CRUDE WRAP: WTI (Q5) SETTLES USD 1.88 HIGHER AT USD 68.45/BBL; BRENT (U5) SETTLES USD 1.72 HIGHER AT USD 70.36/BBL

Analysis details (19:31)

Crude futures held an upward bias throughout the session, supported by Trump's tease of a major Russia statement on Monday. WTI and Brent saw lows of USD 66.50 and 68.55/bbl in the morning before accelerating higher through the day to settle just off the earlier peaks of USD 68.59/bbl and 70.53/bbl, respectively. Prices were underpinned after President Trump announced plans to deliver a “major” statement on Russia on Monday, while the European Commission is reportedly preparing a floating Russian oil price cap as part of the EU’s 18th sanctions package. Separately, OPEC+ officials reportedly haven’t discussed pausing the upcoming output hike, though all options remain on the table according to Kpler. Bloomberg sources previously indicated OPEC+ may halt increases from October, while Saudi Arabia plans to complete a 2.2mln BPD revival by September. Meanwhile, the IEA trimmed its 2025 and 2026 global demand growth forecasts by 20k BPD each, now expecting +700k BPD in 2025 and +720k BPD in 2026. It also raised its 2025 supply growth forecast to +2.1mln BPD. Meanwhile, the macro focus has largely been on trade updates after US President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canada. The Saudi Energy Minister spoke, confirming Saudi Arabia has remained fully compliant with its voluntary OPEC+ target, noting the marketed crude supply in June stood at 9.532mln BPD. However, earlier Bloomberg reports said that Saudi Arabia is asking companies that OPEC uses for independent analysis of oil-production levels to submit a lower figure for the kingdom's June output. Riyadh is reportedly arguing that the standard practice (measuring oil production) was not appropriate for that month, and they should instead adopt a different metric called supply to market. For Russia, Deputy PM Novak said that in August-September, Russia intends to fully compensate for oil produced in excess of the OPEC+ quota. 

11 Jul 2025 - 19:31- ForexGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk