Daily US Equity Opening News - MRVL surges on outlook, Celestial acquisition; CRWD slips after earnings

TODAY'S AGENDA:

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  US INDEX FUTURES: ES +0.3%, NQ +0.3%, YM +0.3%, RUT +0.5%


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  DAY AHEAD: In the US, September industrial production is expected to be flat M/M after 0.1%, while manufacturing output is forecast to rise 0.1% M/M after 0.2%. The headline ISM Services PMI is seen easing to 52.1 from 52.4. Today’s speakers include ECB President Lagarde and the BoE’s Mann. In energy, weekly API data on Tuesday reportedly showed a surprise crude build of 2.5mln bbls (exp. -0.8mln), a 0.1mln bbl draw at Cushing, a larger-than-expected distillate build of 2.9mln bbls (exp. 0.7mln), and a gasoline build of 3.1mln bbls (exp. 1.5mln). The more closely watched EIA report is due later today. Notable earnings today include Salesforce (CRM), Snowflake (SNOW), and PVH (PVH). Elsewhere, EU ambassadors will meet at 17:45GMT/12:45EST to discuss using frozen Russian assets for a Ukraine reparation loan; diplomats say Commission President von der Leyen plans to invoke Article 122 on “solidarity in economic emergencies”, which could extend the sanctions renewal period to three years and bypass unanimity, Politico reports. The Trump administration on Wednesday plans to weaken Biden-era fuel efficiency standards set in June 2024, affecting Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (STLA). Aimed at reducing electric vehicle promotion, the change challenges rules projected to save USD 23bln and cut 710mln metric tons of emissions by 2050.


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  BROKER MOVES: VRTX upgraded at Morgan Stanley, REGN downgraded; ORCL initiated at Wells Fargo. For the full list, click here.
  


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  MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: MRVL, CRWD, DLTR, PSTG, AEO, ACHC, BOX, ORCL, UBER, REGN. For the full list, click here.
  


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  US DAILY CONFERENCE CALENDAR: Healthcare, Retail, Industrial and Tech conferences. For the full list, click here.
  


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  ISM SERVICES (15:00GMT/10:00EST): The headline ISM Services PMI is seen easing to 52.1 from 52.4. As a basis for comparison, S&P Global's PMI data showed the headline services PMI rising to 55.0 (from 54.8), a four-month high. Services reported the strongest output gain since July, and the largest rise in new business so far this year, it said. Input costs increased at the fastest rate since January 2023, driven largely by tariffs and higher wage rates, and selling price inflation reaccelerated. Service-sector job creation remained modest and slower than in October, constrained by cost-related budget pressures and a focus on efficiency. Business expectations hit an 11-month high, supported by reduced political concerns and the end of the government shutdown.

NEWS:

TECH

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  AI Regulation - A coalition of tech companies and the White House’s AI chief failed to convince lawmakers to use a defence bill to block state AI regulations. House Majority Leader Scalise said the bill “wasn’t the best place” for such a measure, though other options may be explored.


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  Marvell Technology (MRVL) - MRVL shares rose in extended trading on its upbeat outlook for data-centre growth that exceeded analysts’ expectations and came without contributions from its newly announced Celestial AI acquisition. Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.76 (exp. 0.74), Revenue 2.075bln (exp. 2.06bln). Confirmed recent reports that it will buy Celestial AI for USD 3.25bln; expects meaningful revenue contributions from Celestial to begin in H2 2028. Q4 adj. EPS seen at 0.79 (exp. 0.77), and Q4 revenue at 2.2bln (exp. 2.15bln); FY revenue growth forecasted to exceed 40%. Exec said data centre revenue growth view for next year is now higher than prior expectations.


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  CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) - CRWD shares slipped in extended trading despite lifting annual guidance, citing resilient demand for its expanding AI-enabled cybersecurity portfolio. Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.96 (exp. 0.94), Revenue 1.23bln (exp. 1.21bln), adj. net income 245.4mln (exp. 240.7mln). Reported record net new ARR of 265mln, up 73% Y/Y, with ending ARR 4.92bln, up 23% Y/Y. Sees Q4 adj. EPS at 1.09-1.11 (exp. 1.08), and Q4 revenue of USD 1.29-1.30bln (exp. 1.29bln). For the FY, sees adj. EPS between 3.70-3.72 (exp. 3.67), and revenue of 4.797-4.807bln (exp. 4.78bln).


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  Microchip (MCHP) - Narrowed its Q3 adj. EPS view to USD 0.40 (exp. 0.37), with revenue now expected at the high end of the prior USD 1.11–1.15bln range, implying around +12% Y/Y and around +1% sequential growth (vs previously anticipated sequential decline). Management notes stronger-than-expected performance through the first two months of the quarter, with bookings and backlog improving into the March 2026 quarter, and highlights progress on its recovery plan, including lower inventories and improving adj. margins and EPS.


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  Anthropic - Anthropic hired Wilson Sonsini to prepare for an IPO that could come in 2026, while discussing the possibility with investment banks, FT reports. Anthropic has not fully decided whether to go public. The start-up, valued between USD 300-350bln, has secured multibillion-dollar backing from Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and NVIDIA (NVDA).


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  OpenAI - Announced that they are fully operational and not aware of any issues affecting their systems after reports that ChatGPT is seeing elevated errors for business and enterprise use.


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  Smartphones in India - India said a previously mandatory phone application can now be deleted following public backlash. The Sanchar Saathi app had drawn criticism, prompting authorities to clarify that users are not required to keep it installed.


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  Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) - Began 2.5D packaging tests this month on NVIDIA-bound HBM4 final samples, marking the last step before potential commercialisation, with clarity expected in early next year’s first quarter, ZD Net reports. SK Hynix (HXSCL) has also been refining samples and will continue testing into early next year, while NVIDIA's (NVDA) official HBM4 qualification schedule runs until the end of that quarter.


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  Oracle (ORCL) - A credit-risk gauge on Oracle’s debt climbed to about 1.28 percentage points a year, its highest since March 2009, amid heavy tech bond issuance and mounting worries over an AI-industry bubble, Bloomberg reports. The measure rose nearly 0.03 from the previous day, and has more than tripled from 0.36 in June. Meanwhile, Oracle was initiated with an 'Overweight' rating at Wells Fargo, price target of USD 280/shr (last close USD 201.10/shr). The firm believes Oracle will emerge as the leader in the AI "super-cycle", noting Oracle has booked nearly half a trillion dollars of AI deals and is in the "pole position" with key accounts like OpenAI, xAI, Meta and TikTok.


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  Okta (OKTA) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 0.82 (exp. 0.76), Revenue 742mln (exp. 730.4mln); RPO 4.292bln +17% Y/Y, cRPO +13% Y/Y at 2.328bln. The CEO said results were supported by strength with large customers, adoption of new products and strong cash flow. Sees Q4 EPS at 0.84–0.85 (exp. 0.84), Q4 revenue of 748–750mln (exp. 738.7mln), and cRPO of 2.445–2.450bln, +9% Y/Y. Raised FY25 EPS view to 3.43–3.44 (exp. 3.37) and lifted FY26 revenue outlook to 2.906–2.908bln (exp. 2.89bln).


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  Box (BOX) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 0.31 (exp. 0.31), Revenue 301mln (exp. 298.9mln); RPO +18% Y/Y at 1.5bln (short-term 837mln +14%, long-term 680mln +25%), and billings +12% Y/Y at USD 296mln. The CEO said demand reflects rapid enterprise adoption of Box’s AI-powered Intelligent Content Management platform, with customers seeking a unified, secure and AI-integrated environment for unstructured data. For Q4, sees EPS 0.44 (exp. 0.35) and revenue of 304mln (exp. 306.7mln). For FY26, it guides to EPS of 1.28 (exp. 1.31) and revenue of 1.175bln (exp. 1.18bln).


