CRYPTO UPDATE: BTC back below USD 100k, AMZN shareholders urge co. to build a BTC reserve

24 Hour Prices: BTC -1.1%, ETH -2.6%, Solana -3.6%

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  Bitcoin is on the backfoot in today’s session, despite a generally positive risk tone sparked by the readout from China’s Politburo meeting (details in the next bullet point). For China more broadly, the region's inflation metrics printed below expectations whilst the PPI figures were a little better-than-feared.


• The meeting noted that China’s fiscal policy is to be more proactive in 2025 and that monetary policy is to be moderately loose, via Xinhau; this marks the first time China have shifted its monetary policy stance since the start of 2011.


• Price action today has seen the digital gold dip from highs of USD 101,271 to a session trough of USD 97,931; as it stands Bitcoin currently holds around the USD 99k mark.


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  In terms of technical levels, the 21 DMA sits in close proximity to today’s worst at around USD 96,926. A resistance level at around USD 101,400 has been tested and failed to be breached in the past couple of days. As for the 14-day RSI, it continues to remain elevated at around the 62.00 mark; a level which has been traversed for just over a week now.


• Looking at alt-coin Ethereum, the coin surged past USD 4k last Friday, but failed to hold gains above the key level; the coin currently trades around USD 3.8k, pressure which seemingly stems from a pullback across the crypto space. As it stands, Ethereum is currently facing support levels at around the USD 3.8k level; should some of the upside return, there is some resistance from early June at around USD 4.08k, and then USD 4.1k from mid-March.


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  REMINDER: Microsoft shareholders will vote on whether the co. should add Bitcoin to its balance sheet on December 10th 2024.
  

What banks/analysts are saying:

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  Fidelity writes that advisors and investors are increasingly evaluating Bitcoin as a potential investment allocation. The papers writes that those with conviction about the digit-golds potential see return enhancements, diversification and inflation hedging opportunities.

In the news:

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  MicroStrategy (MSTR) acquired 21,550 Bitcoins from December 2nd-8th for USD 2.1bln; sells ~5.4mln shares for USD 2.13bln


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  Amazon (AMZN) shareholders are urging the co. to diversify its reserves into Bitcoin to beat inflation and boost shareholder value, via CoinDesk. The proposal adds that “At minimum, Amazon should evaluate the benefits of holding some, even just 5%, of its assets in Bitcoin”. (CoinDesk) As a reminder, Microsoft (MSFT) are set to vote on their Bitcoin consideration proposal on December 10
  


• 
  MicroStrategy (MSTR) - Negative mention in Barron's; the newspaper warned against investing in MicroStrategy, noting its stock price is inflated, driven by its large Bitcoin (BTC) holdings. With the company's market value exceeding its Bitcoin and software business by a significant margin, the stock's premium appears unsustainable, especially if Bitcoin's post-election rally falters.


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  Crypto - Since Donald Trump became president-elect, nearly USD 10bln has flowed into US ETFs that invest directly in Bitcoin (BTC), Bloomberg reports. This surge in investment is driven by optimism that Trump's crypto-friendly policies will fuel market growth. The funds now total approximately USD 113bln, BBG added.


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  Iran’s Finance Minister said the country’s government is planning to regulate cryptocurrencies rather than limit their usage. It aims to eliminate the negative impacts of crypto on the economy and utilise its positive effects. The Finance Minister adds he hopes to see crypto used to increase youth employment and counter US sanctions against the country, via The Block. (The Block)


• 
  A couple of prominent crypto venture capitalists have expressed their scepticism towards crypto-AI projects; they add that it is a particularly risky area and “almost everyone will lose a lot of money”, via The Block. (The Block) AI coins have been a prominent feature in the 2024 bull-runs.


• 
  Czechia has introduced progressive reforms to improve crypto adoption and investment; the new legislation exempts CGT for crypto holdings over three years, via CCN. (CCN)

Macro: Chinese Trade (Tue), Chinese Central Economic Work Conference (Tue-Wed), US CPI (Wed)

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  Chinese Trade (Tue): China will release its trade figures for November which participants will be eyeing to see if there is an improvement from the mixed figures seen in October. In terms of the expectations for the upcoming data, the Trade Balance is seen at a surplus of USD 95.5bln, while exports growth is seen at 8.5% and Imports at 0.3%.


• 
  Chinese Central Economic Work Conference (Tue-Wed): While no major numerical targets are expected (typically set at the Two Sessions), the market will be closely watching for shifts in tone on fiscal and monetary policy heading into next year. The focus will likely be on whether there’s a new emphasis on boosting domestic demand or supporting the property market. Analysts will also be attentive to any changes in rhetoric that could signal a shift toward more aggressive policy support. As a reminder China's Politburo on Monday called for a "proactive" fiscal policy in 2025 and implement moderately loose monetary policy
  


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  US CPI (Wed): The analyst consensus currently expects US consumer prices to rise +0.2% M/M in November, matching October's print, while the core rate of CPI is seen rising +0.3% M/M, again, matching October's print. Wells Fargo says that although some inflationary pressures, such as an overheated labour market, are easing, new challenges to disinflation have arisen, including potential tariffs and tax cuts, and warns that these could make achieving the Fed's 2% inflation target more difficult in the final stages of the inflationary cycle.

Full previews can be found on the Newsquawk Research Suite

Liquidation data, via Coinglass:

• Bitcoin (BTC) 24h Long: USD 72.18mln / 24h Short: USD 29.81mln


• Ethereum (ETH) 24h Long: USD 35.04mln / 24h Short: USD 14.35mln


• Solana (SOL) 24h Long: USD 7.06mln / 24h Short: USD 1.82mln


• Dogecoin (DOGE) 24h Long: USD 11.91mln / 24h Short: USD 4.71mln


• XRP (XRP) 24h Long: USD 5.67mln / 24h Short: USD 3.42mln

09 Dec 2024 - 13:40- ForexData- Source: Newsquawk