Daily US Equity Opening News - AAPL iPhone sees China growth in Jan; CSCO beats, but guidance underwhelms; MCD beats in Q4

TODAY'S AGENDA:

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  US INDEX FUTURES: ES +0.4%, NQ +0.4%, YM +0.4%, RUT +0.7%


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  DAY AHEAD: EU leaders will meet today in Belgium for an informal retreat focused on the bloc’s future amid geopolitical tensions; the talks are designed to encourage discussions outside Brussels without formal conclusions. Talks will focus on strengthening the single market, reducing economic dependencies and boosting competitiveness. The rate of US existing home sales is seen easing to 4.15mln in January from 4.35mln in December. Today's speakers' slate includes the ECB chief economist Lane, ECB's Nagel. Norges Bank Governor Bache will deliver her annual speech. In supply, the US will sell USD 25bln in 30yr bonds. Notable US corporates reporting today include: ABNB, AMAT, VRTX, RIVN, PINS, DKNG, COIN, and ANET.


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  BROKER MOVES: SHOP upgraded at Mizuho; INSP downgraded at Wells Fargo and Nephron. For the full list, click here.
  


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  MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: Mag-7, MU/SNDK/STX/WDC, EQIX, MSI, MCD, CSCO, TYL, APP. For the full list, click here.
  


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  US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: CRM, ABBV, AMGN. For the full list, click here.
  

NEWS

TECH

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  Apple (AAPL) - Apple’s iPhone was the only smartphone line to post sales growth in China in January, rising 8%, according to Counterpoint Research; the overall market fell 23%, with declines reported by Huawei Technologies and Xiaomi, amid reduced subsidies and Lunar New Year timing shifts. Apple’s iPhone 17 lineup lifted its market share to about one-fifth, level with Huawei. Separately, Evercore ISI said Apple may delay the release of its Apple Intelligence and Siri upgrades due to recent testing snags affecting the virtual assistant. The firm expects a multi-phase rollout of new AI features this year, with updates mid-year and a complete Siri overhaul in the fall. Evercore maintained an Outperform rating and USD 330 PT on Apple shares. Elsewhere, the FT reports that the FTC has warned Apple not to stifle conservative content on its Apple News platform. FTC chair Andrew Ferguson recently sent a letter to CEO Tim Cook, citing a recent press coverage report from conservative media watchdog Media Research Center which claimed the company promoted "leftist outlets" on its feed.


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  SoftBank (SFTBY) - SoftBank posted a gain at its Vision Fund in the December quarter, driven by a rise in the value of its investment in OpenAI, offsetting losses elsewhere. It reported Q3 net profit of JPY 950bln (exp. 420bln), Q3 revenue USD 11.2bln (exp. 10.8bln). The group reported a USD 2.4bln gain at its Vision Fund, driven by a rise in the valuation of its investment in OpenAI, which helped offset losses across other portfolio companies; the investment arm continues to focus on AI category leaders, alongside core holdings including chip designer Arm and stakes spanning robotics and autonomous driving. CFO Goto said nothing has been decided about an additional funding round for OpenAI. Nothing to comment on investment in relation to plans for Japanese investment in the US.


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  Cisco (CSCO) - Cisco shares fell in extended trading after it issued guidance that only met expectations, disappointing traders, despite reporting better-than-expected quarterly results. Q2 2026 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.04 (exp. 1.02), Revenue 15.3bln (exp. 15.12bln). In Q2, it posted order growth across new and refreshed products, with networking again the standout, and highlighted continued momentum in its SaaS business as AI adoption increases, adding that it expects to recognise 3bln in revenue from AI hyperscalers in 2026. Chair/CEO Robbins said the strong Q2 and H1 demonstrate the power of Cisco’s portfolio and its role in delivering trusted infrastructure for the AI era, adding the group is on track for its strongest year yet. Raised quarterly dividend +2% to 0.42/shr. Sees Q3 adj. EPS between 1.02-1.04 (exp. 1.03) and Q3 revenue between 15.4-15.6bln (exp. 15.21bln); raised its FY26 outlook, sees adj. EPS between 4.13-4.17 (exp. 4.13) and FY revenue between at 61.2-61.7bln (exp. 60.77bln; prev. saw 60.2-61bln), citing strong demand across all customer markets.


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  Samsung Electronics (5930 KS) - Samsung has begun commercial shipments of its latest HBM4 memory chips to an unnamed customer, marking a milestone in the AI memory market, Bloomberg reports. The move positions Samsung ahead of rivals as it seeks to meet strong demand for Nvidia (NVDA) graphics chips, used to train and operate advanced AI models.


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  Lenovo Group (LNVGY) - Reported a 21% decline in net income for the December quarter, despite revenue rising to USD 22.2bln, above expectations. Shares fell as much as 6.3% in APAC trade following the results, reflecting concerns over margin pressure from surging memory prices affecting the electronics industry.


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  Memory names - Kioxia projected better-than-expected full-year operating income, driven by rising NAND flash prices and strong AI-driven demand for data storage.


