[ANALYSIS] Middle Eastern tensions: The long and the short of it (Rolling Headline)

MAIN POINTS

IRAN’S MISSILE ATTACK ON ISRAEL: Iran's IRGC launched nearly 200 missiles towards Israel, targeting military bases and civilians. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they targeted three Israeli military bases in a missile attack and used hypersonic 'Fattah' missiles in the Israeli attack, according to state TV. The attack was in retaliation for the killing of Hamas Chief Haniyeh, Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah and IRGC Commander Nilforousha.

ISRAEL’S DEFENSE: Israeli air defences, supported by the US, intercepted a significant number of missiles. Israeli military reported no major injuries, although minor injuries and a Palestinian fatality were reported. The UK was also involved in an operation to shoot down missiles fired by Iran at Israel.

ISRAEL’S PLANNED RETALIATION: Israel announced it would respond "at the right time" and might target Iranian oil facilities. PM Netanyahu and Israel’s UN envoy warned that Iran would face severe consequences.

NETANYAHU'S SECURITY CONSULTATION: "After Israel security cabinet meet: Israel is expected to respond 'harsh' against Iran, with the possibility of targeting strategic sites in Iran"; according to Kann's Stein.

ESCALATION THREATS: Iran warned of further, more severe retaliation if Israel or its backers respond militarily. Iran justified its actions as self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter and stated it would not escalate unless provoked further by Israel or its allies.

SITUATION IN LEBANON

HEZBOLLAH: Hezbollah in Lebanon launched attacks on Israeli artillery, with heavy fighting reported in southern Lebanon. Israeli military also struck striking Hezbollah targets in Beirut.

WIDENING GROUND OPERATION: 

• Israeli military says regular infantry and armoured units are joining the ground operation in Lebanon.


• "Israeli tanks near the border fence inside southern Lebanon", according to Al Arabiya.


• "Lebanese media: Israeli army advances towards a Lebanese army checkpoint in Al-Adaisseh, southern Lebanon", according to Sky News Arabia


• Lebanese Army says "an Israeli enemy force crossed the Blue Line inside our territory in Khirbet Yaroun and the Adaisseh Gate, then withdrew", according to Al Jazeera. NOTE: Any unauthorized crossing of the Blue Line by land or by air from any side constitutes a violation of Security Council resolution 1701.
  

OTHERS

YEMENI HOUTHI: Yemeni Houthis says they targeted military posts deep inside Israel with "Quds 5" rockets and will not hesitate in broadening operations against Israel, adding that continuous US and UK support to Israel will put their interests under fire.   

IRAQI RESISTANCE: Pro-Iran Iraqi militias resistance groups threatened US bases in Iraq.

DESKS' THOUGHTS

RANE: 

• "With Israeli casualties looking limited, Israel will most likely respond to Iran's attack by striking a small number of Iranian targets"


• "In likely only a single round, the IDF could strike select targets around Iran's nuclear, energy, missile/drone, and/other military-industrial sectors in limited quantities. This would limit, but not eliminate, the immediate threat of full-scale regional war, as even targeted attacks could still trigger another round of direct Iranian retaliation."


• "But if Israel wants a stronger retaliation, it may conduct strikes designed to severely damage Iran's nuclear program, energy sector, missile and drone program, which would increase the likelihood of Iran responding in kind."


• "Now that the taboo has been broken and drivers for more aggressive action appear set to continue for the foreseeable future, more sporadic exchanges between the two countries are on the table."

TANKER TRACKERS

• "If Israel decides to retaliate by striking at Iran’s oil infrastructure, then the most logical target would be the 111 year old Abadan Refinery across the Shatt Al-Arab River bordering between southern Iraq and Iran. This single refinery accounts for roughly a quarter of Iran’s daily domestic fuel supply."


• Striking Iran's export terminal would not be a good idea as oil prices would risk entering triple-digits."That said, incapacitating Iran’s (mostly) unused oil terminals in the south of the country (in and around Hormuzgan province) would delay Iran’s plans of having a Plan B outlet in case Iran ever entertains the idea of closing the Strait of Hormuz."


• "Closing the strait would only upset Iran’s largest customer, China. If China is unable to import oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, then Iran will be in a world of pain. Iran is currently exporting as much oil to China as Saudi Arabia."

02 Oct 2024 - 11:35- EquitiesResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk