[ANAYLSIS] UK PM Johnson potential no-confidence vote?

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  Summary: Reports indicate that we may be nearing the threshold (54 letters into the 1922 Committee) to trigger a no-confidence vote against the Conservative Party leader PM Johnson. The reports have sparked pushback from those loyal to the PM and caused Johnson himself to work on dissuading the rebels from crimping his tenure. However, BBC’s Kuenssberg believes the majority of MPs are waiting for the Sue Gray report, which is likely to be presented next week. While attainment of the 54-letter threshold is a real possibility, a successful vote to remove Johnson (requires an overall majority), is less so; particularly as it is far from clear who would win in a Tory leadership contest. Interestingly, Politico highlights some suggestions that Chancellor Sunak does not believe now is the correct time for a challenge. A view that may be shared among his colleagues given the expected difficulties in navigating the transition from the pandemic over the next few months and ahead of the upcoming local elections in May.


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  1922 Committee/Process Overview: The 1922 Committee overseas the election of party leaders and any no-confidence votes in the current Conservative Party leader. In order to trigger a vote of no-confidence 15% of MPs, in this case 54, are required to write to Chairman Brady asking for a vote to occur. If the 54 letter threshold is met then there will, according to Playbook, be a vote this week or possibly next week following the publication of the Sue Gray report. For the vote itself, a majority of elected Conservative MPs i.e. 181 is required to remove him as Conservative Party leader and by extension PM. Note, no-confidence votes have historically occurred in close proximity to the 1922 Committee letter threshold being attained. Following the removal of Johnson as Tory-leader/PM there will be a leadership vote to determine his replacement, during this process Johnson is expected to remain in position, though he is not obligated to do so. On the flip side, if a vote of no-confidence is called then the PM will be immune from this process for a one-year period; hence the reported desire amongst most MPs to wait for the Sue Gray report.


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  ‘Pork Pie plot’ aka 1922 Committee Letters: The latest bout of outrage against PM Johnson has been sparked by the allegations of social/work-events at Downing Street and particularly the PM’s repeated claim that he was not aware of any breach in rules. Given the multiple accusations, an inquiry has been commissioned led by Sue Gray with the primary purpose of determining if COVID-related guidance was adhered to. There is no set date for the report to arise, and comparable ones have taken multiple months; however, the general view is that it will be made available in the next few weeks. On its findings, the Guardian writes that “… unless the report says something staggeringly good, we will have a challenge.”. Separately, allegations are now emerging that Johnson did not isolate correctly when he had COVID in March 2020, a claim that will undoubtedly stoke the situation further. In light of this, and other bruising’s the PM has weathered during the COVID period, around 20 ‘red wall’ Conservative MPs are prepared to submit letters of no-confidence, prompting a senior backbencher cited by Sky News to remark that they are close to the 54 threshold.


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  ‘Save Big Dog’ aka Reclaim Conservative Support: Following the reports of ‘red wall’ MPs looking to submit no-confidence votes, government sources loyal to the PM have pushed back on such action and Johnson himself was seemingly working late yesterday in an attempt to dissuade rebels from such action, according to Sky News. Today, PM Johnson is to hold a cabinet meeting to review the latest COVID data and associated Plan B measures, a statement on the situation is due after PMQs – which will be another heated and closely watched outing for the PM. Sources in recent sessions have suggested that all measures are set to be removed around January 26th. While the removal of restrictions, as limited as they are, is likely justified by the Omicron variant proving to be mild, it will no doubt be used as an attempt to shift the narrative and provide Johnson with some breathing space.


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  Potential Replacement: The main contenders are Chancellor Sunak and Foreign Minister Truss; although, as mentioned, Sunak does not believe now is the correct moment for this and both members have remained loyal to the PM amidst the ongoing scandal. Additionally, familiar candidates and notable party members such as Gove, Hunt, Zahawi and Mordaunt to name a few may elect to put themselves forward, prolonging and muddying the process. As a reminder, a leadership contest takes place in two stages with an initial shortlisting of candidates eliminated via sequential knockout rounds until two candidates remain. Thereafter, broader party membership is balloted on their preference.

19 Jan 2022 - 08:32- EquitiesResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk