Newsquawk Logo
Important
OCTOBER 31, 2023 AT 06:31 AM

[BOJ PRESS CONFERENCE] BoJ Governor Ueda says will patiently continue monetary easing with decided new measures; Will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary; Getting gradually closer to achieving price target

Source
SectionBoJ

POLICY

  • Will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary.
  • BoJ decided to add flexibility to YCC.
  • Today's steps came partly as a result of rising US long-term rates.
  • Today's decision was aimed at making YCC operation more flexible amid extreme high uncertainties around the economy and financial markets.
  • Wanted to tweak YCC before side effects increased, considered FC as part of potential side effects.
  • Possibility remains low for monetary policy to fall behind the curve.
  • Today's decision was partly aimed at preventing financials market volatility, including FX volatility.
  • Don't have preconceived notion of order of exit from YCC or NIRP.
  • Will continue both YCC and NIRP until we can foresee the achievement of inflation target.
  • Long-term neutral rate is an interest theme, and BoJ has made various analyses, but will not elaborate this time.

BONDS

  • Does not see yields rising significantly beyond 1% (Bloomberg)/ Does not think long-term rates will come under pressure to exceed 1%. (Reuters)
  • Possible to conduct additional emergency bond-buying at 10yr yield levels under 1%.
  • One side-effect of fixed-rate purchase operations was volatility in financial markets.
  • Can contain speculative moves in market with flexible market operations.
  • Will allow more flexibility when it comes to non-speculative market moves based on fundamentals.
  • Says practically speaking, it would be difficult for BoJ staff to ascertain whether day-to-day rise in long-term yields in speculative.

FX

  • Important for currencies to move stably reflective fundamentals.
  • Closely working with government and monitoring the situation on FX. 
  • FX could affect policy if it impacts price outlook.
  • Overseas interest rate trends have been dominant factor in recent FX moves.

INFLATION

  • Expects inflation to slow in FY25.
  • Main reason for inflation outlook overshoot vs July are longer-than-expected effects price pass-through and rising crude prices.
  • Not in a situation to foresee sustainable and stable price increases.
  • Will closely scrutinise the economy and price situation by examining wages and prices.
  • Will carefully monitor if wage-price spiral takes hold.
  • Strength of inflation and wages still not sufficient.
  • It's true that the likelihood of inflation outlook's realisation is slightly higher but not in a situation that we can foresee it with full confidence.
  • Getting gradually closer to achieving price target. (Reuters)/Certainty of achieving price target rising a little. (Bloomberg)
  • Will scrutinise effects of government policy on inflation outlook once it is announced.
  • Can anticipate a certain level of wage hikes next year.
  • Next spring's wage talks will be an important factor. 
  • Says there are budding signs that the "norm" of wage price rigidity is changing but still distant from levels considered with 2% inflation.

BROADER ECONOMY

  • Japan's economy is recovering moderately.
Published: 10 / 31 / 2023 / 06:31Updated: 01 / 06 / 2024 / 14:41