Daily US Equity Opening News - ADSK, AFRM, ESTC rise post-earnings; ULTA, DELL, MRVL fall post-earnings

TODAY'S AGENDA:

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  US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.3%, NQ -0.4%, YM -0.3%, RUT -0.2%


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  DAY AHEAD: The final University of Michigan sentiment data for August (headline seen unrevised) and Chicago PMI are due. Atlanta Fed will update its Q3 tracking estimate after today's data (currently running at 2.2%). In energy, Baker Hughes will release its weekly rig count data in the afternoon. On today's CRA slate, potential reviews are due from Moodyʼs on the Netherlands (currently Aaa), DBRS on the Netherlands (AAA), and S&P on Portugal (A). Traders will also be keeping an eye on the situation surrounding Fed Governor Cook; a hearing is set for Friday at 10:00EDT/15:00BST in Cook’s lawsuit against President Trump, who sought to remove her from the Fed Board; Cook has requested a temporary order declaring Trump’s action unlawful and barring the Fed from taking steps to oust her.


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  BROKER MOVES: DLTR upgraded at Telsey; MRVL downgraded at BofA. For the full list, click here.
  


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  MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: ADSK, DELL, BABA, MRVL, ESTC, AFRM, CAT, ULTA, GAP, CELH, AMBA, DLTR. For the full list, click here.
  

MACRO

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  Fedspeak - Fed Governor Waller (voter) supports a 25bps rate cut in September, and expects further reductions over the next three to six months; Waller cited inflation near 2%, anchored long-term expectations, and rising risks of labour market weakening as reasons for prompt policy easing.

EQUITY NEWS:

TECH

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  NVIDIA (NVDA) - Will face trial over allegations that an engineer disclosed autonomous driving trade secrets allegedly stolen from a former European employer, BBG reports. A California federal judge ruled there is sufficient circumstantial evidence that NVIDIA benefited from the confidential data, allowing the case to proceed to a jury. Separately, DigiTimes reports that NVIDIA plans to launch Quantum-X and Spectrum-X optical networking solutions in 2026 to handle massive data flows in AI GPU clusters; it aims to replace legacy copper-based interconnects, which struggle with low-latency, high-bandwidth demands, enabling faster AI data centre performance.


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  Autodesk (ADSK) Q2 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.62 (exp. 2.46), Revenue 1.76bln (exp. 1.73bln). The CEO highlighted progress in generative AI, with industry-specific foundation models, while the CFO noted Q2 strength in AECO from data centres, infrastructure, and industrial projects offsetting commercial softness. Stronger Autodesk Store, billings linearity, and FX tailwinds led to raised full-year guidance despite unchanged macro assumptions. Outlook: Q3 Adj. EPS 2.48-2.51 (exp. 2.40), Q3 revenue 1.80bln-1.81bln (exp. 1.77bln), FY adj. EPS 9.80-9.98 (exp. 9.63), FY revenue 7.03bln-7.08bln (exp. 6.98bln).


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  Dell Technologies (DELL) - Despite a Q2 beat and raised FY guidance, Dell's shares fell in extended trading, with desks citing weaker ISG margins, raising some concerns over long-term AI server profitability. Q2 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.32 (exp. 2.29), Revenue 29.8bln (exp. 29.19bln). Outlook: Q3 EPS ~2.45 (exp. 2.55), Q3 revenue 26.5-27.5bln (exp. 26.31bln), raises FY26 EPS outlook to ~9.55 (exp. 9.37) and FY revenue view to 105-109bln (exp. 104.84bln, prev. 101-105bln); also lifted FY25 AI server shipment view to 20bln from 15bln.