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  Applied Materials (AMAT) - Applied Materials agreed to pay USD 252.5mln to settle a US Commerce Department investigation into improper exports to China; the agreement resolves allegations by the Bureau of Industry and Security that certain shipments between November 2020 and July 2022 did not comply with export regulations, concluding a yearslong probe.


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  Intel (INTC) - Competition Commission of India imposes penalty on Intel over warranty policy.


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  Strategy (MSTR) - Plans to issue additional perpetual preferred stock to address investor concerns about the volatility of its shares, CEO said. He said the company has structured the product to give investors access to digital capital with reduced volatility exposure.


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  Confluent (CFLT), IBM (IBM) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.12 (exp. 0.10), Revenue 314.8mln (exp. 308.06mln). Revenue rose +23% Y/Y in Confluent Cloud, with management highlighting continued AI product advancements and innovation across its core data streaming platform to support mission-critical workloads. Confluent announced in December that it has entered into an agreement to be acquired by IBM for USD 31.00/shr in cash; the transaction is expected to close by mid-2026, subject to approvals. In light of the pending transaction, it will not hold a conference call to discuss Q4 results and will not provide financial guidance.


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  Motorola (MSI) - Motorola shares edged higher in extended trading after it reported record revenue, earnings and cash flow, alongside strong software and services growth and a record backlog that improved long-term visibility. Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 4.59 (exp. 4.35), Revenue 3.38bln (exp. 3.34bln). Chair/CEO Brown cited record backlog and strong demand as underpinning momentum into the new year. Sees Q1 EPS at 3.20-3.25 (exp. 3.25), and revenue up +6-7% Y/Y, implying revenue at 2.68-2.70bln (exp. 2.76bln). For FY26, sees EPS between 16.70-16.85 (exp. 16.32), and revenue of ~12.7bln (exp. 12.6bln).


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  AI Chatbots - The Pentagon is urging OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and xAI to deploy AI tools on classified networks with fewer restrictions, expanding beyond unclassified systems such as genai.mil, used by over 3mln Defense Department staff, Reuters reports. Officials aim to use AI across all classification levels, despite error risks. Anthropic has resisted autonomous weapons and domestic surveillance uses. Negotiations remain ongoing, Reuters said.


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  Xiaomi (XIACY) - Xiaomi announced Xiaomi-Robotics-0, an open-source 4.7bln-parameter vision-language-action model using a Mixture-of-Transformers architecture combining a visual language model and a diffusion-based action module. Xiaomi said it achieved state-of-the-art results in LIBERO, CALVIN and SimplerEnv, and demonstrated real-world dual-arm robot tasks.


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  Shopify (SHOP) - TD Cowen upgraded SHOP to 'Buy' from 'Hold' with a unchanged PT of USD 159. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade, with the shares down 30% YTD. Shopify's "strong" quarter, continued growth momentum and the post-earnings pullback, "represents an attractive entry point for investors to own the de facto modern-day eCommerce infrastructure". TD believes Shopify's fundamentals are strong while the stock's valuation is now "much more reasonable."


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  Paycom (PAYC) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 2.45 (exp. 2.45), Revenue 544.3mln (exp. 542.8mln); sees FY26 adj. EBITDA at 950-970mln and FY26 revenue of 2.175-2.195bln (exp. 2.23bln).


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  Check Point Software (CHKP) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 3.40 (exp. 2.77), Revenue 744.9mln (exp. 746.4mln).


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  HubSpot (HUBS) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.09 (exp. 2.99), Revenue 846.7mln (exp. 830.81mln). Management cited momentum in its agentic customer platform and acceleration upmarket, with increased AI adoption driven by Breeze Customer Agent and Breeze Prospecting Agent, while larger customers consolidated technology stacks and sought lower total cost of ownership. Sees Q1 EPS between 2.46-2.48 (exp. 2.34) and Q1 revenue between 862-863mln (exp. 838.33mln). Sees FY26 EPS between 12.38-12.46 (exp. 11.46) and FY26 revenue between 3.69-3.7bln (exp. 3.61bln).


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  Tyler Technologies (TYL) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 2.64 (exp. 2.73), Revenue 575.2mln (exp. 591.09mln). Sees FY26 EPS between 12.40-12.65 (exp. 12.56) and FY26 revenue of 2.5-2.55bln (exp. 2.55bln).


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  Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 4.33 (exp. 4.33), Revenue 1.475bln (exp. 1.47bln); sees Q1 adj. EPS at 4.04-4.35 (exp. 4.11) and FY26 adj. EPS at 17.70-18.30 (exp. 17.62).


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  Fastly (FSLY) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.12 (exp. 0.06), Revenue 127.6mln (exp. 161.4mln); sees Q1 adj. EPS at 0.07-0.10 (exp. 0.01) and Q1 revenue of 168-174mln (exp. 159.6mln); sees FY26 adj. EPS at 0.23-0.29 (exp. 0.13) and FY26 revenue of 700-720mln (exp. 668mln).


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  Cognex (CGNX) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.27 (exp. 0.22), Revenue 252mln (exp. 238.9mln); sees Q1 adj. EPS at 0.22-0.26 (exp. 0.19) and Q1 revenue of 235-255mln (exp. 228.8mln).


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  Grab Holdings (GRAB) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.00 (prev. 0.01 last year), Revenue 906mln (exp. 941mln); sees FY26 revenue at 4.04-4.10bln (exp. 4.13bln).


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  Rigetti Computing (RGTI) - Downgraded at TD Cowen to 'Hold' from 'Buy'. The firm sees a balanced risk/reward at current share levels due to Rigetti's "premium valuation" relative to peers. The company may also need new capital to fund its 200mm fab. TD believes Rigetti is facing greater competition, as headwinds are being excluded from Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative Stage B program.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

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  McDonalds (MCD) - McDonald’s reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue, driven by strong same-store sales and improved traffic as value offerings and promotional campaigns attracted customers. Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.12 (exp. 3.05), Revenue 7.01bln (exp. 6.84bln); global comparable sales increased 5.7% (exp. 3.8%), with US +6.8%, International Operated Markets +5.2%, and International Developmental Licensed Markets +4.5%, while global systemwide sales rose 8%. Management said value leadership initiatives improved traffic and affordability scores, citing strong performance from the return of Snack Wraps in the US and its Minecraft movie collaboration, its largest global campaign to date, and noted improving trends in low-income customer share, although it expects quick service restaurant environments in the US and many markets to remain challenging. Targets approximately 2,600 gross restaurant openings in 2026, including about 750 in the US and International Operated Markets, contributing to roughly 2,100 net additions and around 2.5% systemwide sales growth in constant currencies, and remains on track for 50,000 restaurants and 250mln 90-day active users by end-2027. Sees FY26 capital expenditure between USD 3.7-3.9bln, operating margin in the mid-to-high 40% range, interest expense +4-6%, an effective tax rate between 21-23%, free cash flow conversion in the low-to-mid 80% range, and a FX tailwind to FY26 EPS between 0.20-0.30/shr.


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  Restaurant Brands (QSR) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.96 (exp. 0.95), Revenue 2.466bln (exp. 2.41bln).


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  Amazon (AMZN) - Tax police search Amazon's Italian HQ in new probe into alleged fiscal fraud, according to reports.


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  CarMax (KMX) - Appointed Keith Barr as President and CEO, effective March 16, and named him to the Board. Barr previously served as CEO of InterContinental Hotels Group (2017–2023). Interim CEO David McCreight will return to his role as independent director, while Tom Folliard will remain Interim Executive Chair until the June annual meeting before resuming his role as non-executive Chair.


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  China Autos - China’s State Administration for Market Regulation issued auto industry guidelines to regulate pricing, curb price wars and prevent unfair competition, Reuters reports. The measures apply to carmakers, parts suppliers and dealers involved in vehicle production and new car sales, targeting practices such as failure to display required prices and deceptive promotions, and urging platforms to warn consumers about risks from significantly low-priced offers.


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  Mercedes-Benz (MBG) - Mercedes warned margins will remain under pressure amid tariffs and competition in China, and sees returns of 3-5% (vs 5% last year); plans to cut costs and reduce capacity by 10% to 2.2mln. China deliveries fell one-fifth, as BYD and Xiaomi gained share. Proposed a dividend of EUR 3.50 per share, down from EUR 4.30. FY25 EBIT EUR 5.8bln (exp. 6.6bln), FY25 revenue USD 156.8bln (exp. 158.9bln). EBIT -57% Y/Y to EUR 5.8bln, while revenue -9% Y/Y to EUR 156.8bln (from EUR 172.3bln Y/Y), reflecting weaker demand in China, tariff headwinds and adverse currency effects. FY adj. return on sales at the core passenger cars division was 5%, within the 4-6% target range, but below the initial 6-8% margin outlook that was withdrawn in April. The CEO noted a dynamic market environment due to a focus on efficiency, speed and flexibility. Now targets a medium-term passenger car margin of 8-10%, supported by new product launches and cost discipline, but did not provide specific FY26 financial guidance.


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  Toyota (TM) - Toyota extended the tender deadline for its bid to privatise Toyota Industries to 2nd March (from Thursday), with the offer price unchanged. Shareholders holding 33% have agreed to sell and, combined with Toyota’s existing 25% stake, the group remains about 9ppts short of the two-thirds majority required, amid opposition from Elliott Investment Management, Bloomberg reports.


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  Nissan Motor (NSANY) - Q3 net income JPY -28.3bln (prev. -14.1bln), Q3 revenue JPY 2.99tln (exp. n/a). For the nine months, net income was JPY -250.22bln (prev. 5.15bln Y/Y) on revenue of JPY 8.58tln (prev. 9.14tln Y/Y). Q3 operating profit declined to JPY 17.5bln (prev. 31.1bln Y/Y). For the full year, sees global sales volume of 3.2mln units, net revenue of JPY 11.9tln, operating profit of JPY -60bln and net income of JPY -650bln. Raised FY net revenue outlook, now sees FY net revenue between JPY 11.90-11.90tln (prev. saw 11.70tln) and sees FY operating profit at JPY -60bln. Management said it has identified JPY 240bln of potential cost savings through “thousands of innovative ideas” moving into implementation, aiming to secure sustainable efficiencies without compromising quality, safety or performance, and expressed confidence that its savings target will be eclipsed by FY26.


