CRYPTO UPDATE: President Trump sends Bitcoin flying after naming coins to be included in strategic reserve

24 Hour Prices:

• 
  Bitcoin soared in the prior session, and remains near best levels in today’s session – though with the upside capped as traders await further updates out of the White House (in-depth details below). Ahead, US ISM Manufacturing.  


• 
  Taking a look at price action; Bitcoin soared from USD 85,029 to a session high of USD 95,152 on Sunday. Into today, the upside has subsided – and currently sits in a relatively tight USD 91,135-94,442 range. As it stands, the digital gold sits just above its 21 DMA. In terms of levels above this, USD 96,155 marks a cluster of support levels in the past; so may act as support on any upside action. Thereafter, its 50- and 100-DMA at USD 97,691 and 97,560. The 14d RSI (49) has jumped from “oversold” territory to “neutral”.


• To just contextualise the recent crypto rout; in the 2015-2017 bull cycle, Bitcoin saw 20-40%+ pullbacks a total of 12 times. In the 2019-2021 bull run, Bitcoin pulled back 20-60%+ a total of 9 times. In the current cycle, there has been a total of 6 pullbacks of worth between 20-30%.
  

Trump Strategic Reserve:

• On Sunday, US President Trump announced on Truth Social that his previously announced Strategic Reserve will include Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA); adding that “I will make sure the U.S. is the Crypto Capital of the World”. Trump, in a post a couple hours later, said that “BTC and ETH, as other valuable Cryptocurrencies, will be the heart of the Reserve. I also love Bitcoin and Ethereum!”.


• 
  Overall the post did not contain much by way of actual key updates (e.g. when/how the fund will be created). Nonetheless, in an immediate reaction to the post, the crypto complex soared; XRP jumped 30%, Cardano jumped 60%; some of the upside has been paring in today’s session.


• 
  What’s next? Donald Trump is set to deliver remarks at a Crypto Summit on March 7th. It will be led by Crypto Czar David Sacks and “will include prominent founders, CEOs, and investors from the crypto industry, as well as members of the president’s Working Group on Digital Assets”, according to a White House Statement. But before that, US President Trump is set to make an "investment announcement" at 13:30 EST / 18:30 GMT today; it is unclear if this is regarding crypto or some other investment.


• Speaking on the US Strategic Reserve, the Coinbase CEO said “Just Bitcoin would probably be the best option - simplest, and clear story as successor to gold”, in a post on X. He did add that a market-weighted crypto index could be an option. (X)


• Interestingly, before Trump’s announcement, an individual bought USD 200mln worth of Ethereum and Bitcoin longs on 50x leverage.

What analysts/banks are saying:

• 
  As part of JPMorgan’s Bitcoin Mining Monthly; analysts note that a greater concentration of mining power within a few major players signal a shift towards a more centralised market structure. In terms of mining revenue, gross profits has slipped around 5% M/M.


• 
  Goldman Sachs as part of their monthly note highlights some main reasons for the recent crypto rout, including; US policy uncertainty, growth concerns and the recent Bybit hack hitting sentiment. On address activity, analysts see Ethereum daily active addresses and average daily new addresses up 11.4% and 50.5% M/M respectively; Bitcoin -3% and -4.8%. Analysts argue that there is could be attributed to “bottom fishing” as traders aim to purchase coins at a discount.

In the news:

• 
  Binance is set to remove several non-MiCA compliant stablecoins for EEA users on March 31st, which include; USDT, FDUSD, TUSD, USDP, DAI, AEUR, UST, USTC, and PAXG, via The Block. (The Block)


• 
  Ahead of Trump’s reserve announcement, global crypto funds saw a record USD 2.9bln in weekly outflows, via The Block. (The Block)


• 
  Metaplanet purchased USD 13.4mln worth of Bitcoin and boosts its holdings to 2,391 Bitcoins, via The Block. (The Block)


• 
  US Crypto Czar Sacks said in a post on X that he sold all of his crypto holdings before the start of the Trump administration, amid fears of a conflict of interest. (X)

Macro: US ISM Manufacturing (Mon), Tariff Expiries (Tue), President Trump State of Union (Tue), US ISM Services (Wed), China Two-Session (Wed/Thu), US NFP (Fri)

• 
  US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (MON): The consensus expects the February ISM manufacturing survey to print 50.8 from 50.9 in January. As a basis of comparison, S&P Globalʼs PMI data series showed Flash US manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 in February (vs 51.2 in January), an 8-month high, while the Manufacturing Output index rose to 53.8 in February (from 51.8), an 11-month high.


• 
  TARIFF DAY (TUE): March 4th will see the fentanyl-related US tariffs take effect against Canada and Mexico, and now with an additional 10% on China. As a recap, Canada and Mexico saw their February 4th tariffs paused for 30 days to pave the way for negotiations, whilst the 10% tariff on China went into effect on that day.


• 
  CHINA TWO-SESSIONS (WED/THU): Chinaʼs Peopleʼs Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) is set to open on March 4th and the National Peopleʼs Congress (NPC) is poised to kick off on March 5th – dubbed as the ‘Two Sessionsʼ. These week-long meetings will outline Chinese policy priorities for the year, with the most focus on Chinaʼs main quantitative targets, particularly on economic growth. These will be delivered by Premier Li at the start of the NPC meeting. Chinaʼs economic growth target is expected to be set at “about 5%” for 2025 (unchanged from 2024), while CPI will likely be lowered to 2% from 3% in 2024, according to a report in Securities Times; many share the same view.


• 
  US JOBS REPORT (FRI): The consensus looks for 133k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in February (vs Januaryʼs 143k, which was likely hit by weather conditions); the January release also saw upward revisions to the November and December data, sending the three month average higher (current 3mth avg. of 237k, 6mth avg. of 178k, and 12mth avg. of 168k). Capital Economics says that survey indicators point to February being a weak month for payrolls growth, noting that S&P Globalʼs composite employment index (in the PMI data) dropped below the 50 “no change” mark for the first time in three months, and the NFIB hiring intentions indicator edged down in January (though CapEco sees some rebound in weather-sensitive sectors). There will be attention on the government payrolls figure, as the new US administration undertakes hiring freezes, contract buyout offers, and mass layoffs; however, CapEco thinks these should have a minimal impact on the February data.

Check out the Newsquawk Research Suite for the full previews for each event

Liquidation data, via Coinglass:

• Bitcoin (BTC) 24h long: USD 105.03mln / 24h short: USD 254.86mln


• Ethereum (ETH) 24h long: USD 91.04mln / 24h short: USD 87.80mln


• Solana (SOL) 24h long: USD 36.81mln / 24h short: USD 41.28mln


• Ripple (XRP) 24h long: USD 44.84mln / 24h short: USD 46.44mln


• Dogecoin (DOGE) 24h long: USD 9.98mln / 24h short: USD 10.92mln

03 Mar 2025 - 14:00- ForexData- Source: Newsquawk