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  Marvell (MRVL) - Marvell slumps in premarket as earnings met expectations, but guidance disappointed, and its data centre revenue rose less than expected. Q2 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.67 (exp. 0.67), Revenue 2.01bln (exp. 2.01bln), gross margin 50.4%; adj. gross margin 59.4%. The CEO highlighted strong AI demand for custom silicon and electro-optics, with over 50 new AI design opportunities. Outlook: Q3 data centre revenue flat sequentially, Q3 adj. EPS 0.69-0.79 (exp. 0.72), Q3 revenue 2.06bln +/-5% (exp. 2.1bln), Q3 adj. gross margin 59.5-60%. After the report, MRVL was downgraded at BofA to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' with a USD 78 PT (prev. 90). The firm did not hear the same level of confidence and visibility about Marvell's AI growth prospects in the near-to-medium term and suspects incrementally higher uncertainty around both the timing of Marvell's new Microsoft (MSFT) Maia project and share in next-gen 3nm Amazon (AMZN) project.


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  Affirm (AFRM) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.20 (exp. 0.10), Revenue 876mln (exp. 838mln). Outlook: Q1 revenue 855-885mln (exp. 858.4mln), Q1 GMV 10.1-10.4bln. Outlook: FY EPS 23.85-24.30 (exp. 23.31), FY revenue 12.0-12.1bln (exp. 11.67bln).


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  Elastic (ESTC) Q1 2026 (USD): EPS 0.60 (exp. 0.42), Revenue 415mln (exp. 397.3mln), Net expansion rate 112%; subscription revenue up 20% Y/Y at 389mln. The CEO highlighted strong AI-driven demand, adding Gen AI use cases with over 2,200 Elastic Cloud customers. Outlook: Q2 EPS 0.56-0.58 (exp. 0.60), Q2 revenue 415-417mln (exp. 411mln); for the FY26, sees EPS EPS at 2.29-2.35 (exp. 2.28), and FY26 revenue at 1.679-1.689bln (exp. 1.67bln).


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  SentinelOne (S) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS -0.22 (exp. 0.19), Revenue 242.2mln (exp. 242.2mln). CEO highlighted ARR growth of +24% to 1.0bln, with 1,513 customers at ARR of above 100,000. Outlook: Q3 revenue 256mln (exp. 255.4mln). FY26 revenue expected to be 998mln-1.002bln, noting strong AI-powered platform adoption and continued growth.


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  TSMC (TSM) - Reportedly plans major supply chain overhaul, targeting high-margin and China-exposed suppliers, according to DigiTimes Asia.


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  Lam Research (LRCX) - Raised quarterly dividend +13% to 0.26/shr.


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  CoreWeave (CRWV) - Chief Development Officer Brannin McBee sold 625K shares on August 26th, for a total USD 57.5mln. Separately, the CEO told CNBC that ARR is a forward-looking measure of business health, noting the company accelerated net new ARR this quarter; he also highlighted CrowdStrike’s high customer retention, stating that if customers use the technology, there is a 95% chance of renewal.


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  Super Micro Computer (SMCI) - Flagged weaknesses in financial disclosure controls that could impede timely and accurate reporting, Bloomberg reports. The server maker noted issues as of June 30th in its SEC annual filing. The company previously missed its August 2024 filing, prompting auditor Ernst & Young to resign over governance and transparency concerns, before statements were later filed.


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  Cognizant (CTSH) - To deploy 1,000 contract engineers over the next year, to enable AI agents to reason, act, and adapt in alignment with enterprise goals.


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  Bain (BCSF) - Bain Capital's Chinadata, which owns China data centres, has garnered interest from local bidders looking to expand into the AI sector, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. No final decision has yet been made, and the transaction could value Chinadata's China business at ~USD 4.2bln.


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  Ambarella (AMBA) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 0.15 (exp. 0.05), Revenue 95.51mln (exp. 90mln); sees Q3 revenue at 100-108mln (exp. 91mln) and raised FY26 revenue view to 379mln (exp. 348mln, prev. 348mln).


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  TaskUs (TASK) - Institutional Shareholder Services on Thursday urged TaskUs investors to reject a plan proposed by investment firm Blackstone and TaskUs' co-founders to take the outsourcing company that handles content moderation private for USD 16.50/shr, Reuters reports. ISS added that two of the shareholders, Murchison and Think Investments, have argued that the offer is below fair value.