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  Pure Storage (PSTG) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.58 (exp. 0.58), Revenue 964.5mln (exp. 956.48mln). The company noted strong uptake as customers adopt its Enterprise Data Cloud for AI-driven data accessibility. Sees Q4 revenue at 1.02–1.04bln (exp. 1.02bln) and adj. operating income at 220–230mln. Raised FY26 revenue outlook to 3.63–3.64bln (exp. 3.62bln) and lifted FY26 adj. operating income view to 629–639mln (prev. saw 605–625mln). Said it is evaluating additional business model options for its hyperscaler business that may alter FY27 gross margin economics relative to FY26.


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  Asana (ASAN) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.07 (exp. 0.06), Revenue 201mln (exp. 198.78mln). The CEO said the quarter showed solid execution with improving NRR and momentum in AI Studio, adding that new AI Teammates are delivering early productivity gains for customers. For Q4, sees adj. EPS 0.07 (exp. 0.06) and revenue at 204–206mln (exp. 203.2mln). Raises FY26 adj. EPS view to 0.25–0.26 (exp. 0.24) and lifted FY26 revenue guidance to 789–791mln (exp. 786.34mln).


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  GitLab (GTLB) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 0.26 (exp. 0.20), Revenue 244.4mln (exp. 239.3mln); customers >USD 5k ARR 10,475 (+10% Y/Y), customers >USD 100k ARR 1,405 (+23% Y/Y), total RPO +27% Y/Y at USD 1.0bln, cRPO +28% Y/Y at USD 659.1mln. The CEO said platform engagement is rising as GitLab underpins secure, high-quality software delivery and accelerates end-to-end workflows in an AI-driven environment. Appointed Jessica Ross as CFO, effective 15th January. For Q4, sees EPS between 0.22–0.23 (exp. 0.23) and revenue at 251–252mln (exp. 251.9mln). For FY26, guides EPS between 0.95–0.96 (exp. 0.84) and revenue at 946–947mln (exp. 942mln).


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  Astera Labs (ALAB) - Received positive commentary from the sell-side after the Amazon ReInvent event. Morgan Stanley keeps their 'Overweight' rating and USD 210 PT, saying that while Trainium 3 opportunity has been clear, Amazon's ReInvent highlights that Trainium 4 will use both UALink and NV Link Fusion, and both of these are opportunities for Astera. Moreover, Amazon's use of NVLink Fusion caused a tailspin in Astera Labs' stock, but it is actually incremental, and the company is likely to have significant potential content for both UALink and NVLink Fusion.


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  ASML (ASML) - BofA raised its ASML PT to USD 1,331 (prev. 1,092) and kept its 'Buy' rating. The firm added ASML to its 'Europe 1' list while removing ASM International (ASMIY) and Infineon (IFNNY). BofA sees fiscal 2027 as an "inflexion" for ASML and expects the stock to re-rate higher. Lithography intensity will rise as ASML captures a greater share of the wallet in DRAM, and its gross margins should expand on a better mix.


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  Uber (UBER) - Upgraded at Arete to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' with a USD 125 PT (prev. 82). The firm believes investor concerns over competition from autonomous vehicles are overdone. Arete argues that AV providers outside of Tesla (TSLA) lack the ability to manufacture an affordable vehicle at scale. With the majority of Uber's gross bookings coming from consumers with over USD 100k in annual income, Uber has less consumer spending risk compared to peers.


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  Strategy (MSTR) - Strategy’s reserve of USD 1.4bln, funded by share sales, gives it flexibility to meet short-term dividend and interest obligations without selling any of its USD 59bln Bitcoin holdings. The CEO said the reserve covers 21 months of dividends, extendable to two years, easing concerns about forced Bitcoin sales.


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  Elastic (ESTC) - Director Paul Auvil purchased 10K shares on 1st December for a total USD 710K. Elastic's shares rose in extended trading following the disclosure.


