[ANALYSIS] Russia announces partial mobilisation and threatens the West

Analysis details (09:05)

THE LATEST: Russian President Putin, in his televised speech to the nation this morning, announced that partial mobilisation will begin today (September 21st) whilst threatening the west with “All means of destruction, including nuclear ones”, and warned that this is not a bluff. The Russian Defence Minister Shoigu was interviewed in the minutes after Putin and suggested Russia is not fighting just against Ukraine, but NATO and the collective West.

ANNEXATION: The speeches by the Russian President and Defense Minister followed yesterday’s announcement that the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk (LPR), Donetsk (DPR), Kherson, and Zaporozhye (Zaporizhzhia) will conduct referendums to join Russia, with the polls to take place between September 23rd-27th. These regions account for around 15% of Ukrainian territory. The relevance of this is that Moscow will see fighting in these regions as attacks on “Russian territory”, and thus paves the way for a potential military escalation, and justifies the use of weapons of mass destruction, with nuclear weapons not ruled out. A poll cited by Russian news outlet Sputnik suggested that the “majority of people in DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions would like to join Russia”.


REACTIONS: The West is yet to collectively reply to Putin’s speech, eyes are on whether the West is deterred by Putin’s mobilisation approach.

MARKET REACTION: In the 30-minutes between Russian President Putin’s address and the commencement of the commentary from Defence Minister Shoigu a pronounced risk-off reaction has been seen alongside a substantial bid in the crude complex. A reaction that is seemingly driven by the (expected) announcement of a partial military mobilisation alongside Putin explicitly mentioning a nuclear response in the scenario of a threat to the territorial integrity of Russia. Stocks sold off (defence stocks caught a bid), haven bids were seen in the USD (EUR sold off), bonds, and spot gold, whilst oil futures also caught a bid on the escalating geopolitical tensions. 


21 Sep 2022 - 09:05- Research Sheet- Source: Newsquawk

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