Important
OCTOBER 31, 2023 AT 06:31 AM[BOJ PRESS CONFERENCE] BoJ Governor Ueda says will patiently continue monetary easing with decided new measures; Will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary; Getting gradually closer to achieving price target
Source
SectionBoJ
POLICY
- Will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if necessary.
- BoJ decided to add flexibility to YCC.
- Today's steps came partly as a result of rising US long-term rates.
- Today's decision was aimed at making YCC operation more flexible amid extreme high uncertainties around the economy and financial markets.
- Wanted to tweak YCC before side effects increased, considered FC as part of potential side effects.
- Possibility remains low for monetary policy to fall behind the curve.
- Today's decision was partly aimed at preventing financials market volatility, including FX volatility.
- Don't have preconceived notion of order of exit from YCC or NIRP.
- Will continue both YCC and NIRP until we can foresee the achievement of inflation target.
- Long-term neutral rate is an interest theme, and BoJ has made various analyses, but will not elaborate this time.
BONDS
- Does not see yields rising significantly beyond 1% (Bloomberg)/ Does not think long-term rates will come under pressure to exceed 1%. (Reuters)
- Possible to conduct additional emergency bond-buying at 10yr yield levels under 1%.
- One side-effect of fixed-rate purchase operations was volatility in financial markets.
- Can contain speculative moves in market with flexible market operations.
- Will allow more flexibility when it comes to non-speculative market moves based on fundamentals.
- Says practically speaking, it would be difficult for BoJ staff to ascertain whether day-to-day rise in long-term yields in speculative.
FX
- Important for currencies to move stably reflective fundamentals.
- Closely working with government and monitoring the situation on FX.
- FX could affect policy if it impacts price outlook.
- Overseas interest rate trends have been dominant factor in recent FX moves.
INFLATION
- Expects inflation to slow in FY25.
- Main reason for inflation outlook overshoot vs July are longer-than-expected effects price pass-through and rising crude prices.
- Not in a situation to foresee sustainable and stable price increases.
- Will closely scrutinise the economy and price situation by examining wages and prices.
- Will carefully monitor if wage-price spiral takes hold.
- Strength of inflation and wages still not sufficient.
- It's true that the likelihood of inflation outlook's realisation is slightly higher but not in a situation that we can foresee it with full confidence.
- Getting gradually closer to achieving price target. (Reuters)/Certainty of achieving price target rising a little. (Bloomberg)
- Will scrutinise effects of government policy on inflation outlook once it is announced.
- Can anticipate a certain level of wage hikes next year.
- Next spring's wage talks will be an important factor.
- Says there are budding signs that the "norm" of wage price rigidity is changing but still distant from levels considered with 2% inflation.
BROADER ECONOMY
- Japan's economy is recovering moderately.