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  Seagate (STX) - CEO William Mosley sold 20K shares on 1st December for a total USD 5.42mln.


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  Check Point (CHKP) - Will raise USD 1.5bln via a 5yr zero-coupon convertible bond, with a 25-30% conversion premium. The firm plans to use part of the proceeds to repurchase up to USD 225mln of its stock, with pricing expected after Wednesday’s market close.

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

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  Amazon (AMZN) - AWS will use NVIDIA's NVLink Fusion in its future Trainium4 AI chip and launch AI Factories, while new Trainium3-based servers with 144 chips offer over four times prior computing power and 40% less energy use.


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  Tesla (TSLA) - The number of newly registered BYD cars surpassed that of Tesla in November, the German road traffic agency KBA said; Tesla sold 1,763 cars in Germany in November while BYD sold 4,026 units.


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  US Automakers - The Trump administration plans Wednesday to weaken Biden-era fuel efficiency standards set in June 2024, affecting Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM) and Stellantis (STLA). Aimed at reducing electric vehicle promotion, the change challenges rules projected to save USD 23bln and cut 710mln metric tons of emissions by 2050.


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  American Eagle (AEO) - AEO shares rose after it beat quarterly expectations and issued stronger holiday guidance alongside an upgraded full-year forecast. Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 0.53 (exp. 0.44), Revenue 1.36bln (exp. 1.32bln); total comp sales +4%, with Aerie comps +11% and American Eagle comps +1%. The CEO said decisive actions across merchandising, marketing and operations drove a significant trend improvement, with strong momentum carrying into Q4 and a record Thanksgiving weekend. Raised Q4 operating income guidance to 155–160mln (prev. 125–130mln), now based on comp sales of +8–9% with similar total revenue growth. FY adjusted operating income guidance increased to 303–308mln (from 255–265mln), assuming low single-digit comp sales versus prior flat expectations.


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  Macy's (M) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.09 (exp. -0.15), Revenue 4.71bln (exp. 4.56bln), Comp sales +2.5% on owned basis (exp. -0.8%), +3.2% on owned-plus-license-plus marketplace basis (exp. -0.5%). FY Revenue view 21.475-21.625bln (prev. 21.15-21.45bln, exp. 21.33bln); FY Comp sales view (owned plus licensed plus market place) flat to +0.5% vs 2024 (prev. down -1.5% to -0.5%).


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  Rivian Automotive (RIVN) - The NHTSA said Rivian will recall 34,824 US vehicles due to a damaged seat belt pretension cable that may fail to properly restrain the driver's seat belt, increasing crash injury risk.


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  Nike (NKE) - Restructuring its senior leadership as part of its turnaround plan, creating a COO role and elevating the heads of its four geographic regions to the senior leadership team while refocusing on performance sportswear and athletes, WSJ reports.


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  Inditex (IDEXY) - November sales accelerated, with revenue rising 10.6% in the four weeks to 1st December (ex-FX), following 8.4% growth at constant currencies in Q3, showing resilience despite weakening consumer sentiment affecting most fashion retailers.


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  Hugo Boss (BOSSY) - Delayed its growth ambition to 2027; expects currency-adjusted sales to drop by a mid- to high-single-digit percentage in 2026 as it launches a new strategy, with EBIT seen at EUR 300–350mln (below expectations), before returning to growth the following year.


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  Puma (PUMSY) - Cautious mention in a Bloomberg opinion piece, which notes that the sports apparel maker is a weak target for Anta due to its poor performance in both performance and style segments, though potentially attractive only if cheap.

HEALTHCARE

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  ACA Subsidies - Obamacare subsidies appear likely to expire at the end of the month as Congress remains deadlocked, risking a sharp rise in health insurance premiums, Bloomberg said. More than 20mln Americans could see their costs more than double from 1st January.


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  Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) - Cut FY25 EPS view to 1.94-2.04 (exp. 2.35, prev. 2.35-2.45). Thereafter, BofA downgraded ACHC to 'Underperform' from 'Neutral' with a USD 13 PT (prev. 21.50) on the earnings downgrade and applied a lower multiple given the risk of additional litigation costs/ settlements and higher leverage.


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  Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) - Upgraded at Morgan Stanley to 'Overweight' from 'Equal Weight' with a USD 516 PT (prev. 438). The firm is taking a more positive stance on the company's kidney franchise pipeline, including Pove and Inaxaplin. If the drugs are successful in Phase 3, with key data coming in 2026, they will accelerate Vertex's earnings and revenue growth and drive diversification away from cystic fibrosis.


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  Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) - Downgraded at Morgan Stanley to 'Equal Weight' from 'Overweight' with PT unchanged at USD 767. The firm sees a balanced risk/reward pending further visibility on the company's pipeline diversification.


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  Thermo Fisher (TMO) - Expanded its bioprocessing capabilities across Asia with a new Bioprocess Design Centre in Hyderabad and enlarged centres in Incheon and Singapore.


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  Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) - Announced continuation of ADEPT-2 Phase 3 study in psychosis associated with Alzheimer's disease.


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  Eisai (ESAIY), Biogen (BIIB) - Eisai and Biogen reported clinical data showing lecanemab’s binding to Abeta protofibrils in cerebrospinal fluid, indicating target engagement and PF mobilisation from brain parenchyma. Placebo correlations between CSF PF and neurodegeneration biomarkers were absent with treatment, supporting reduced neurotoxicity and reinforcing lecanemab as the only Alzheimer’s therapy targeting PF and Abeta plaques.

FINANCIALS

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  Prudential (PRU) - Considering the sale of its stake in Alexander Forbes, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter.


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  Citigroup (C) - Hired Jillian Snyder as the head of capital introductions for North America, Reuters reports, citing a person familiar with the matter. Synder, who joins from Bank of America, will oversee a team helping hedge fund clients connect to investors.


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  Bank of America (BAC) - The RBI approved the appointment of Vikram Sahu as CEO of Bank of America in India, according to Reuters, citing an internal memo.


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  HSBC Holdings (HSBC) - Appointed Brendan Nelson as chair after serving as interim chair since the start of October. Nelson has previously spent 25 years at KPMG and served as a non-executive director at BP and NatWest. CEO Elhedery said he would stay until the board finds a long-term candidate to replace Sir Mark Tucker.


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  Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) - Said on Tuesday it will buy rival insurance broker CAC Group in a USD 1.03bln cash-and-stock deal, Reuters reports.

UTILITIES

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  Valero Energy (VLO) - Plans to perform upgrades to the large crude distillation unit at its 380k bpd Port Arthur, Texas refinery in February, Reuters reports, citing people familiar with the plant’s operations.


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  Vistra Corp (VST) - Upgraded to BBB- (from BB+) by S&P, which cited a stronger risk profile supported by a nuclear power sales deal, natural gas asset purchases and solid hedging of future output. The company is a major US power-sector beneficiary of the AI boom.


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  Nuclear Energy - The US awarded USD 800mln to support small nuclear reactor development, giving Holtec and Tennessee Valley Authority USD 400mln each to build Generation III+ projects. The move forms part of the Trump administration’s drive to speed deployment of advanced reactors to meet rising power demand.

INDUSTRIALS

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  Airbus (EADSY) - Lowered its 2025 delivery target to 790 jets (from 820), after issues with its A320 model, according to a filing, while keeping its financial targets unchanged. It has so far delivered 585 aircraft through October.


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  UPS (UPS) - Families of victims of the UPS MD-11 cargo jet crash in Louisville on 4th November plan to file a wrongful death lawsuit, after an NTSB preliminary report found fatigue cracks in the left pylon, Reuters reports. The crash killed 14 people.


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  Old Dominion (ODFL) - Reported November revenue per day fell 4.4% Y/Y as LTL tons per day dropped 10.0%, driven by 9.4% fewer shipments and 0.6% lower weight per shipment. QTD LTL revenue per hundredweight rose 5.9% and 5.2% ex-fuel surcharges.


