CRYPTO UPDATE: Bitcoin briefly slips below USD 100k as sentiment sours

24 Hour Prices:

• 
  Bitcoin is slightly lower/flat, taking a breather following hefty losses seen over the last couple of days; the digital gold slipped below USD 100k in the prior session to make a trough of USD 98,898 vs currently USD 101.5k. The decline has extended across the crypto complex; Ethereum has dipped below USD 3.5k and Solana below USD 150.


• Whilst there is no specific crypto-specific catalyst for the pressure seen in the crypto space, it does follow the hefty tech-declines seen in the equities space, as fears of an AI-bubble grows. Other key reasons for the move lower include; a) hawkish repricing at the Fed, after Chair Powell raised doubts of a December cut, b) underwhelming Trump-Xi meeting, albeit a 1 yr trade truce was agreed, c) ongoing US gov't shutdown, which has extended to the longest in history, d) “debasement trade” unwinds as DXY rises back above 100.00 and spot gold pulls back from ATHs, e) risks surrounding the US Supreme Court hearing.


• 
  From a technical perspective, Bitcoin currently trades around an old ATH (USD 101.4k); other key points of support would include the round USD 100k mark and then USD 99,810 thereafter. Between a USD 101k to USD 105k band, there is a bit of a gap, with not really any key levels of note. The 14-day RSI (32.11) sits just above “oversold” territory, after dipping from the “neutral” zone in the prior session.


• Tides can turn for Bitcoin and the broader complex, as markets await the monthly ADP Employment figures and then the ISM Services metrics thereafter. Added focus has been put on the ADP metrics this week, given there is no NFP report this week – on account of the US government shutdown. (See below for previews)

Analyst/bank commentary

• 
  GS analysts highlight that over the last nine years, only once has Bitcoin traded negatively; this was also broken this year, with BTC falling roughly 3.9%. In terms of daily transactions (M/M); Bitcoin -7.7%, ETH -5%, Solana -2.6%.

In the news:

• 
  In New York, Zohran Mamdani has won the NYC mayoral election; he defeated Andrew Cuomo who had previously pledge to create a Chief Innovation Officer to lead blockchain and crypto-related innovation in the region. (The Block)


• 
  Bitwise CIO said “The process of insiders selling and institutions buying takes time. Only after that transition has hit a certain balance can the stock resume its upward march”. (Newswires)


• 
  Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs dumped circa. USD 800mln, in the recent sell-off. (Yahoo Finance)


• 
  Canada is set to produce legislation which would require stablecoin issuers to maintain a sufficient amount of asset reserves. (Morningstar)


• Analysts at The Coin Bureau have suggested that whilst USD 100k marks a key psychological level, it does not necessarily suggest a structural shift for the complex. (The Block)

Macro schedule:

• 
  US ADP: US non-farm payrolls were scheduled for next Friday, 7th November, but due to the ongoing US Government shutdown, it is highly unlikely we will receive the data and will mean we are yet to receive either the September or October jobs report. On this, at Fed Chair Powellʼs press conference on Wednesday, where he struck a very hawkish tone, he said he does not see weakness in the job market accelerating, but highlighted that they haven't seen the September payroll report.


• 
  CHINESE TRADE BALANCE (FRI): There are currently no expectations for Chinaʼs October Trade Balance data. Last monthʼs release showed a narrower surplus, with exports and imports growth both surprising to the upside, with the data released following the Chinese mid-Autumn festival. According to ING, trade growth is expected to moderate in October, with exports seen slowing to 4.0% Y/Y (prev. 8.3%) and imports edging down to 3.2% Y/Y (prev. 7.4%), resulting in a rebound of the surplus to around USD 101bln (prev. USD 90.45bln). Desks note that the easing reflects a normalisation in global shipping activity after earlier frontloading ahead of US tariff risks.

Full previews found in the Newsquawk Research Suite

Liquidation data, via Coinglass:

• Bitcoin (BTC) 24h long: USD 429.65mln / 24h short: USD 56.96mln; Longs were heavily liquidated, indicating broad bullish exposure unwound sharply.


• Ethereum (ETH) 24h long: USD 485.29mln / 24h short: USD 86.82mln


• Solana (SOL) 24h long: USD 79.75mln / 24h short: USD 12.48mln


• Ripple (XRP) 24h long: USD 32.14mln / 24h short: USD 5.70mln


• Hype (HYPE) 24h long: USD 15.20mln / 24h short: USD 2.30mln

05 Nov 2025 - 13:03- ForexData- Source: Newsquawk