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  SoftBank Group (SFTBY) - Masayoshi Son increased his joint stake in SoftBank to 33.74% (from 29.01%), according to a filing.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

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  Tesla (TSLA) - A survey by EV Intelligence found Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system may deter buyers, CNBC reports. Of 8,000 Americans surveyed, 14% said FSD would make them more likely to buy a Tesla, while 35% said it would make them less likely. 70% prefer autonomous vehicles to use both LiDAR and cameras; only 3% support Tesla’s camera-only approach. Separately, CEO Musk urged a federal judge to dismiss a US SEC lawsuit over his growing stake in Twitter in 2022, calling allegations that he cheated investors government overreach, Bloomberg reported.


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  Alibaba (BABA) Q1 2025 (USD): Revenue 34.6bln (exp. 34.3bln), EPS 2.06 (exp. 2.13); noted new highs in monthly active customers and daily order volume; to increase cloud adoption for AI. In CNY: Revenue 247.65bln (exp. 253.17bln). Said it has developed a new, more versatile chip amid a struggle in Chinese companies after NVIDIA's regulatory bans, WSJ reports. Commentary: In August, monthly active consumers on quick commerce business are approaching 300mln, in a conference call; commerce consumers are contributing to a 25% increase in monthly active consumers on the Taobao app. Cumulative investment exceeds CNY 100bln in AI infrastructure and R&D. Expects Taobao instant commerce and quick commerce to add RMB 1tln in annualised incremental GMV within the next three years.


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  Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 5.78 (exp. 5.04), Revenue 2.79bln (exp. 2.67bln), SSS +6.7%. Outlook: Raised FY25 EPS outlook to 23.85-24.30 (exp. 23.59), lifted FY revenue outlook to 12.0-12.1bln (exp. 11.72bln), and FY SSS view to +2.5%-3.5% (prev. 0.0-1.5%).


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  Gap (GAP) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 0.57 (exp. 0.55), Revenue 3.73bln (exp. 3.73bln). SSS +1% (exp. 1.9%); Old Navy +2%, Gap +4%, Banana Republic +4%, Athleta -9%. Gross margin 41.2% (exp. 41.9%). Outlook: Q3 revenue growth +1.5%-2.5% (exp. 3.91bln), FY25 revenue growth +1%-2% (exp. 15.33bln), cut FY operating margin outlook to 6.7-7.0% (prev. 7.4%) on tariff costs, FY CapEx 500-550mln, and sees around 35 net store closures.


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  Petco (WOOF) Q2 2025 (USD): EPS 0.05 (exp. 0.02), Revenue 1.5bln (exp. 1.49bln). The CEO noted progress on transformation, improved retail fundamentals, and a stronger economic model. Outlook: Q3 revenue down low single digits, Q3 adj. EBITDA 92-94mln, FY25 revenue down low single digits (exp. 6.0bln), adj. EBITDA 385-395mln, CapEx 125-130mln, and around 25 store closures.


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  Ford (F) - Told labour groups of plans to cut more than 470 jobs at two plants in South Africa, the Silverton assembly plant in Pretoria and the Struandale engine plant in Gqeberha, according to Bloomberg, citing an emailed statement from labour union Solidarity.


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  Honda (HMC) - Plans to relocate its global head office by the end of 2029 to high-rise floors in a new mixed-use building near Tokyo Station as part of the Yaesu District Redevelopment Project, and will partially transfer ownership of its current Aoyama head office building to Mitsui Fudosan Residential.


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  Nissan (NSANY) - Japan’s Industry Ministry will provide financing aid to enterprises affected by Nissan’s Oppama Plant closure, supporting suppliers and related businesses impacted by the shutdown.


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  BYD Auto (BYDDY) H1 (CNY) Net Income 15.51bln, +14% Y/Y, Revenue 371.3bln (prev. 301.1bln Y/Y); Gross Margin 18% (prev. 20% Y/Y). Meanwhile, BYD shipped over 900 electric vehicles from its Thailand plant to Europe, overcoming previous tariff restrictions, DigiTimes reports. The move highlights the company’s aggressive overseas expansion strategy and its ability to navigate trade barriers while growing its European EV market presence, the report adds.

INDUSTRIALS

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  CATL (300750 CS) - Shares of Chinese battery maker CATL surged to a three-year high in APAC trade after supplier Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment signalled a strong sales outlook and anticipated intensive capacity expansion among key clients. CATL’s Shenzhen-listed shares rose up to 14%, while Wuxi Lead shares advanced 20% on the positive outlook.


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  Caterpillar (CAT) - Expects a USD 1.5-1.8bln tariff impact in 2025, including USD 500-600mln in Q3, and guided FY adj. operating profit margin to the bottom of its target range.


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  Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC), Spirit Aviation Holdings (FLYY) - Spirit has held high-level talks with Frontier Group Holdings as it explores strategic options less than six months after emerging from bankruptcy, Bloomberg reports.


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  JetBlue Airways (JBLU) - Considering legal action against Portugal after claiming US carriers have been denied access to Lisbon airport. According to an August 28th filing, JetBlue says its requests for airport slots have been “repeatedly” rejected since 2023.


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  RTX (RTX) - Awarded a USD 1.7bln Army modification contract to support low-rate initial production of Lower Tier Air and Missile Defence Systems, raising the contract’s total face value to USD 3.79bln.


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  BAE Systems (BAESY) - Awarded a USD 1.74bln Navy contract to produce and deliver up to 55,000 Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II Full Rate Production Lots 13-17, supporting semi-active laser guided upgrades to the 2.75-inch Rocket System for the Navy, Army, and FMS customers.


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  AAR Corp. (AIR) - Signed a multi-year exclusive defence distribution agreement with AmSafe Bridport, becoming the sole distributor for KC-46 and C-40 platforms to the global defence aftermarket, enabling coordination with AAR’s Government Programmes business.

HEALTHCARE

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  Eli Lilly (LLY) - Partnered with Chinese healthcare platform JD Health International to sell its drugs for obesity and diabetes online, according to Bloomberg, citing a statement from the company on its WeChat account.


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  Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) - Halted development of nipocalimab combined with anti-TNFalpha therapy for rheumatoid arthritis after Phase 2a DAISY study showed no significant benefit over anti-TNFalpha alone at 12 weeks. No new safety concerns were observed, and J&J will continue developing nipocalimab for other rheumatic, rare autoantibody, and maternal-foetal indications, citing USD 5bln+ potential.


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  CVS Health (CVS) - Currently not offering COVID vaccines in 16 states, including Florida, New York and Pennsylvania, due to the current regulatory environment, the New York Times reports.


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  UnitedHealth (UNH) - US Senators Ron Wyden and Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to UNH executives asking for info about loans it provided after the cyberattack at its tech unit last year, Reuters reports.

CONSUMER STAPLES

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  US Consumer Staples - WSJ notes that US companies, including Hormel (HRL), J.M. Smucker (SJM), and Ace Hardware, plan to raise prices due to higher meat costs and tariffs. Retailers such as Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Best Buy (BBY) report that some tariff-related price increases are already in effect, with further increases expected, signalling rising costs for household staples.


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  PepsiCo (PEP) - Said to boost stake in Celsius (CELH) with USD 585mln deal, via Bloomberg News.


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  Dollar Tree (DLTR) - Upgraded to 'Outperform' from 'Market Perform' at Telsey with a USD 130 PT (prev. 100). The firm is "encouraged" by the early results from Dollar Tree's introduction of multi-price point products. Telsey sees these initiatives helping Dollar Tree gain market share and manage rising costs.


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  Remy Cointreau (REMYY) - Lowered estimated net tariff impact for FY26 to EUR 30mln (prev. 45mln) after US-EU deal sets 15% tariffs on European wines and spirits; its US impact has been revised to EUR 20mln (prev. 35mln), China unchanged at EUR 10mln. Remy maintained its mid-single-digit organic sales growth target, and anticipates a mid-single-digit decline in current operating profit, while it also plans continued investments in the US and China to support demand recovery.

FINANCIALS

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  Iren Ltd (IREN) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.66 (exp. 0.15), Revenue 187.3mln (exp. 186.5mln). Secured NVIDIA (NVDA) preferred partner status, and procured 168mln in GPUs, expanding the total fleet to 10.9k units. Financing of 96mln arranged via 24-month lease at high single-digit interest for GB300s; B300s funded from existing cash. GPUs to be installed at 10MW liquid-cooled Prince George campus.


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  Crypto - The CFTC clarified that overseas crypto exchanges can register as foreign boards of trade if fully licensed under regimes deemed comparable to US oversight, potentially allowing firms like Binance to legally offer derivatives to American traders.

COMMUNICATIONS

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  Meta (META) - CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced a partnership with India's Reliance to provide open-source AI models to Indian businesses. Meanwhile, OpenAI's ChatGPT co-creator Shengjia Zhao threatened to quit Meta within days of joining, according to the FT.


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  Alphabet (GOOG), Fox (FOX) - YouTube and Fox have reached an agreement to keep Fox News, Fox Sports, and other Fox channels available for YouTube TV subscribers, CNBC reports. Financial terms were not disclosed. Earlier, a short-term deal had been in place while negotiations continued.

MATERIALS

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  DuPont (DD) - Announced an agreement to divest its Aramids business to Arclin for USD 1.8bln; to receive USD 1.2bln in cash, a USD 300mln note and USD 325mln in equity.

MACRO (MORE)

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  Fed's Cook - FHFA Director Pulte submitted a new criminal referral against Fed Governor Cook (voter), citing a third Massachusetts property, intensifying Trump administration scrutiny over alleged mortgage fraud. Earlier complaints claimed Cook falsely listed homes in Michigan and Georgia as her primary residence in 2021 to secure favourable mortgage terms.


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  Tokyo CPI - Tokyo’s CPI slowed to 2.5% Y/Y in August (prev. 2.9% in July), driven by government utility subsidies, while remaining above the BoJ's target. Ex-fresh food, the slowdown reflected lower water, electricity, and gas costs, marking the slowest pace since March and in line with economist forecasts.


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  China FX - The PBoC is nudging the yuan higher, raising its daily reference rate by the most in nearly a year. Overnight, it set the yuan reference mid-point at 7.1030 (exp. 7.1274, prev. 7.1063). Strong exports and an improved growth outlook suggest a subtle policy shift toward supporting a stronger currency, with authorities appearing comfortable engineering gradual yuan appreciation.


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  UK Lloyds Business Barometer - UK business confidence hit a near-decade high in August, with 62% of firms planning to hire over the next 12 months despite April’s payroll tax and minimum wage increases. Over 80% of businesses reported the tax hikes would only minimally affect staffing plans, according to the Lloyds Business Barometer, marking a fourth consecutive month of rising hiring intentions.

TRADE

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  Japan-US - Japan’s trade negotiator Akazawa expects at least one more visit to the US before the Trump administration issues an executive order to formally lower tariffs on Japanese imports. He noted that after US consultations, further ministerial-level discussions will be needed before the agreement can be implemented.


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  India-China - Indian automakers face heavy rare earth magnet shortages as more than 50 import applications to China remain pending, Bloomberg reports. Supply has been halted since April after China, which processes 90% of the world’s rare earths, imposed export curbs amid a renewed US trade conflict. Resolution is hoped for during Modi-Xi talks this weekend.


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  India, Russia, China - Russian President Putin met with Indian PM Modi and Chinese President Xi to discuss energy needs, focusing on cooperation and supply arrangements amid ongoing global energy challenges.


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  Brazil-US - Brazilian President Lula authorised the start of a process to retaliate against the 50% tariffs imposed by former US President Trump. The US government is set to be formally notified on Friday, according to sources cited by Bloomberg.


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  Canada Steel - Canada is considering tougher measures against foreign steel dumping as US tariffs pressure the domestic sector. Industry Minister noted existing 25% tariffs on Chinese steel, tightened tariff-rate quotas, and a 25% surtax on steel from any country (ex-US) using Chinese-melted steel, aiming to protect local producers.

29 Aug 2025 - 13:46- Fixed IncomeExclusive- Source: Newsquawk