[ANALYSIS] NATO member Poland sends more troops to its border with Belarus

Analysis details (07:15)

THE LATEST

• NATO member Poland is sending more troops and combat helicopters to its border with Belarus after reports yesterday, citing witnesses in the Polish village of Bialowieza, suggested that two Belarusian helicopters flew over houses at a low altitude.


• The Polish military initially denied any border violation, but after further review, they acknowledged that the intrusion did occur, noting that it happened "at a very low height," making it difficult to detect by radar systems.


• Poland later described the event as a violation of its airspace by Belarus and the Foreign Ministry called on Belarus to immediately explain the incident.


• Belarus denied the airspace violation and accused Poland of fabricating the allegations as a pretext to justify a build-up of troops at the border.


• Poland’s Defence Ministry said it has informed NATO of the incident.

BACKGROUND

• Poland’s PM said on Saturday that over 100 mercenaries from the Russian-linked Wagner group have moved close to the Poland-Belarus border, whilst suggesting the proximity of Wagner group mercenaries to the Suwalki Gap, a strategic stretch of Polish territory between Belarus and Kaliningrad (Russian territory), has added to the security worries.


• Fears concerning the Wagner group grew in Poland after the mercenaries arrived in Belarus following the group's short-lived rebellion in Russia earlier in the summer.


• Lithuania's President also warned that the Wagner group might conduct "various provocations" across the border.


• The Poland-Belarus border has been tense for years, especially after large numbers of immigrants from the Middle East and Africa began arriving. Belarus's decision to send migrants across the Polish and Baltic borders in 2020 escalated tensions with the EU.

NATO TREATIES:

ARTICLE 4

• Invoking the article is a significant step in intensifying discussions between members, but it does not guarantee NATO will take action.


• Discussions will then occur within the alliance on whether the threat exists and how to counter it.


• Consultations continue until a unanimous decision is reached - there is no voting within the alliance.

ARTICLE 5:

• Also known as “Collective defence”, means that an attack against one ally is considered an attack against all allies.


• If Moscow is blamed for the blast, there is a non-zero chance that Article 5 is invoked which could lead to a potential military response by NATO.


• Article 5 was only once invoked following the 9/11 attacks.

MAP OF THE REPORTED AIRSPACE VIOLATION:

Via local press Visegrád 24 

02 Aug 2023 - 07:15- EquitiesResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk