Newsquawk US Election Update – 31st October: Election day nears, with appearances ramped up

Analysis details (12:59)

• Election night gets closer, and as the race remains exceedingly close Harris and Trump both continuing to take pot shots at each other to attempt to gain the lasting upper band.


• Neither side have been lacking in controversies, with a comedian speaking at a Trump rally calling Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage”, while President Biden appeared to call supporters of Donald Trump "garbage". Following this, Trump appeared at his latest rally in a garbage truck driver uniform.


• Nonetheless, as the race remains close the campaign travel from both Harris and Trump will be limited to fewer than 10 states from here on out as candidates attempt to gain any undecided voters. Within these states, the three “blue wall” states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin) are likely to be at the top of the travel list, whereby the former two have dominated the story for months. As a reminder though, Wisconsin was the closest of the three states in 2020, when Biden won it by about 21k votes.


• In addition, whilst there have been faux-paus abundant, from both sides, there was a one from House Speaker Johnson who has been hinting for the past week that he is preparing a post-election surprise, a “massive reform” of Obamacare. Desks note this could be a major gaffe from the GOP since Obamacare polls extremely well.


• As illustrated below, betting markets continue to have Trump way ahead, while in swing states he is also polling much better, with Harris only having a very marginal lead in Nevada and Wisconsin, with a slightly bigger gap in Michigan, while Trump leads in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia are all bigger than any of Harris’ leads with Pennsylvania marginally in Trump’s favour, according to RCP’s averages.

EARLY VOTING:

• As of Thursday morning, according to a tally by the Election Lab at the University of Florida, more than 60.4mln Americans had already voted in early in-person voting or via mail-in ballots.

NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL POLLS

• 
  RCP Average: Trump +0.4 (prev. Trump +0.4 D/D).


• 
  538: Harris +1.4 (prev. +1.4).


• 
  Nate Silver: Harris +1.1 (prev. +1.2).


• 
  PredictIt: Harris USD 0.47 vs. Trump USD 0.57 (prev. 0.47 vs. 0.58).


• 
  Polymarket: Harris 35% vs. Trump 65% (prev. 33% vs. 67%).

SWING STATES:

• 
  Arizona (AZ): Trump +2.2 (prev. +2.2 D/D); Trump +2.3 (Trump extends his lead by 0.3 W/W, Trump extends his lead by 1 M/M). (11 electoral college votes)
  


• 
  Nevada (NV): Harris +0.1 (prev. +0.1); Harris +0.1 (Trump trims her lead by 0.3 W/W, Trump trims her lead by 1.7 M/M). (6 electoral college votes)
  


• 
  Wisconsin (WI): Harris +0.8 (prev. +0.4); Harris +0.7 (Unchanged W/W; Trump trims her lead by 1.1 M/M). (10 electoral college votes)
  


• 
  Michigan (MI): Harris +1.0 (prev. +0.8); Harris +1.1 (Harris extends her lead by 0.4 W/W; Trump trims her lead by 0.7 M/M). (15 electoral college votes)
  


• 
  Pennsylvania (PA): Trump +0.4 (prev. +0.2); Trump +0.6 (Trump extends his lead by 0.6 W/W; Trump trimmed, and then extended, his lead by 1.7 M/M). (19 electoral college votes)
  


• 
  North Carolina (NC): Trump +1.1 (prev. +1.0); Trump +1.1 (Trump extends his lead by 0.2 W/W; Trump extends his lead by 0.8 M/M). (16 electoral college votes)
  


• 
  Georgia (GA): Trump +1.8 (prev. +1.8); Trump +1.9 (Trump extends his lead by 0.4 W/W; Trump extends his lead by 1 M/M). (16 electoral college votes)
  


• D/D via 538 averages; W/W and M/M via Nate Silver

Note, Newsquawk US Election Guide will be out later today.

31 Oct 2024 - 12:59- MetalsResearch Sheet- Source: Newsquawk