US FX WRAP: Dollar sold to benefit of global peers as Kiwi also sees hawkish RBNZ tailwinds

Analysis details (21:10)

The dollar was significantly weaker on Wednesday, benefiting global peers, as a US-Iran ceasefire dominated trading as expected. While details of the agreement appear inconsistent between the two sides, with Iran saying the United States and Israel had already broken the ceasefire after Lebanon was hit, the broader ceasefire theme drove price action. Elsewhere in the US, the FOMC minutes validated the hawkish hold but showed debate over two-sided risks to rates in response to war, as the committee reiterated that the Fed remained in a good position to wait and see. 

G10 FX was firmer across the board, benefiting from heavy dollar selling after the ceasefire announcement. The kiwi was the clear outperformer, with NZD/USD hitting a peak of 0.5859, helped by a secondary tailwind from hawkish RBNZ remarks. In the RBNZ's post-meeting press conference, Governor Breman said the MPC had discussed the possibility of raising rates at the April and May meetings, adding that the "frequency of rate hikes could be every meeting or every second meeting." Other G10 currencies benefited from the familiar themes, while the Loonie still rose against the dollar but was among the relative underperformers as oil prices were shunned. Highlighting the scale of the moves, cable traded between 1.3281-3485, USD/JPY between 157.88-159.75, and EUR/USD topped out at 1.1722 against an earlier trough of 1.1588.

In EMFX, ING wrote that news of a US-Iran ceasefire had pushed the CNY higher, breaking through its previous forecast band and prompting it to set a new forecast band of 6.70-7.05, which had previously been its bullish scenario for the CNY this year.

08 Apr 2026 - 21:10- ForexUS Research- Source: Newsquawk