CRUDE WRAP: WTI (M5) SETTLES USD 2.21 LOWER AT 58.21/BBL; BRENT (N5) SETTLES USD 2.22 LOWER AT 61.06/BBL

Analysis details (19:32)

The crude complex was initially pressured due to risk sentiment, but later plunged on reports that Saudi Arabia can withstand prolonged periods of low oil prices. WTI and Brent fell to initial troughs of USD 59.20/bbl and 62.00/bbl, respectively, around the US cash equity open before rebounding off these levels as risk appetite improved in the US. Risk appetite was initially subdued in the wake of some tier 1 US data, which resulted in renewed stagflation fears as there was soft GDP and hot PCE in Q1. In addition, ADP, ahead of payrolls on Friday, also underwhelmed. Moreover, benchmarks cratered and hit fresh lows of USD 57.91/bbl and 60.76/bbl after Reuters sources reported that Saudi officials have briefed allies and industry experts that the Kingdom can sustain a prolonged period of low oil prices. In the geopolitical space, Bloomberg reported that Ukraine is ready to sign US resources deal as early as Wednesday. Thereafter, Reuters sources leaked a Ukraine-US Minerals Deal Draft which suggested 50% of revenue from royalties, production sharing agreement on new natural resources permits and licenses will go into the fund. If the US provides military assistance ahead, the cost will count as a contribution. Note, the deal does not cover Ukraine's energy or port infrastructure. However, the US said it is ready to sign the deal, but Ukraine has made last-minute changes. In Asia, overnight Pakistan's Information Minister said they have credible evidence that India is planning "military aggression" against Pakistan within 24-36 hours. Lastly, and in the weekly EIA data, crude stocks saw an unexpected draw, against Tuesday’s larger-than-anticipated build. Meanwhile, Gasoline drew more than forecasted, in fitting with Tuesday’s metrics, but Distillates saw a surprise build. Overall, crude production was more or less unchanged.

30 Apr 2025 - 19:33- EnergyGeopolitical- Source: Newsquawk