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  Rollins (ROL) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.25 (exp. 0.27), Revenue 913mln (exp. 925mln).


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  Hermes (HESAY) - Reported Q4 revenue growth of 9.8% (exp. 8.4%), driven by 12.1% growth in the Americas and 14.6% organic growth in its leather division; FY operating profit was EUR 6.57bln, with a 41% margin (exp. 40%); proposed a EUR 18/shr dividend, and guided price increases of +5-6% in 2026 (vs 6-7% in 2025).


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  Tripadvisor (TRIP) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.04 (exp. 0.13), Revenue 411mln (exp. 412.66mln).


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  Trip.com (TCOM) - China Central Television reported that the City of Beijing had summoned the Internet firm along with 11 others over issues related to train ticket sales, Bloomberg reports.


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  Leggett & Platt (LEG) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.22 (exp. 0.23), Revenue 939mln (exp. 938.74mln). Its restructuring plan, launched in early 2024, was completed by the end of 2025, delivering greater EBIT benefits at lower costs than initially expected. Said recent improvements are sustainable, and should support improved profitability and cash flow. Sees FY26 adj. EPS between 1.00-1.20 (exp. 1.09), and FY26 revenue of 3.8-4bln (exp. 3.9bln).


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  Crocs (CROX) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.29 (exp. 1.90), Revenue 958mln (exp. 917mln); sees 2026 adj. EPS at 12.88-13.35 (exp. 11.92) and Q1 adj. EPS of 2.67-2.77 (exp. 2.53).


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  QuantumScape (QS) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS -0.17 (exp. -0.17); FY adj. EBITDA -252.3mln (exp. -297.85mln). Begun shipping low volumes of its QSE-5 B-sample solid-state battery cells, featuring 844 Wh/L energy density and the ability to charge from 10% to 80% in under 15 minutes. The company highlighted expanded partnerships with Volkswagen and PowerCo to support commercialisation. In 2025, QuantumScape plans to install higher-volume production equipment and ship additional B1 samples, with scalable production targeted via its Eagle Line in 2026.

FINANCIALS

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  Brown & Brown (BRO) - Announced that it has entered into an accelerated share repurchase program with Bank of America for USD 250mln of the company's common stock. The ASR is part of the board-approved USD 1.5bln share repurchase authorisation announced on October 22, 2025.


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  CME (CME) - Raised quarterly dividend 4% to USD 1.30/shr (prev. 1.25).


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  Morgan Stanley (MS) - Approved USD 45mln in total compensation for CEO Ted Pick for 2025, up from USD 34mln in 2024, a 32% increase. The board cited “exceptional results,” including record revenue, EPS, and a 45% total shareholder return. About 75% of the pay is deferred over three years and tied to performance goals.


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  Coinbase (COIN) - Double downgraded at Monness Crespi to 'Sell' from 'Buy' with a USD 120 PT as the firm cuts estimates again ahead of the Q4 report. The firm says its prior assumption of a steady recovery over the course of calendar 2026 was "foolish" given the typical length and magnitude of crypto bear markets, telling investors that it now models softness through the first half of 2026 and sets its calendar 2026 and 2027 estimates below the Street view. The firm expects better entry points in the future.


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  Schroders (SHNWY) - Nuveen is acquiring Schroders for GBP 9.9bln, ending more than two centuries of independence for the UK’s largest standalone asset manager; shareholders will receive 612p/shr (comprising of 590p in cash, and a 22p dividend).

INDUSTRIALS

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  Boeing (BA), Airbus (EADSY) - Air Canada announced plans to add eight Airbus A350-1000 widebody aircraft, with deliveries beginning in H2 2030; it also holds rights to purchase eight more. The order is in addition to 14 Boeing 787-10 Dreamliners entering service later this year, 30 Airbus A321XLRs, 23 remaining Airbus A220s from a firm order of 65, and five leased Boeing 737 MAX aircraft due in 2026.


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  Fedex (FDX) - Now sees Q3 adj. EPS exceeding expected 3.99. Announced 2029 forecast: Revenue of ~USD 99bln, Operating income of USD 8bln and Operating margin of 8%. Planned FedEx Freight spinoff on track for June 1 and sees InPost deal closing in 2H26.


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  Siemens (SIEGY) - Raised its outlook after stronger demand for factory automation products boosted returns and orders, including for data centres. Q1 industrial profit EUR 2.90bln (exp. 2.64bln), Q1 revenue USD 22.70bln (exp. 22.64bln), reflecting solid demand across its digital industries, smart infrastructure and mobility businesses, with AI-related applications and data centre exposure supporting momentum. Highlighted growth in industrial software, including AI-enabled automation and digital twin technology, alongside hardware such as power distribution equipment for data centres. The CEO said the company is scaling industrial AI across its core industries and integrating it more deeply into design, development, products and operations to deliver measurable customer value. Raised its outlook, sees FY26 basic EPS between EUR 10.70-11.10 (exp. 10.74; prev. saw 10.40-11.00).


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  Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.05 (exp. 0.97), Revenue 2.2bln (exp. 2.12bln), Adj. EBITDA 653mln (exp. 623.9mln), Net income 372mln (exp. 390mln). Sees Q1 adj. EPS at 1.09-1.11 (exp. 1.02) and Q1 revenue of 2.225-2.245bln (exp. 2.17bln); sees FY26 adj. EPS at 4.35-4.55 (exp. 4.47) and FY26 revenue of 9.0-9.2bln (exp. 9.14bln).


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  AAR Corp. (AIR) - Appointed Dylan Wolin as CFO, effective 23rd February. Interim CFO Sarah Flanagan will return to her role as VP, Financial Operations, effective 23rd February.


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  NuScale Power (SMR) - Partnering with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to apply an AI-enabled nuclear design framework to optimize fuel management across a 12-module NuScale plant. The collaboration is funded through the DOE’s GAIN initiative, aimed at accelerating nuclear technology commercialisation.


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  Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA GY) - Cancelled hundreds of flights from German airports on Thursday as pilots and cabin crew staged a one-day strike over stalled contract negotiations, Bloomberg reports. The walkouts began at 12:01 a.m. local time and will last until 11:59 p.m., grounding commercial and cargo flights a day before the Munich Security Conference.


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  Southwest Airlines (LUV) - Will introduce Starlink inflight connectivity, engineered by SpaceX, across its network of 11 countries. The first Starlink-equipped aircraft will enter service this summer. The carrier plans to equip more than 300 aircraft with the technology by the end of 2026.


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  Waste Connections (WCN) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.29 (exp. 1.27), Revenue 2.373bln (exp. 2.37bln). Management cited price-led organic growth in solid waste and improved operating trends, alongside ~330mln in acquired annualised revenue during 2025. Sees FY26 revenue between 9.9-9.95bln (exp. 9.97bln).


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  Curtiss-Wright (CW) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.79 (exp. 3.69), Revenue 947mln (exp. 890mln); sees FY26Y EPS at 14.70-15.15 (exp. 14.61) and FY26 revenue of 3.71-3.765bln (exp. 3.69).


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  AeroVironment (AVAV) - AeroVironment’s LOCUST laser counter-drone system was deployed by the US Army near El Paso International Airport, prompting the FAA to halt air traffic for more than seven hours over safety concerns, according to Reuters.

HEALTHCARE

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  Novo Nordisk (NVO), Eli Lilly (LLY) - Novo Nordisk plans to begin selling its weight-loss drug Wegovy in vials, following rival Eli Lilly, which introduced vials nearly two years ago to offer a lower-priced option and ease shortages. Novo currently sells Wegovy in injector pens and has been discounting its obesity treatments to compete. Pricing for the vials has not been disclosed, Bloomberg said.


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  Novo Nordisk (NVO) - Upgraded at Jefferies to 'Hold' from 'Underperform'. Novo's near-term downside risks have now crystallised. Jefferies believes the company still needs meaningful acquisitions to diversify its portfolio, but said the US oral Wegovy launch could drive share momentum.


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  Sanofi (SNY), Merck KGaA (MKKGY) - Sanofi said Belen Garijo will succeed Paul Hudson as CEO after the board decided not to renew Hudson’s mandate. The decision was taken at an 11th February board meeting. Garijo, currently CEO of Merck KGaA, will assume the role at the end of the annual general meeting on 29th April. Hudson will step down on 17th February at the close of business.


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  Biogen (BIIB) - Board elected Maria Freire as chair, effective immediately following the company’s 2026 annual meeting of stockholders on 9th June. She will succeed Caroline Dorsa, who will retire from the board and not stand for re-election at the meeting.


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  Inspire Medical (INSP) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.65 (exp. 0.68), Revenue 269.1mln (exp. 266.2mln); sees FY26 adj. EPS at 1.85-2.35 (exp. 1.67) and FY26 revenue of 950mln-1.0bln (exp. 1.0bln). INSP was downgraded at Baird to 'Neutral' from 'Outperform' with a USD 74 PT (prev. 130). INSP's lowered FY26 guidance provides "little confidence in a clearer path forward" following several recent negative reimbursement changes. The firm says the reimbursement impacts bring uncertainty to Inspire's utilisation and new accounts, making it difficult to argue for a higher share multiple. As such, Baird moves to the sidelines pending a "more stable, higher-growth outlook."


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  Baxter International (BAX) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.36 (exp. 0.54), Revenue 2.97bln (exp. 2.82bln); sees FY26 adj. EPS at 1.85-2.05 (exp. 2.25) and FY26 revenue flat to up 1%.


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  QuidelOrtho (QDEL) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.46 (exp. 0.42), Revenue 724mln (exp. 700.09mln). Management said the company transitioned in 2025 from COVID-driven volatility to a more diversified diagnostics business, with Labs, Immunohematology and Cardiac delivering consistent growth and cost-savings initiatives supporting margin expansion. Sees FY26 revenue of 2.7-2.9bln (exp. 2.49bln), and sees FY26 adj. EPS between 2.00-2.42 (exp. 2.49). Expects FY26 CapEx at 150-170mln, an effective tax rate of 24%, quarterly revenue phasing similar to 2025, gross profit margin relatively flat Y/Y, a typical flu season of 50-55mln annual market tests, and Covid-19 revenue flat versus 80mln in FY25.


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  Zoetis Inc. (ZTS) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj, EPS 1. 48 (exp. 1.40), Revenue 2.39bln (exp. 2.36bln); backed FY26 adj. EPS of 7.00-7.10 (exp. 6.83) and FY26 revenue of 9.83-10.03bln (exp. 9.91bln).


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  West Pharmaceutical (WST) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.04 (exp. 1.83), Revenue 805mln (exp. 794.8mln); sees Q1 adj. EPS 1.65-1.70 (exp. 1.65) and Q1 revenue of 770-790mln (exp. 763.1mln); sees FY26 adj. EPS at 7.85-8.20 (exp. 7.76) and FY26 revenue of 3.22-3.28bln (exp. 3.24bln).


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  BridgeBio Pharma (BBIO) - Said the Phase 3 PROPEL 3 trial of oral infigratinib in children with achondroplasia met its primary endpoint, showing a +1.74 cm/year LS mean improvement in annualized height velocity vs. placebo at Week 52. Key secondary endpoints, including height Z-score and body proportionality, were also statistically significant. The drug was well tolerated, with no drug-related serious adverse events or discontinuations. BridgeBio plans to meet with regulators and target NDA/MAA submissions in 2H26.


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  Viking Therapetuics (VKTX) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS -1.38 (exp. -0.90). Plans to advance the oral tablet version of VK2735 into a Phase 3 study in Q3, with further design details to come. Mid-stage data suggest low-dose oral therapy may support effective weight maintenance. Viking said offering both oral and injectable formulations could differentiate VK2735 from competitors.


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  Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 1.25 (exp. 1.50), Revenue 1.1bln (exp. 1.16bln); sees FY26 revenue of 4.9-5.3bln (exp. 5.55bln).


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  AbbVie (ABBV) - Sued the US HHS challenging CMS’ move to impose price controls on Botox. AbbVie argues Botox was specifically excluded from Medicare price negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act. The suit names HHS, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., CMS, and Administrator Mehmet Oz as defendants.


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  Agilent (A) - FDA approved PD-L1 IHC 22C3 pharmDx as the only FDA-approved companion diagnostic to identify patients with epithelial ovarian, fallopian tube, or primary peritoneal carcinoma whose tumours express PD-L1 and may be eligible for Merck’s (MERK) KEYTRUDA.


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  ICON Public (ICLR) - Said it plans to report Q4 and FY25 results by April 30 but is continuing an internal Audit Committee investigation into accounting practices, primarily focused on revenue recognition from 2023–2025. Preliminary findings suggest 2023 and 2024 revenue may have been overstated by less than 2% each year, and the company expects to report material weaknesses in internal controls. ICON withdrew its 2025 guidance and has not yet finalised 2025 results. No customer impact has been identified.


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  NovoCure (NVCR) - The FDA approved Optune Pax for adults with locally advanced pancreatic cancer in combination with gemcitabine and nab-paclitaxel. In the Phase 3 PANOVA-3 trial, Optune Pax met its primary endpoint, showing a statistically significant improvement in overall survival, with additional gains in one-year survival. The device was well tolerated, with no new safety signals and no added systemic toxicity.

COMMUNICATIONS

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  AppLovin (APP) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.24 (exp. 2.94), Revenue 1.66bln (exp. 1.61bln). Adj. EBITDA 1.4bln (exp. 1.33bln), reflecting continued strength in its advertising technology platform. For Q1, sees revenue of 1.745-1.775bln (exp. 1.70bln), and sees Q1 adj. EBITDA of 1.465-1.495bln (exp. 1.40bln), indicating sustained profitability and operating leverage into the new year.


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  Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOG) - Russian authorities blocked Meta-owned WhatsApp, cutting off access for its at least 100mln Russian users and removing it from the Roskomnadzor online directory, effectively erasing it from the country’s internet, FT reports. Facebook and Instagram were also removed, while access to Alphabet's YouTube was degraded. The move follows efforts to promote state-controlled app Max, owned by VK, and broader restrictions on Telegram.


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  Alphabet (GOOG), Kakao (035720 KS) - Kakao formed a strategic partnership with Google to collaborate on on-device AI, upgrading its Kanana chatbot within KakaoTalk and optimising services for Android, with an official launch due in Q1, Korea Times reports.

MATERIALS

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  US Coal - President Trump ordered the Pentagon to purchase electricity from coal-fired power plants and announced millions of dollars to upgrade existing facilities, seeking to extend US reliance on coal. He directed Defence Secretary Hegseth to secure long-term agreements for military operations, with the Pentagon’s energy installation office pursuing contracts to provide greater demand and business certainty.


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  Albemarle (ALB) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS -0.53 (exp. -0.49), Revenue 1.4bln (exp. 1.35bln). Management said it has strengthened its competitive position through portfolio optimisation and cost reductions amid volatile lithium pricing. Separately, it announced that it will idle the remaining operating train at its Kemerton lithium hydroxide processing plant in Western Australia, placing it into care and maintenance effective immediately, a move expected to be accretive to adj. EBITDA from Q2 with no impact on projected 2026 volumes; management said the decision improves financial flexibility and preserves optionality despite recent lithium price improvements.


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  Arconic Corp. - Seeking to buy about 90mln pounds of aluminium in the spot market for Q2, an unusual move that could further tighten a market disrupted by President Trump’s tariffs, Bloomberg reports. The company typically sources most raw materials through annual contracts, the report said.


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  Thyssenkrupp (TKAMY) - Reaffirmed its FY outlook despite restructuring costs at its steel division and a weak industrial backdrop; continues to expect adj. earnings before interest and taxes of at least EUR 500mln and a cash outflow of no more than EUR 600mln this fiscal year. Q1 net loss EUR -353mln (exp. 32mln profit), reflecting EUR 401mln in restructuring charges at its Steel Europe division to fund extensive job cuts, as it advances talks with India’s Jindal Steel International over a potential disposal of the business. Management said an agreement to exit the HKM steel joint venture earlier than planned could result in an additional disposal loss in the low- to mid-three-digit million EUR range. The restructuring is intended to accelerate negotiations on the sale of Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe, a strategically significant but volatile unit that has weighed on group performance. The CEO reiterated that resolving the steel division remains central to the strategy of transforming Thyssenkrupp into a holding company structure, following the divestment and separate listings of its electrolyser and warship businesses.


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  International Flavors & Fragrances (IFF) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.80 (exp. 0.83), Revenue 2.589bln (exp. 2.52bln). Sees FY revenue at 10.5-10.8bln (exp. 10.61bln), and sees FY adj. operating EBITDA between 2.05-2.15bln.

CONSUMER STAPLES

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  Kraft Heinz (KHC) - Downgraded at JPMorgan to 'Underweight' from 'Neutral' with a USD 22 PT (prev. 24). The company reported a Q4 beat but its 2026 organic sales growth and earnings outlooks were below consensus estimates. The firm sees challenges that could limit Kraft's expected volume inflexion as 2026 progresses. JPMorgan cites the company's ongoing volume challenges and planned investments for the downgrade.


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  Anheuser-Busch Inbev (BUD) - AB InBev reported a 1.5% decline in overall volumes in Q4, less than analysts expected, as weaker volumes in Europe and North America were offset by growth in other regions and stronger sales of premium and non-alcoholic products. Q4 organic operating profit +2.3% (exp. +1.4%), Q4 revenue +2.5% (exp. +1.5%), Q4 volumes fell -1.5% (exp. -2.7%); the brewer said it gained or maintained share in around two-thirds of its markets despite ongoing weak category demand. Backed its regular annual outlook for 2026; sees organic operating profit growth between +4-8%, broadly in line with prior guidance and ahead of some peers’ projections of up to 6%. Management highlighted USD 7.4bln of investment in sales and marketing and pointed to major sporting events in 2026, including the Super Bowl, Winter Olympics and FIFA World Cup, as potential demand catalysts. The CEO said the company exited 2025 with improved momentum, entered 2026 well positioned, signalling confidence in delivering profit growth at the upper end of its long-term in a challenging consumer environment.


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  Unilever (UL) - Reported Q4 underlying sales growth of 4.2% (exp. 3.9%), driven by demand for Dove and Vaseline; the results mark its first since spinning off its ice cream business in December. Unilever warned that slowing markets could weigh on growth this year.


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  British American Tobacco (BTI) - Reported a 2.3% rise in annual profit to GBP 11.28bln, as Velo nicotine pouches gained US market share from Altria’s (MO) On! and Philip Morris’ (PM) Zyn; revenue from newer products rose 7% Y/Y, lifting total sales +2.1% to GBP 25.61bln.

REAL ESTATE

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  Equinix (EQIX) Q4 2025 (USD): Normalised FFO/shr 8.91 (exp. 9.07), Revenue 2.29bln (exp. 2.46bln). Management cited accelerated growth in bookings and recurring revenue and stated that demand for its AI, cloud and networking infrastructure solutions has never been higher. The CEO is confident in delivering robust revenue and AFFO per share growth in 2026, highlighting its role in supporting increasingly distributed AI infrastructure. Raised quarterly dividend to USD 5.16 per share. Sees Q1 revenue of 2.50-2.54bln (exp. 2.47bln); sees FY26 normalised FFO/shr between 41.93-42.74 (exp. 40.63) with revenues between 10.12-10.22bln (exp. 10.09bln).