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  Trane Technologies (TT) - Agreed to acquire Stellar Energy International’s Stellar Energy Digital business, which provides turnkey liquid-to-chip cooling solutions. The deal, subject to closing conditions and regulatory approval, is expected to be completed in early 2026.

ENERGY

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  Inventories - Weekly API data reportedly showed headline crude stocks posting a surprise build of +2.5mln bbls (exp. -0.8mln), Cushing stocks drew down by -0.1mln bbls, distillate inventories saw a larger than expected build of +2.9mln bbls (exp. +0.7mln), while gasoline stocks also posted a larger than expected build of +3.1mln bbls (exp. +1.5mln). The more widely followed EIA inventory report will be published later today.


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  China-Iran - China’s independent refiners increased intake of Iranian crude from onshore tanks and idling ships after receiving new import quotas late last month, Bloomberg reports. Several Shandong-based processors drew from bonded storage at ports and refineries, with much of the oil purchased before the quota allocation.


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  EU-Russia - The EU finalised a deal to phase out Russian gas imports by 2027, accelerating its post-Ukraine-invasion shift to alternative suppliers, including the US and the Middle East. Although purchases halved after 2022, Russian gas still provided about one-fifth of Europe’s imports.


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  China Petrochemicals - A surge in new Chinese petrochemical plants is heightening fears of increased exports pressuring producers already facing oversupply, Bloomberg reports. China has built seven large petrochemical hubs over the last decade, overtaking the US in ethylene and polyethylene production. Capacity growth aimed at self-sufficiency is contributing to a global glut that may widen with further planned plants.

COMMUNICATIONS

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  Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), Netflix (NFLX), Comcast (CMCSA) - Netflix’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming unit is expected to lower consumer costs by bundling Netflix and HBO Max, according to sources cited by Reuters. The vast majority of Netflix users also subscribe to HBO Max, the sources said. Elsewhere, Comcast is seeking to merge NBCUniversal with Warner Bros. Discovery after making a renewed offer for part of Warner Bros. that would give it control of a combined entity, Bloomberg reports.


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  Paramount Skydance (PSKY) - Paramount Skydance has a ‘plan B’ if Netflix wins auction for Warner Bros. Discovery: Go hostile and appeal to WBD shareholders, according to NY Post's Gsaparino.


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  Alphabet (GOOG) - Alphabet's YouTube will comply with Australia’s under-16s social media ban by automatically signing out users under 16 on 10th December, when the law takes effect. Separately, Waymo receives a negative mention in the WSJ, which reports that witnesses in San Francisco reported Waymo self-driving cars adopting aggressive, taxi-like driving, including simultaneous lane changes in a tunnel; one claimed that two Waymos zigzagged ahead of her in September, contrasting with their previously cautious behaviour.

CONSUMER STAPLES

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  Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) Q3 2025 (USD): EPS 1.20 (exp. 1.08), Revenue 4.75bln (exp. 4.71bln); SSS total: 4.2% (exp. +4.3%). Guidance: Q4 EPS 2.40-2.60 (exp. 2.41), FY EPS 5.60-5.80 (exp. 5.53). Revising FY comp sales view to 5.0-5.5% and sees FY net sales between 19.35-19.45bln (exp. 19.4bln).


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  Walmart (WMT) - CEO Doug McMillan sold 19.4K shares on 28th November for a total USD 2.13mln.


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  Unilever (UL) - An audit of the Ben & Jerry’s found deficiencies in financial controls, governance and other compliance policies, according to Magnum, which will own the brand after its spin-off next week, Reuters reports.

MATERIALS

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  Vulcan Energy Resources (VULNF) - Raised AUD 3.9bln to finance its Lionheart lithium and geothermal project in Germany’s Upper Rhine Valley, Bloomberg reports. Chief executive Cris Moreno said construction will begin in the coming days, aiming to supply cheap lithium and renewable energy and create Europe’s largest battery-metal resource.

MACRO

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  Fed Chair Job - US President Trump said he would announce his Federal Reserve chair pick in early 2026 after narrowing the field to one candidate. He called Kevin Hassett a “potential” choice, and noted that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declined the role. Chair Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and he may still remain on as a Governor until January 2028. WSJ reported that the Trump administration cancelled interviews with finalists for the Federal Reserve chair role that were due to begin on Wednesday, after Donald Trump again hinted he had chosen his preferred candidate. The meetings with Vice President JD Vance were called off without explanation, with one person citing a scheduling conflict and uncertainty over rescheduling.


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  US Yields - JPMorgan said US Treasuries are unlikely to repeat 2025’s gains because markets expect too many Federal Reserve cuts. It forecasts the 10yr yield will rise to 4.35% by end-2026, vs around 4.1% now. Bloomberg’s survey median projects 4.06% for end-2026.


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  Short-End Issuance - The UK and Japan are shifting towards more short-term borrowing in response to investor demand, reducing interest costs but increasing exposure to rate swings at rollover, Bloomberg reports. The UK cut long-dated bond sales to record lows this year and may expand ultra-short bills, while Japan plans higher short-term issuance following a long-bond rout, the article notes.


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  China Bonds/Yuan - HSBC Asset Management said China’s uneven economic recovery may push the central bank to cut rates next year, with 10yr government bond yields expected to fall 20–25bps in 2026, Bloomberg reports. Elsewhere, China International Capital chief strategist Miao Yanliang said authorities should allow the yuan to appreciate, arguing it would boost consumers’ spending power and ease trade tensions; he described the current period as a potential window of opportunity for such a move.


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  Japan Wages - Japan Council of Metalworkers’ Unions will seek a monthly base pay rise of at least JPY 12,000 (matching last year’s target) in talks running through March, after securing a record JPY 10,169 increase this year, Bloomberg reports.


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  Aussie Growth - Australia’s economy grew 0.4% in Q3 (exp. 0.7%), while annual growth reached 2.1% Y/Y, the quickest since Q3 2022. Growth was driven by strong domestic demand and private investment, while net trade subtracted 0.1ppts. Elsewhere, RBA Governor Bullock told a parliamentary hearing that the bank is watching inflation closely and is prepared to act if price pressures strengthen; she said more data in the coming months will show whether persistent demand is pushing inflation higher, which could affect the future path of monetary policy.

TRADE

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  US-India - India’s rupee fell past 90 per dollar to 90.1575 amid delays in a US trade deal, 50% tariffs and strong imports. The RBI sold dollars as the Nifty 50 dropped 0.4%. Barclays, HDFC Securities, Kotak Securities and Shinhan Bank warned of further weakness toward 90.30–91. Traders now eye the RBI’s three-day policy meeting (starting 3rd December); a strong GDP beat has dimmed early rate-cut hopes, while US–India trade uncertainty, stretched valuations, weigh on sentiment. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that Putin’s visit to India highlights New Delhi’s effort to balance ties with the US and Russia; the trip underscores India’s longstanding relationship with Moscow while managing its deepening partnership with Washington.


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  US-Brazil - US President Trump said he spoke with Brazil’s President Lula about US sanctions on Brazilian officials and discussed trade, signalling improving bilateral relations. Trump said the conversation was “very good” and that he “liked” Lula.

GEOPOLITICS

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  Drug Cartels - US President Trump said the US will soon begin land strikes against drug cartels in Venezuela and elsewhere, expanding a campaign previously focused on suspected trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific. He said land targets were “much easier” and that the operations would start “very soon.”


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  UK-China - China criticised the UK for repeatedly delaying a planning decision on its proposed new London embassy, calling it deeply regrettable. The dispute comes ahead of PM Starmer’s expected visit next month.

03 Dec 2025 - 13:36- EnergyData- Source: Newsquawk