CRUDE WRAP: WTI (J2) SETTLES USD 15.00/BBL LOWER AT 108.70/BBL; BRENT (K2) SETTLES USD 16.84 LOWER AT 111.14/BBL

Analysis details (19:32)

Crude futures had already unwound their Tuesday strength on geopol risk unwinding before a violent crash occurred just after noon NY time amid Ukraine proposing a compromise and rumbles of a shifting OPEC strategy. The downside saw Brent front-month futures fall USD 12/bbl in five minutes, that's larger than any other Dollar decline on record, with lows being made at 105.60/bbl, while WTI hit lows of 103.63/bbl. There was initially little reaction to Ukraine President Zelenskiy's comments about being open to compromises with Russia, but as they gained more traction, the selling built. First gently, then suddenly, with simultaneous comments from Iraq touting its available spare capacity, adding fuel to the earlier (relatively smaller) tumble on UAE calling for a further increase to OPEC production; an OPEC delegate later said the UAE didn't discuss the output proposal with OPEC+ allies. Note in pre-settlement trade the Iraq Oil Minister walked back his comments, saying extra output could harm the market and that the current increases (+400k BPD per month) are enough.  

IRAN: Vienna talks continued, with the Russian ambassador tweeting negotiators are "at the very last stage of diplomatic marathon towards restoration of JCPOA", while the White House said later the US believes it has the same objective as Russia on Iran; follows reports over the weekend that Russia had late demand, holding up the talks. 

EIA INVENTORY: EIA reported a 1.9mnl bbl crude stock draw, more bullish than the expected 0.7mln draw and the private data's 2.6mln build. Distillates drew a chunky 5.2mln bbls (exp. -1.9mln), which was similar to the private data, while Gasoline stocks drew 1.4mln (exp. -2.1mln), which was less than the 2mln indicated in the private data. EIA reported crude production remained unchanged on the week at 11.6mln BPD. Refinery utilisation rose a firm 1.6% (exp. +0.2%; prev +0.3%).

09 Mar 2022 - 19:32- EnergyResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk