UK CPI YY* (Mar) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.8%)

ONS

• "Inflation eased again in March, driven by a variety of factors including falling fuel prices and unchanged food costs compared with the price rises we saw this time last year. The only significant offset came from the price of clothes, which rose strongly this month, following the unusual decrease in February"

Reaction details (07:07)

• Very modest pressure was seen in GBP with GBP/USD pulling back from the 1.3288 session high to around 1.3266. Bunds lifted by around 10 ticks to a 131.44 session high.

BoE Pricing 

• May -21.5bps (prev. -19.88bps)


• Jun -36.9bps (prev. -32.59bps)


• Aug -50.5bps (prev. -48.35bps)


• Sep -66.1bps (prev. -60.15bps)


• Nov -78.2bps (prev. -74.11bps)


• Dec -85.9bps (prev. -84.3bps)

Analysis details (07:05)

• A cooler-than-expected series which will be welcomed by Threadneedle St. and may nudge the odds of a 25bps move in May up from the c. 80% pre-release implied probability. However, the data is already somewhat stale given the significant trade/tariff updates that have occurred in recent days and weeks.

16 Apr 2025 - 07:00- Fixed IncomeData- Source: Reuters