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  Iron Mountain (IRM) Q4 2025 (USD): AFFO 1.44 (exp. 1.39), Revenue 1.8bln (exp. 1.8bln); sees 2026 AFFO at 5.69-5.79 (exp. 5.69) and 2026 revenue of 7.63-7.78bln (exp. 7.59bln).


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  CBRE Group (CBRE) Q4 2025 (USD): Core EPS 2.73 (exp 2.68), Revenue 11.6bln (exp. 11.6bln); sees FY26 core EPS at 7.30-7.60 (exp. 7.49).


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  Kimco Realty (KIM) Q4 2025 (USD): FFO 0.44 (exp. 0.44), Revenue 542mln (exp. 534mln); sees 2026 FFO at 1.80-1.84 (exp. 1.80).

ENERGY

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  IEA - Cut 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850k BPD (prev. 930k BPD); cut 2026 global oil supply growth forecast to 2.4mln BPD (prev. 2.5mln BPD); Lowered 2026 forecast for non-OPEC+ supply growth to 1.2mln BPD (prev. 1.3mln BPD). Escalating geopolitical tensions, snowstorms, and extreme temperatures in North America, as well as Kazakh supply disruptions, sparked a reversal to a bullish market.


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  Noble (NE) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.09 (exp. 0.15), Revenue 764mln (exp. 732.74mln). Highlighted nearly 10 rig years of new bookings, representing USD 1.3bln of backlog, alongside the divestiture of six jackups to further optimise fleet focus and strengthen the balance sheet. Sees FY26 revenue at 2.8-3bln (exp. 3.01bln), and FY26 adj. EBITDA of 940-1.02bln, with FY CapEx of 590-640mln.


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  Antero Resources (AR) Q4 EPS 2025 (USD): 0.62 (exp. 0.53), Revenue 1.41bln (exp. 1.31bln).


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  BP (BP) - Downgraded at HSBC to 'Reduce' from 'Hold' with a USD 35.10 PT (prev. 38.10). The firm believes the buyback suspension leaves BP at the sector's lowest distribution yield, with little forward visibility and "undifferentiated" medium-term growth. HSBC sees few near-term positive catalysts to drive a re-rating of the shares.

UTILITIES

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  PG&E Corporation (PCG) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 0.36 (exp. 0.36); sees FY26 EPS at 1.64-1.66 (exp. 1.63; prev. saw 1.62-1.66).


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  American Electric Power (AEP) Q4 2025 (USD): EPS 1.19 (exp. 1.15), Revenue 5.31bln (exp. 4.89bln); backed FY26 operating EPS view of 6.15-6.45 (exp. 6.32).


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  Ameren (AEE) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.78 (exp. 0.77), Revenue 1.78bln (exp. 1.91bln); backed FY26 adj. EPS view of 5.25-5.45 (exp. 5.36).


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  Entergy (ETR) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.51 (exp. 0.52); sees FY26 EPS at 4.25-4.45 (exp. 4.40).


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  Exelon (EXC) Q4 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.59 (exp. 0.55), Revenue 5.41bln (exp. 5.49bln); sees FY26 adj. EPS at 2.81-2.91 (exp. 2.83) and sees 41.3bln of capex over the next four years.

MACRO

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  US Budget Deficit - US tariff revenue helped reduce the budget deficit by 17% in the first four months of FY26. The gap narrowed to USD 697bln through January (vs USD 840bln a year earlier). After adjusting for calendar differences, the fiscal 2026 deficit to date declined 21%.


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  Japan - Japan’s top currency official said the government remains on high alert over FX movements despite recent JPY gains; Vice finance minister for international affairs Atsushi Mimura said that authorities have not lowered their guard, but declined to comment on speculation about rate checks following US jobs data and related market moves.

TRADE

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  US-Canada - The US House voted 219-211 to rescind President Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods, with six Republicans joining Democrats to back the resolution. The measure now heads to the Senate, and is considered unlikely to become law. Trump has the authority to veto the legislation, and it is unlikely that Senate could garner two-thirds to overturn Trump's veto.


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  US-China - US Energy Secretary Wright said China has bought some Venezuelan oil previously purchased by the US, without providing details. He added that legitimate Chinese business deals under legitimate business conditions would be acceptable when asked about joint ventures in Venezuela.


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  US-Japan - The US and Japan are finalising the first three projects under Tokyo’s USD 550bln investment vehicle agreed in last year’s trade deal. Shortlisted projects include a data centre infrastructure initiative led by SoftBank (SFTBY), a deep-sea oil terminal in the Gulf of Mexico, and synthetic diamonds for semiconductors, according to Bloomberg.


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  EU-China - China's Commerce Ministry announced its final ruling on an anti-subsidy probe into EU dairy products; China will impose an 11.7% tariff on dairy products from the bloc.

12 Feb 2026 - 13:58- Geopolitical- Source: Newsquawk