CRYPTO UPDATE: Bitcoin treads water into US CPI, ETH tops USD 4.3k

24 Hour Prices:

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  Bitcoin is on a slightly weaker footing today, cooling from the upside seen over the past few days. Strength which has been attributed to Trump’s executive order, which directs the Labour Department to let 401(k)s to hold crypto.


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  In terms of price action today; the digital gold currently resides in a 118,224-119,305 range – towards the bottom end of the prior day’s confines. From a technical perspective, downside levels include the USD 117k mark which has been a very strong line of support in the past; this also coincides with its 21 DMA level. The 14-day RSI (58), resides shy of “overbought” territory.


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  It is worth highlighting Ethereum's recent surge, following the 401(k) related executive order. Currently trading around the USD 4.3k mark, topping the highs made in late December (USD 4.1k). The altcoin is now trading at levels not seen since December 2021; from a technical standpoint, USD 4.3k was a fairly strong support/resistance line, as was USD 4.5k. A confident breach beyond that point, may see a retest of its ATH at USD 4,868.


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  Focus for the day is heavily weighted to US inflation (preview below); a Core M/M figure below expectations of 0.30% will spark a positive reaction across risk-assets, with Goldman Sachs seeing a 0.7% gain in the SPX if the core figure prints below 0.25%.


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  For the remainder of the week, the overarching risk event is on the Trump-Putin meeting. On that, it has been confirmed that Ukrainian President Zelensky will join European leaders and the POTUS on Wednesday afternoon. The Ukrainian President has said he will “not give up land” and has urged European leaders to push back on any US plans to do so. Into the Friday meeting between Trump and Russian President Putin, it is still not confirmed whether Zelensky will be in attendance. Nonetheless, Trump said the upcoming meeting with Putin is a feel-out meeting, and he is going to tell Putin to end the war.

In the news:

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  Coinshares writes that global crypto products returned to net inflows of USD 572mln last week; Ethereum (ETH) surged by USD 268mln; Bitcoin saw inflows of USD 260mln. Coinshares Head of Research Butterfill highlighted that inflows were largely spurred by the government’s announcement to permit digital assets in 401(k) retirement plans. (The Block)


• The SEC has ended a lawsuit against Ripple (XRP); the Co. is to pay a fine of USD 125mln. (Reuters)


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  Strategy (MSTR) purchases another 155 Bitcoins for USD 18mln at an average price of USD 116,401, which takes the co’s total holdings to 628,946. (The Block)


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  Metaplanet purchases another 518 Bitcoin for USD 61mln, taking its total holding to 18,113 bitcoin. (CoinDesk)


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  World Liberty Financial is seeking to raise an additional USD 1.5bln for a publicly traded company which would hold WLFI tokens. (Bloomberg)


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  White House Crypto Chief, Bo Hines, steps down after eight months; during his time, he repealed SEC rules and promoted crypto-positive legislation such as the GENIUS Act. (CCN)


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  US Spot Ethereum ETFs hit USD 1bln daily inflows for the first time. (CoinDesk)


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  El Salvador passes a law which allows investment banks to offer Bitcoin and digital asset products. (Cryptobriefing)

Macro schedule:

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  US CPI (TUE): US July CPI is expected to rise by +0.2% M/M at the headline level (prev. +0.3%), with the annual rate seen rising to 2.8% Y/Y from 2.7%. The core rate of inflation is expected to rise by +0.3% M/M (prev. +0.2%), with the annual rate of core inflation expected to rise to 3.0% Y/Y from 2.9%. Wells Fargo says that the data will bring further signs of higher tariffs pushing up prices.


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  CHINESE ACTIVITY DATA (FRI): There are currently no central expectations for the Chinese activity data, although the trend is expected to show further moderation in economic activity. ING sees industrial production slowing to ~6.2% Y/Y (prev. 6.5%), retail sales easing to 4.6% Y/Y (as the boost from trade-in policies peaks), and fixed asset investment holding near 2.8% Y/Y YTD amid subdued private sector participation.


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  US RETAIL SALES (FRI): Headline retail sales are expected to rise by +0.5% M/M in July (prev. +0.6%), with the ex-autos measure seen cooling to +0.2% M/M (prev. +0.5%). Retail sales in June rose more than expected, partly due to a surprise jump in auto sales.Check out the Newsquawk Research Suite for the full previews for each event
  

Liquidation data, via Coinglass:

• Bitcoin (BTC) 24h long: USD 64.49mln / 24h short: USD 5.55mln


• Ethereum (ETH) 24h long: USD 80.21mln / 24h short: USD 47.05mln


• Solana (SOL) 24h long: USD 20.27mln / 24h short: USD 1.12mln


• Ripple (XRP) 24h long: USD 20.02mln / 24h short: USD 1.35mln


• Dogecoin (DOGE) 24h long: USD 11.54mln / 24h short: USD 1.59mln

12 Aug 2025 - 11:45- ForexData- Source: Newsquawk