[ANALYSIS] President Trump COVID-19 positive; isolation guidelines & focus points

• This morning (October 2nd) President Trump tweeted that himself and the First Lady have tested positive for COVID-19. Following Hope Hicks, who is one of the President’s closest aides, testing positive yesterday. Regarding any isolation period for the President, the White House Physician’s statement is dated from October 1st and as such it is likely prudent to assume the isolation period will commence from this date and not October 2nd when the President tweeted the news.


• In terms of what we know thus far, the Physician’s statement says that the President & First Lady are “both well at this time, and they plan to remain at home within the White House during their convalescence”. Similar remarks have been outlined from the First Lady as well. Therefore, at this stage there is no indication that the President is suffering from any particularly severe symptoms, or any symptoms at all for that matter, from the virus; as such, the assumption is that the President will continue with his duties and that the election campaign will also continue – although, the assumption is that the President will no longer be able to attend in-person rallies/events for the isolation period.


• Isolation guidelines in the US are provided by the Centre for Disease Control (CDC), who outline 3 scenarios. Firstly, a positive test but no symptoms would guide the individual to isolate for a period of 10-days after receiving the positive test (equating to October 11th). Secondly, in the event that symptoms develop isolation can stop when three conditions are met: 10-days since symptoms first appeared, 24 hours with no fever without using fever-reducing medication and when other symptoms are improving – note, other symptoms in this context does not include loss of taste/smell. The timeline in this scenario is not currently possible to determine as no symptoms have been reported from the President. Finally, if the President became severely ill then he may need to isolate for longer than 10-days and as many as 20-days after the onset of symptoms; again, given symptoms are the determining factor this timeline cannot be determined but as a guide 20-days from the positive test would equate to October 21st. As it stands, the 10-day isolation period appears to be the most applicable one to the President but as mentioned this is only a guideline from the CDC and would be contingent on those affected choosing to adhere to the advice.


• Schedule-wise, the most pressing events are the next two Presidential debates which are scheduled for October 15th and 22nd. Taking the 10-day isolation guideline the President would be able to partake in both events; but, as outlined above, this would be contingent on symptoms not developing at which point the guidelines would then adjust from the onset of symptoms.


• While the next steps for both the Presidency and election campaign could, in some scenarios, become somewhat complicated and possibly subject to legal nuances the limited information available at present means such adverse scenarios remain speculative. Therefore, focus for now will be on the progression of the President’s health and particularly if he does develop symptoms given the associated isolation impacts and as he resides in several COVID-19 risk categories. Alongside the COVID-19 test results for officials on both sides of the political spectrum that have been around him recently – particularly US VP Pence, Democratic Candidate Biden & Democratic VP Candidate Harris.


• From a policy and optics perspective, this update could make it more difficult for areas of the US that are rolling back COVID-19 restrictions to continue to do so if it impacts on the public’s fear over the spread of the virus. This could ultimately have some follow-through to US stimulus talks, however, discussions remain gridlocked and the timeline for getting a deal agreed before the election is very narrow. At this stage, speculation on what this could mean for the Presidential election race will largely depend on how the virus impact’s the President’s health and therefore some desks might caution against making firm conclusions or hasty judgements at this stage.

02 Oct 2020 - 08:35- Research Sheet- Source: Newsquawk