CRYPTO UPDATE: Bitcoin edges higher and holds around USD 63k

24 Hour Prices:

• 
  Bitcoin (+1.6%) is firmer today and trading around USD 63k, whilst Ethereum (+1.2%) attempts to test USD 2.5k to the upside. The high for today (USD 63,975) is just shy of the USD 64k mark, but should that level be breached, it could see a test of Tue 1st high at USD 64,122. The RSI climbs just above neutral stance, at around 54.0. 


• Following last week’s hot NFP report, Bitcoin saw two-way price action but was ultimately unmoved by the data. The Dollar-index on the other hand, caught a bid, rising from a 100.17 low to as high as 102.68. The release saw market pricing entirely remove the chance of a 50bps cut at the November confab, with the chance of a 25bps cut now priced in at 90%.
  


• 
  CoinDesk citing Deribit options data, suggests that Bitcoin options expiring on Oct 5 trade at a higher implied volatility compared to Oct 25; this could seemingly be a factor of traders preparing for post-NFP / geopolitical related volatility.

In the news:

• 
  US Presidential candidate Trump leads Harris by 2.5% on Polymarket, following the Trump/Musk rally. (Polymarket)


• 
  Metaplanet (3350 JT) buys an additional USD 6.7mln in Bitcoin, which brings its total holding to around USD 40.6mln (at current prices), according to The Block. (The Block)


• 
  Hong Kong regulator intends to approve more crypto exchange licenses in batches by the end of the year, via The Block.


• 
  The UAE has made Crypto transfers/conversions exempt from VAT, effective Nov 15 2024, via Cryptopolitan.

Macro; China, FOMC Minutes, US CPI

• 
  UBS expects this year’s Chinese stimulus measures may be announced after the National Day holiday; as soon as Tuesday, 8th October. It adds that it may introduce short term fiscal stimulus measures, with a scale of CNH 1.5-2tln.


• 
  FOMC Minutes (Wed): The FOMC cut rates by 50bps, taking the target for the federal funds rate to 4.75-5.00%, more in fitting with money market pricing before the release rather than the analyst consensus of 25bps. There was one dissenter; Governor Bowman opted to vote for a smaller 25bps rate reduction. The Minutes will be watched for any discussions about the pace of rate cuts ahead, and on any potential guidance on the neutral rate.


• 
  US CPI (THU): The consensus looks for headline CPI to rise +0.1% M/M in September (prev. +0.2%), and the core rate is seen cooling to +0.2% M/M (prev. +0.3%). Wells Fargo said a strike among East and Gulf Coast dockworkers poses a near-term upside risk for goods inflation; however, improved retail inventories and soft demand should limit consumer goods price impacts.

Liquidation data, via Coinglass:

• Bitcoin (BTC) 24h Long: USD 14.83mln / 24h Short: USD 11.40mln


• Ethereum (ETH) 24h Long: USD 11.71mln / 24h Short: USD 10.48mln


• Solana (SOL) 24h Long: USD 4.96mln / 24h Short: USD 3.56mln


• XRP (XRP) 24h Long: USD 963.58K / 24h Short: USD 576.69K


• Dogecoin (DOGE) 24h Long: USD 502.63K / 24h Short: USD 1.83mln

07 Oct 2024 - 11:48- ForexData- Source: Newsquawk