PRIMER: US tax bill vote

- The House Rules Committee meets on Monday evening to discuss the plan, the House is expected to vote on Tuesday and the Senate will have its final say on either Tuesday or Wednesday.

- Senator John McCain is not planning on casting his vote on the Republican tax overhaul. He is returning home for Christmas after having spent a few days in hospital due to side-effects caused by his brain cancer treatment. His wife confirmed that McCain will be back if his vote is needed, although according to John Cornyn his absence does not seem to threaten the tax bill.

- Republican Thad Cochran is also ill and Senator Susan Collins has not made a final decision on the tax overhaul.

- Republican aides have suggested that Senators Lee, Collins and Flake will be a yes, while Senator Corker has moved to the yes camp after voting no in the previous stage. The over-riding feeling seems to be that the Republicans have the votes to get the bill onto President Trump's desk later this week, even if it has to be forced through via the tie-breaking vote of Vice President Mike Pence.

To summarise (via CNN):

- If Senator McCain is absent and the above three senators vote yes, Republicans will have 51 "yes" votes. The bill passes.

- If Senator Cochran, who has also been ill, joins McCain in missing the vote, and the above three senators vote for the bill, Republicans have 50 votes and the bill passes.

- If McCain is absent, Cochran is in attendance, and say, Collins votes "no," Republicans have 50 votes and the bill passes.

- If McCain and Cochran are absent, and one of the above three senators vote "no," Republicans would be in a 49-49 situation - in which Vice President Mike Pence would cast the tie-breaking vote and the bill passes.

18 Dec 2017 - 19:38- Forex- Source: RANsquawk

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