is already the EU's largest LNG supplier, and this move follows Trump's suggestion for the EU to buy USD 350bln of US energy.


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  US Big Oil - President Trump signed an executive order directing DoJ to challenge state laws that fine fossil fuel companies for greenhouse gas emissions. The order tasks the US AG with identifying state regulations that could hinder domestic oil and gas use, and prioritising actions against state-level climate change and environmental justice efforts.


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  Occidental (OXY) - Reported higher Q1 prices for oil and gas production compared to the previous quarter; Q1 unhedged worldwide oil price realisation of USD 71.07/bbl and a worldwide natural gas price realisation of USD 2.30/MMBtu.


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  Energy Transfer (ET) - Subsidiary 'Energy Transfer LNG Export' has entered a non-binding agreement with MidOcean to jointly develop the Lake Charles LNG project. MidOcean will fund 30% of construction costs and receive 30% of LNG production. The project will leverage existing infrastructure and connections to major US gas basins.


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  Schlumberger (SLB) - UK CMA, on the Schlumberger and ChampionX merger, said it will consider undertakings offered and decide whether to accept them by June 11th

FINANCIALS

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  SEC - Paul Atkins was confirmed as the new chair of the US SEC with a 52-44 Senate vote. He is expected to scale back regulations, reduce corporate disclosures, and make SEC rules more favourable to cryptocurrency companies. Atkins will also need to address market volatility caused by recent trade tariffs.


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  Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) - NetJets, the private jet company owned by Berkshire Hathaway, is investigating a data breach after a hacker accessed client information. The attacker used phishing to steal an employee's account credentials and subsequently accessed more data from NetJets' systems last month. The breach involved multiple clients, and the hacker attempted to extort the Co.


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  UBS (UBS) - Chairman Colm Kelleher reiterated the Swiss bank's intention to repurchase shares to the tune of USD 3bln in 2025.


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  Citigroup (C) - Plans to establish a pipeline for debt-for-development swaps, helping sovereign issuers in EMs refinance debt while reallocating savings to broader goals. The market for such swaps is growing.


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  AllianceBernstein (AB) - Reported March-end AUM USD 784bln (-2.6% vs USD 805bln in February), as market depreciation offset net inflows. For Q1 2025, preliminary net inflows totalled USD 2.3bln.


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  Invesco (IVZ) - Reported preliminary March-end AUM USD 1.84tln (-2.3% vs February). It saw USD 6.5bln in net long-term inflows, USD 1.7bln in non-fee earning outflows, and USD 5.8bln in money market inflows.


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  Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) - Downgraded to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' at BofA, who cited the YTD outperformance of the stock, a higher relative valuation, a better ownership setup and the potential for volume decelerations in the second half.

INDUSTRIALS

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  US Defence Spending - President Trump signed an executive order to review all major Pentagon defence acquisition programmes. The review will focus on programmes more than 15% behind schedule or over budget, with a potential for cancellation. The order prioritises speed, flexibility, and execution in line with the administration's policy goals.


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  CATL (300750 CH) - The world's largest EV battery maker plans to proceed with its Hong Kong listing this quarter, aiming to raise up to USD 5bln, despite market uncertainty following recent US-China tariff tensions, SCMP reports.


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  MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) - Director Mitchell Jacobson purchased 159.2K shares, as part of an option exercise on April 7th, for a total USD 11.1mln.

MATERIALS

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  US Steel (X), Nippon Steel (NPSCY) - US Steel's shares dropped as much as 16% in after-hours trading following US President Trump's statement opposing the steelmaker's acquisition by a Japanese company. Trump highlighted the rising steel orders at US Steel as evidence it doesn’t need investment, asserting he does not want it to be bought by foreign entities.


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  Givaudan (GVDNY) - Reported sales increased 8.5% Y/Y in Q1 but warned of rising prices due to growing costs and tariffs, which will be passed on to customers.

COMMUNICATIONS

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  Nintendo (NTDOY) - The pause on heightened US tariffs gives Nintendo crucial time to prepare for the June 5th launch of its Switch 2 console. With a significant portion of Switch 2 units assembled in Vietnam, the tariff reprieve lowers the expected levy from 46% to 10%, allowing Nintendo to focus on ramping up US shipments and maximising stock availability, BBG reports.


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  Newsmax (NMAX) - A Delaware judge ruled Newsmax defamed Dominion Voting Systems with false claims about the 2020 US election. Dominion seeks USD 1.6bln in damages, to be decided by a jury trial later this month.

HEALTHCARE

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  Danaher Corporation (DHR) - Upgraded to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' at Barclays. The bank said Danaher's valuation is still expensive, but not as offensive as it was six months ago for the growth expected; thinks Danaher's diagnostics stability and the bioprocessing momentum is enough to offset any life science weakness.


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  Keros Therapeutics - Said its board has authorized a poison pill defence in response to some investors who have indicated "a desire to influence the control" of the company.

UTILITIES

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  GE Vernova (GEV) - Iraq signed non-binding agreements with two US companies to add 27 gigawatts to its power generation capacity. The MOU with GE Vernova involves constructing combined-cycle gas power plants with a capacity of approximately 24 gigawatts, aiming to meet rising electricity demand.

RECAP

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  RECAP - CHINA CPI - China's CPI fell 0.1% Y/Y (exp. 0.0%; prev. -0.7%) in March compared to a year earlier, showing continued disinflationary pressures. This marks a slight improvement from February, highlighting persistent weakness in consumer prices and adding pressure on Beijing to stimulate consumption amid rising US tariffs. Capital Economics said "while policymakers have signalled a willingness to do more to support domestic demand, a lot of fiscal spending is still being devoted to expanding the supply side of the economy and it seems unlikely that consumption support will be sufficient to fully offset weaker exports," adding that "as such, overcapacity looks set to worsen, exacerbating downward pressure on prices."

10 Apr 2025 - 13:48- Fixed IncomeData- Source: Newsquawk