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BoJ Governor Ueda (post-meeting press conference) says must patiently continue monetary easing, will not hesitate to ease policy further as needed

Important
SourceNewsquawk
SectionBoJ

YIELD CURVE CONTROL:

  • Appropriate to enhance sustainability of easing.
  • Today's decision was aimed at making YCC policy more sustainable.
  • Control of yields may impact volatility.
  • Long-term rates could move beyond the 0.5% cap.
  • Will conduct consecutive fixed rate purchases if long-term yields exceed 1.0% to curb the yield jump.
  • Not expecting long-term yield to rise to 1.0%, but will consider appropriate steps if interest rates breach 1.0%.
  • Will respond to the speed and level of long-term rates if they move beyond 0.5%.
  • Will fall behind the curve if BoJ tries to respond to excessive interest rate rise at the time.
  • Have expanded room for ability to deal with upward move in interest rates.
  • BoJ created the 0.5-1.0% frame in addition to the +/- 0.5% to respond to future risks.
  • Says +/- 0.5% is appropriate for longer-term yield level under current economic and price trends.
  • Says 1.0% is defined as a 'just-in-case cap'.
  • BoJ wants markets to determine longer-term rates, but there should be limits.
  • Absolute YCC at 0.5% could have enhanced both effects and side-effects of YCC.
  • Cannot say whether the BoJ's JGB buying would decrease due to today's decisions.

INFLATION:

  • Stable inflation with wage growth not seen yet.
  • Signs of change are emerging from companies' price-setting behaviour.
  • There is still distance to achieve 2% inflation target; no chanfe to judgement that achieving 2% inflation goal is distant.
  • Drastic changes to FY23 price outlook suggests the outlook in April was possibly underestimated.
  • Ueda says he is not confident about the rebound in prices. 
  • Downside risks to prices are not negligible - weaker global economy and China pose not so optimistic outlook.
  • 2% inflation has already been achieved for some time, but BoJ is not confident about the future rebound, so decided to maintain monetary easing.
  • Jump in FY price outlook means that there has been some progress towards inflation goals.
  • Policy tweak is possible even if there are no major upward revisions to 24-25 price outlook if the BoJ's confidence improves.

RATES:

  • There is still some distance until rate hike from negative short-term interest rates.

FOREX:

  • Says BoJ is not targeting FX levels.
  • Currency market volatility included as target in today's measures. 

ECONOMY:

  • Says economic uncertainty very high.
  • Will flexibly respond to uncertainties in the economy.
  • If risks materialise, it would be too late to respond.

GENERAL MARKET REMARKS:

  • Market is calming down relatively.
  • Expectations for US economy to achieve soft-landing have been rising.
  • Closely watching rising real estate markets.

STANCE:

  • It is appropriate to maintain strong monetary easing.
  • Will not hesitate to ease policy further as needed.
  • When asked if the BoJ's policy was biased towards tightening, Ueda said this was not the case.
  • Says today's decision to enhance flexibility is not that different to a change in policy.
  • Not aiming for policy normalisation, rather making YCC more sustainable.
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